25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…
25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…
It has by now become common practice for just about any and every unusual weather occurrence, extreme temperature anomaly, or seismic event to be somehow, someway linked to the human practice of using energy derived from fossil fuels. No hurricane, flood, drought, storm, wildfire … is spared from potential anthropogenic implication.
Last week, a named hurricane (Hermine) that ultimately devolved into a tropical storm landed along the Florida coast — the first landfall in 11 years. As expected, the usual suspects reflexively blamed the storm on humans.
When a volcano erupts, the headliners are quick to point out that humans have made volcanic eruptions more likely.
When wildfires consume the landscape, human-caused warming is claimed to be fueling them.
In one year, human-caused warming can be said to be a cause of catastrophic drought in Texas.
“2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says”
A few years later, human-caused warming leads to catastrophic flooding in Texas.
Even shifting plates beneath the Earth’s crust (earthquakes) can be creatively connected to human-caused climate change.
Those who may dare to question the link between humanity’s growing oil, gas, and coal consumption and a weather or tectonic event are swiftly called “climate deniers,” and the substantive discussion that never happened (and was never going to happen) ends then and there.
In the 1970s, extreme weather events were blamed on global cooling
Interestingly, in the 1970s it was common for severe weather anomalies (for example, the deadly catastrophic drought plodding throughout the continent of Africa) to be linked to the global cooling occurring at that time. In 1974, NOAA acknowledged that many climate scientists had linked the drought and other extreme weather anomalies to the -0.5°C drop in temperatures that had occurred from the 1940s to 1970s.
“In the Sahelian zone of Africa south of the Sahara, the countries of Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Upper Volta are enduring a drought that in some areas has been going on for more than six years now, following some 40 previous years of abundant monsoon rainfall. And the drought is spreading—eastward into Ehtiopia and
Serial arsonist behind California wildfires caught as Gore blames ‘global warming’
The California wildfires still raging out of control are the work of a serial arsonist and not the result of global warming. Yesterday, officials arrested the dangerous firebug accused of setting 17 of California’s wildfires as firefighters battle the still-raging firestorms across the state. Previously, global warming alarmists said the wildfires were a result of the long-running California drought that has left a lot of dry tinder on the ground. Numerous studies have shown the California drought is entirely natural and part of a regular cyclic pattern for the state.
Serial arsonist arrested
The man accused of setting the California wildfires is Damian Anthony Pashilk, who has been arraigned on 17 counts of serial arson. Unfortunately, the fires are still raging and the worst is yet to come. Fireseason for much of California is September through October when ground kindling is at its driest.
The wildfire that began as a small brush fire has also forced California into a state of emergency. As of today, the wildfire inSan Bernardino, dubbed the Blue Cut fire, has burned about 18,000 acres and drove 82,000 people from their homes. It was so hot it melted bikes and destroyed thousands of homes.
With the ongoing drought, summer heat, and strong winds, there was even a firenado spotted. Another fire, called the Clayton Fire, has wiped out roughly 4,000 acres and 175 homes since Saturday. While many residents are happy that Pashilkis behind bars, he has left a trail of misery in his wake. He has started at least 17 fires across the state, with many of them still burning.
Part of a larger picture?
Prior to his capture, some people were speculating that the wildfires were part of a larger global warming picture. Some said that the fire season had started earlier this year and blamed it on the drought, high winds, and higher temperatures.
But it turns out an arsonist had his finger on the scales. Without Pashilk setting the fires, this likely
Claim: ‘Brexit vote is result of climate refugee crisis’
There has been much discussion recently about Britain’s vote in a referendum held June 23 to exit from the European Union.
There has been little talk, however, about what likely was one of the major contributors to the Brexitvote’s outcome – climate change.
Immigration was the major concern driving those who voted against remaining in the EU.
But where are those immigrants coming from?
Although most of the recent immigrants to Britain have come from India, Poland and Pakistan, the latest immigration crisis has been the result of the EU’s inadequate response to refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war.
And what caused the Syrian civil war? According to Scientific American, a study published last year points the finger at the worst drought on record as being a major factor.
Unusually hot and dry weather resulted in crop failures, forcing people off of the land and raising food prices across the Middle East.
People rebelled in the so-called “Arab Spring.” Most of the rebellions failed to achieve any positive results. In Syria, the rebellion resulted in a protracted and violent government backlash, as well as considerable foreign involvement.
The destruction has forced millions to flee to other Middle East countries and to Europe.
If a person accepts that climate change is happening, then the mass movement of people is only beginning.
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that climate change will continue to make the Middle East hotter and drier.
That will mean that, instead of hundreds of thousands of refugees heading towards Europe, there could be tens of millions.
Similar mass migrations would happen elsewhere in the world.
Warmist Joe Romm at ThinkProgress: Global Warming Caused Brexit
It only took four days after U.K. voters chose to leave the European Union for a liberal climate scientist and eco-activist to blame the whole event on — you guessed it — global warming.
