Study Shows Climate Models Can’t Predict Rain Or Drought
Study Shows Climate Models Can’t Predict Rain Or Drought
http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/07/study-shows-climate-models-cant-predict-rain-or-drought/
The new research ‘certainly adds fuel to the fiery debate’
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Climate Skeptics turn tables on ‘attribution’ studies – Ask: Is ‘global warming’ causing a decrease in ‘extreme weather’ events?
Washington DC — Despite the fact that the climate data clearly shows declining or no trends in many major indicators of “extreme weather” like tornadoes, hurricanes, rainfall, droughts and heatwaves, climate activists are once again seemingly trying to link every storm to “global warming.”
Man-made global warming proponents are touting yet another study claiming to attribute “extreme weather” to man-made global warming. See: Scientists: ‘Links Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Clear‘
While such studies rely on modeling claims and other assorted statistical methods to “attribute” “global warming” to specific storms, these studies never examine why “extreme weather” is not increasing. The Associated Press is claiming that “Starting in 2004, dozens of complex peer-reviewed studies found the odds of some extreme events — but by no means all — were goosed by man-made climate change.”
Yes, the AP is claiming that “complex” studies found “the odds of some extreme events” are being “goosed by man-made climate change.” Complex? Odds? Goosed? Really?
The AP’s resident climate activist writer Seth Borenstein continued: “When it comes to heat waves, droughts, heavy rain and some other events, scientists who do rigorous research can say whether they was more likely or more severe because of man-made global warming.” Rigorous? (Note: AP’s Borenstein relies on a small cadre of activist scientists to support the “rigorous” claims. Activists like UN IPCC’s Michael Oppenheimer, David Titley and Katharine Hayhoe)
Climate Depot’s Rebuttal:
If “global warming” can cause specific storms or extreme weather events to occur, how come “global warming” can’t cause the significant lack of “extreme weather?” NOAA: Number of major tornadoes in 2015 was ‘one of the lowest on record’ – Tornadoes below average for 4th year in a row –
Is “global warming” causing a decrease in “extreme weather” events? A 2015 study found just that. See: New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.
The media is indulging in what
Drenched by ‘March Miracle,’ Northern California reservoirs inch toward capacity
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-northern-california-reservoir-levels-20160314-story.html
“I don’t know if people here will be dancing in their cubicles when [Oroville] hits the historic average, but it will be the first time it’s done that for the duration of the drought. That is reason to be joyous,” Carlson said.
According to the National Weather Service, it rained nearly a foot in El Dorado County and more than nine inches in Shasta County between Friday and Monday mornings. Since March 1, the Shasta reservoir has received more than 16 inches of rain.
On March 6, Lake Oroville saw its biggest single-day rise in 12 years, DWR reported.
If the soggy month continues, both reservoirs could actually fill to the brim by April, officials say. Neither reservoir has been full since about the beginning of the drought, officials said.
Other reservoirs across the state are also doing well. The once-anemic Lake Folsom is now at 116% of historical average for the date and at 69% of total capacity.…
Der Spiegel: Even Warmist Scientists Dismiss Climate Change As Cause Of Syrian Conflict, Refugee Crisis
Spiegel: Even Warmist Scientists Dismiss Climate Change As Cause Of Syrian Conflict, Refugee Crisis
Again today we see yet another example of why alarmist climate scientists, those with the habit of spreading doom and gloom visions, are simply not credible. Photo: Tomas Castelazo, CC BY 3.0 Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski reports at Spiegel on the claim that climate change is the big factor behind the Syria conflict: Syria: scientists dispute climate change as cause of war. A number of activists and some climate scientists have claimed or suggested that the war in Syria was due to the 2006-2010 drought (caused by man-made climate change, of course). Fortunately many experts have come out called this claim a rather wild stretch of the imagination. And now even German warmist scientists have come out and dismissed the claim as well, citing a lack of evidence and an array of other factors at play. The German Climate Consortium (DKK) issued a press release on the subject two weeks ago. According to this press release, Dr. Paul Becker, Vice President of the DWD German Weather Service, reminds that climate change itself is only one of many factors involved in migration and conflict, and that the issue is very complex and needs to be researched more. Moreover, according to peace researcher Dr. Christiane Fröhlich, results of a survey of Syrian farmers and workers who were hard hit by the 2006-2010 drought showed: The often claimed causality between drought, migration and conflict outbreak is not tenable. Though the migration of people rose domestically during the drought, neither was the drought the single conflict initiator nor was it ‘climate migrants’ who sparked the protests.” The press release adds that the conflict was in fact mostly due to bad policies by the Assad regime. Bojanowski adds: When it comes to who to blame for hunger, the climate argument enables politicians to find guilty parties outside of their countries when in fact they themselves are responsible because of their mismanagement.” On whether climate change is having an impact on droughts worldwide, The press release adds (emphasis added): The impact of climate change on the developments with respect to the dangers of drought, according to Paul Pecker, is not statistically significantly verifiable due to the high range of variation in precipitation.” This is yet another surprisingly reasonable statement coming from a German scientist who has been known to be …
Study: Parched Earth soaks up water, slowing sea level rise
http://news.yahoo.com/parched-earth-soaks-water-slowing-sea-level-rise-231245199.html
Miami (AFP) – As glaciers melt due to climate change, the increasingly hot and parched Earth is absorbing some of that water inland, slowing sea level rise, NASA experts said Thursday.
Satellite measurements over the past decade show for the first time that the Earth’s continents have soaked up and stored an extra 3.2 trillion tons of water in soils, lakes and underground aquifers, the experts said in a study in the journal Science.
This has temporarily slowed the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent, it said.
“We always assumed that people’s increased reliance on groundwater for irrigation and consumption was resulting in a net transfer of water from the land to the ocean,” said lead author J.T. Reager of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
“What we didn’t realize until now is that over the past decade, changes in the global water cycle more than offset the losses that occurred from groundwater pumping, causing the land to act like a sponge — at least temporarily.”…
Scientists: ‘Severe droughts experienced recently…can no longer be seen as purely natural hazards’ – Land use & water management contribute
Changes to the way people use the water and the landscape contribute to extreme water shortages.
The University’s Water Science Research Group is leading key researchers from 13 organisations in eight countries to redefine how the world should study and tackle drought. The researchers propose broadening the definition of drought to include water shortage caused and made worse — or sometimes improved — by human activity.
…severe droughts experienced recently in countries such as China, Brazil and the United States can no longer be seen as purely natural hazards
The current California drought has severely affected the state’s environment and economy. Storing water in reservoirs and extracting groundwater increase evaporation and decrease groundwater levels, making the drought worse. It demonstrates how strongly water and society are intertwined during drought periods.
Europe suffered a severe drought last summer with high heat causing soils and plants to dry out helping to spread wildfires. Agricultural and hydropower production decreased, whilst rivers fell to record low levels and inland water transport shut down in some places. Water and drought policies vary across the EU and more work is needed to understand their influence on drought.…
Extreme Weather Expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.: Despite claims of ‘warmest ever’ – 2015 ‘had the lowest catastrophe losses in a generation’
Roger Pielke Jr., environmental studies professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, said that there were fewer extreme weather events despite the warm temperatures. Climate-change groups have argued that global warming contribute to hurricanes and other weather-related disasters.
“It’d be great if just one journalist (any!) would note that 2015 — warmest year ever — also had the lowest catastrophe losses in a generation,” Mr. Pielke said on Twitter.
…
UN: Weather-Related Disasters Occur Almost Daily
…Drought buster? Up to 10 feet of snow this week for California’s Sierra Nevada
Drought buster? Up to 10 feet of snow this week for California’s Sierra Nevada
Here is some good news for drought-stricken California; the latest forecast model output from WeatherBell suggests that the Sierra Nevada snow-pack will get a fresh dump of up to 10 feet of snow. The Sierra snow-pack has already been reported as above normal (at 136 percent of normal) in the most recent snow survey conducted by the California […]
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Claim: ‘In America, 200 Million People Will Suffer ‘Psychological Distress’ From ‘Climate Change’
A report published by the National Wildlife Foundation finds that the majority of Americans can expect to suffer mental health problems as a result of global warming and warns that our mental health system is not equipped to handle it.
“The interplay between the climate realities we likely face and the potential psychological fallout from them was the subject of a conference convened in Washington D.C., in March 2009,” write Lise van Susteren, MD, and Kevin J. Doyle, JD, introducing their work. “A highly respected group of experts offered insights. Their thoughts, recommendations and supporting evidence are presented in this report.”
“The Psychological Effects of Global Warming on the United States,” examines the hitherto undiscussed effects of increasingly prevalent extreme weather, sea level rise, drought and other impacts of climate change on mental health. How will we cope with a changing world?
“The incidences of mental and social disorders will rise steeply. These will include depressive and anxiety disorders, post traumatic stress disorders, substance abuse, suicides, and widespread outbreaks of violence. Children, the poor, the elderly, and those with existing mental health disorders are especially vulnerable and will be hardest hit.”
The report’s findings are the subject of the first episode of Bill Nye’s new show, “Global Meltdown.”
He compares our gradual acceptance of the realities of global warming to the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.…