Joe Romm, a climate scientist and writer for the liberal blog ThinkProgress, wrote an article Monday arguing the so-called “Brexit” and the rise of GOP candidate Donald Trump are driven by global warming.
“We’ve known for a while that there are scientific tipping points beyond which certain climate impacts — like the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the thawing of the carbon-rich permafrost — become unstoppable,” Romm wrote. “But it appears there may also be political tipping points, where certain climate impacts cause so much widespread harm simultaneously that they simply fragment the world.”
“In this fatally-fractured future, countries focus almost exclusively on the ever-worsening climate devastation to their country, destroying the possibility of collective action by the world to help those worst off,” he wrote.
Romm goes on to argue the Brexit movement was largely fueled by “scaremongering around the Syrian refugee crisis” — a crisis he says caused by global warming. Romm wrote:
The Syrian migrant crisis “had an outsized impact on the Brexit,” as NBC News political director Chuck Todd said Friday. You can see that in the pro-Brexit poster from the U.K. Independence Party (above) — which became a major advertising campaign of the referendum — featuring thousands of male refugees streaming from Croatia into Slovenia last October.
It bears repeating that a major 2015 study confirmed: “Human-caused climate change was a major trigger of Syria’s brutal civil war.” This study found that global warming made Syria’s 2006 to 2010 drought two to three times more likely. “While we’re not saying the drought caused the war,” the lead author explained. “We are saying that it certainly contributed to other factors — agricultural collapse and mass migration among them — that caused the uprising.”
And that mass migration ultimately fueled the mass refugee crisis of the last two years, a crisis the world has utterly failed to figure out how to handle.
Environmentalists and some scientists have tried to link the Syrian civil war to man-made global warming for years. The argument has been repeated by Democratic presidential candidates and even Secretary of State John Kerry as evidence for why the world needs to get serious about a warming climate.…
Climate Activist: Civil Unrest from Weather, Food Scarcity Played Role in Arab Spring, Syrian Conflict
…(CNSNews.com) – At a discussion on climate change and food security on Tuesday, an advocate of their connection to national security said both played a role in the unrest and violence taking place across the Middle East and in parts of Africa, and claimed they also affected the French Revolution and the parting of the Red Sea as told in the Old Testament.
“We can look at Syria and what happened with Syria and the movement of populations into Damascus, the disaffected people – the rise, certainly, of conflict there,” Jon White, president of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership, said at the Center for American Progress (CAP) in Washington, D.C.
“You can look at the Arab Spring and the fact that the changing in food prices, again, drove people to be disaffected and uneasy, and led to overthrows of governments in Tunisia and other places,” said White.
White also the influence of extreme weather and food scarcity can be seen as far back as the French Revolution in 1789 and conflicts recorded in the Holy Bible.
“Even going back to the French Revolution there is indications that climate-induced food scarcity and price changes – they were a catalyst for events that happened in the French Revolution,” White said.
“But then, if people still don’t really don’t get some of these conflict, climate food issues, I just go back and say, have you ever heard of the parting of the Red Sea?” White said.
“But how did we get to the parting of the Red Sea?” he asked. “Well, it all started off with a guy named Joseph that many of you might recognize from Joseph and his Technicolor Dream Coat, who was able to predict, to interpret a dream that said there’s going to be seven years of plenty followed by seven years of drought.”
New Paper By Zhou et al Surprises! …Heavy Precipitation Under ‘Global Warming’ Likely ‘Overestimated’
New Paper By Zhou et al Surprises! …Heavy Precipitation Under Global Warming Likely “Overestimated”
Yesterday I posted on Spiegel reporting no precipitation trend changes in Germany from warming. Today’s post once again shows the alleged link is not what we are often told it is. ================================================ Max Planck Institute: Coupling of extreme extreme precipitation to climate warming weaker than feared By Dr. Sebastian Lüning und Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin) A warmer world with more precipitation? That is plausible as warmer air means a higher moisture and water vapor carrying capacity. The risk of droughts thus would be reduced. However, do higher temperatures lead to drastic increase in extreme rainfalls? Some scientists prematurely made up their minds and sold the media their personal opinion of settled science. Here they hide the fact that this is in fact heatedly debated within the science community. Very recently a new paper appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters, authored by Yu Zhou et al of the Max Planck Institute for Physics of Complex Systems. The scientists found errors in the statistical processing of extreme precipitation data. Once corrected, the data show that extreme precipitation have even declined over the past 15 years. When accounting for the past 25 years, they found a much weaker relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature than that found by other groups. Zhou et al conclude that the danger from extreme precipitation events as a consequence of global warming was strongly overestimated and that it must be corrected downwards. In the future extreme rain may even become less. What follows is the paper’s abstract: On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature Employing their newly proposed interannual difference method (IADM), Liu et al. (2009) and Shiu et al. (2012) reported a shocking increase of around 100% K−1 in heavy precipitation with warming global temperature in 1979–2007. Such increase is alarming and prompts us to probe into the IADM. In this study, both analytical derivations and numerical analyses demonstrate that IADM provides no additional information to that of the conventional linear regression, and also, it may give a false indication of dependence. For clarity and simplicity, we therefore recommend linear regression analysis over the IADM for the detection of dependence. We also find that heavy precipitation decreased during the global warming hiatus, and the precipitation dependence on temperature drops by almost 50% when the study period …
Analysis: ‘Anatomy of the false link between forest fires and anthropogenic CO2’
Summary: In this critical review of the scientific literature about fire, I describe how the false notion of a link between forest fires and anthropogenic CO2 was ignited in 2006 by a fatally flawed article promoted in the science-trend-setting magazine Science, and spread like wildfire through the scientific literature and beyond, driven in part by high winds of climate modelling extravagance, while fortunately leaving large unburnt patches. There is no evidentiary basis for such a link. On the contrary, established knowledge about forest fires leads to the conclusion that dedication to teasing out such a link is preposterous: In the present circumstances starting in approximately 1900, the dominant effect is direct human impacts on land use, which causes global fire occurrences to be dramatically less than from the known long-term natural cycles (modern fire deficit). No special circumstances or regions have been correctly identified where forest fire behaviour can be attributed to CO2. Canada’s recent Fort McMurray fire is no exception. The claimed 7 g mean birth weight loss arising from mothers’ general exposure to CO2-driven southern California wildfires, like all such claims, is a product of statistical and conceptual overenthusiasm. I use concepts from the animal-behaviour scientific literature to explain how some scientists and their followers can get so carried away.…
Claim: ‘Climate Change’ Causes More Young Girls to be Raped – ‘Girls had to walk further to fetch water, number of rapes more than doubled’
Claim: Climate Causes More Young Girls to be Raped
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/21/claim-climate-causes-more-young-girls-to-be-raped
Guest essay by Eric Worrall According to Reuters, in Guatemala, young girls don’t get raped because they are stalked by filthy perverts, who are shielded by what appears to be a rape enabling culture; Apparently Climate Change is to blame. Women’s organisations – and funders – are increasingly seeing climate change as a root cause […]
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Women’s organisations – and funders – are increasingly seeing climate change as a root cause of women’s problems
COPENHAGEN, May 20 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Carla Lopez remembers the first time she heard a suggestion that climate change was a factor leading to the rape of young girls.
“I was in Santa Maria Xalapan of Guatemala when a group of women said young girls were being kidnapped and raped because there was a water crisis. It was a revelation,” said the executive director of the Fondo Centroamericano de Mujeres, a women’s fund based in Central America.
In the indigenous Xinca society of Xalapan, men often kidnap and rape young girls before marrying them, Lopez said, and for about a decade, the local women’s group had been campaigning to end this trend.
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As women and girls had to walk further to fetch water, the number of kidnappings and rapes more than doubled over that period, local women said.…
1000 year rainfall study suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse
A study done on… golly, Antarctic Ice, allegedly shows that in the catchment area for Newcastle in NSW, Australia, the last 100 years have been pretty darn nice, compared to the past when droughts and big-wet periods used to last a lot longer.
Set aside, for a moment, that the ice cores are thousands of kilometers away and in a totally different climate, if they are right, if, then natural climate change is much worse than our short climate records are telling us. And if our current records are so inadequate and don’t represent the “old-Normal”, then we have a flying pigs of predicting the “New Normal”. Has the climate changed at all, or is the new one just like the old old one?
Hydroclimatologist and lead author, Dr Carly Tozer from the ACE CRC said the research showed exposure to drought and flood risk was higher than previously estimated.
“The study showed that modern climate records, which are available for the past one hundred years at best, do not capture the full range of rainfall variability that has occurred,” Dr Tozer said.
“The wet and dry periods experienced since 1900 have been relatively mild when we look at the climate extremes of the past millennium.”
“Looking back over the past thousand years, we see that prolonged wet periods and droughts of five years or longer are a regular feature of the climate.”
The press release and interview can tell us that we are “underestimating” the risk of drought and flood, which sounds like the usual “worse than expected” scare story beat up in the media — but it is different. This time we are underestimating the risk of natural causes of floods and droughts:
“Water resources infrastructure in Australia is still mostly designed based on statistics calculated from about the last 100 years of instrumental rainfall and streamflow observations,” Dr Kiem said.
“What this study shows is that existing water management plans likely underestimate the true risk of drought and flood due to the reliance on data and statistics obtained from only the relatively short instrumental period.”
The ABC and The Conversation don’t draw the bleeding obvious next step: If follows — as day after night, that if we’ve underestimated natural climate change — then the models have been overestimating the influence of CO2.…