Oceans are at the ‘edge’ of losing all oxygen: Event could lead to mass sea life extinction that will last a MILLION years I could spend time pointing out the leaps of logic committed below but I will simply look at a conventional commentary on the Toarcian event.
Guest essay by Dr. Patrick J. Michaels It’s hard to say how many punny posts we came up with using those words when Carol Browner was Bill Clinton’s EPA Administrator, but here we use it in the context of a recent Science paper by J-F.
‘Carbon dioxide and global warming changed that’
Natural Forcing Of Arctic Climate
Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists
Three years ago a cogent paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature that was surprisingly candid in its rejection of the position that the substantial warming and sea ice reduction in the Arctic occurring since the late 1970s should be predominantly attributed to anthropogenic forcing.
Dr. Quinhua Ding and 6 co-authors indicated in their paper that internal processes — natural variability associated with planetary waves and the North Atlantic Oscillation — are drivers of the recent Arctic warming and sea ice reduction, concluding that “a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”
“Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks. We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation.”
“Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth’s rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”
Since 2014, there have been several more scientific papers that have been published documenting the significance of natural forcing processes in the Arctic and how they may override a clear detection of an anthropogenic influence.
But 2017 already seems to be an exception. Papers that document the dominance of natural forcing —
Guest post by David Middleton
Sea level rise isn’t something that only future generations will have to deal with. It’s already causing significant challenges. If you doubt that, check out what’s happening in Miami right now.
“Sea levels in South Florida could rise up to two feet over the next four decades”… No they can’t and this is not happening right now.
For sea level to rise “two feet over the next four decades,” it would have to accelerate to the pace of the Holocene Transgression:
It would take an average rate of sea level rise nearly twice that of the Holocene Transgression for sea level to rise more than 1.5 meters (~5 feet) over the remainder of this century.
Sea level isn’t behaving any differently than it has throughout the Holocene.
Sea level was 1-2 meters higher than it currently is during the Holocene Highstand. All of the sea level rise since 1700 is insignificant relative to the natural variability of Holocene sea levels.
Sea level rise in the Miami area is not accelerating and it is rising at a rate of about 1 foot per century.
The satellite data indicate virtually no statistically significant sea level rise in the Miami area:
I intentionally retained the “seasonal terms and mean” and did not smooth the data because the seasonal variability is …
BY REID WILSON – 05/12/17 11:35 AM EDT
Just 5 percent of the United States is experiencing drought conditions, the lowest level of drought here since government scientific agencies began updating the U.S. Drought Monitor on a weekly basis in 2000.
Record rain and snowfall over the winter on the West Coast and heavy spring rains in the Midwest have alleviated some of the worst and longest-lasting drought conditions ever recorded.
That parching, years-long drought came after another rainy period, in 2010, when just 8 percent of the U.S. experienced drought conditions. The boom-and-bust cycle is likely caused by climate change that creates more extreme weather patterns, scientists say.
At its driest point, in September 2012, 20 percent of the nation experienced what climatologists deemed “extreme” drought.
Today, small parts of Southern Georgia and Central Florida are still experiencing extreme drought. The drought has amplified several large wildfires in Georgia and Florida, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said.
Parts of southern Arizona are in the midst of a long-term severe drought, while scattered areas of Texas, Colorado, the Dakotas and the greater Washington, D.C., region are dealing with more moderate water shortages.
No state has experienced the highs and lows more than California. As recently as September, the entire state was experiencing at least some drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and 43 percent of the state experienced extreme drought.
Today, after a rainy winter fueled by a so-called Pineapple Express weather system, more than three-quarters of the state is drought-free. Only the Los Angeles area and some inland counties near the U.S.-Mexico border are overly parched.
“California’s drought was alleviated by atmospheric rivers that brought heavy rains earlier this year,” Matthew Rodell, a NASA hydrologist, said in a statement. “Combine that with recent precipitation across much of the northwestern and central parts of the nation, and the result is a much wetter-than-normal map.”
Now, California faces the opposite problem. Heavy rain and snowfall have damaged systems meant to capture water, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.
The federal government has already said it will send California $274 million to repair the Oroville Dam, where damage to a spillway forced the evacuation of almost 200,000 people in February. Water officials are worried that heavy rains could damage other dams in Northern California, too.…
By Michael Bastasch
A new study examining explanations for the 10- to 15-year “hiatus” in global warming has scientists “more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.”
“In a time coinciding with high-level political negotiations on preventing climate change, skeptical media and politicians were using the apparent lack of warming to downplay the importance of climate change,” researchers with the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IACS) in Switzerland wrote in a study published Thursday in the journal Nature.
“A few years of additional data are unlikely to overturn the vast body of evidence that supports anthropogenic climate change,” reads the study, adding the recent El Nino and new data have them “more confident than ever that human influence is dominant” in global warming.
IACS’s study looked at different explanations for the “hiatus” in global warming, which the study defined as the 10 or 15 years after 1998, ultimately to put to rest arguments by skeptics the lack of warming during this time cut into theories of catastrophic warming.
Analyses show that global temperatures continue their rapid cooling trend, as Schneefan here writes. What follows are excerpts of his recent comprehensive analysis.
The cooling comes naturally in the wake of the moderate La Nina conditions that have ruled over the past months.
In April surface temperatures 2 meters above the ground plummeted as the following NCEP chart shows:
Global satellite temperature anomaly from the mean measured by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) rebounded a bit after a large March drop.
Source: UAH Global Temperature +0.27 deg. C.
Foremost the atmosphere above the oceans cooled the most during March, 2017. This is clearly depicted by the UAH: an anomaly of +0.29°K to +0.09°K compared to the WMO 1981-2010 mean.
Plot UAH satellite temperatures von UAH in the atmosphere 1500 m altitude (TLT) over the oceans. Note the rose colored curve shows the ARGO ocean buoys’ mean of the sea temperature to a depth of 2.5 m, with 37-month smoothing. Source: www.climate4you.com/, sea surface temperature estimates: UAH.
Global RSS satellite data show a rapid cooling since early 2016:
Moreover despite the powerful warming El Niño event of 2015/16, the unfalsified satellite data in 2016 show that no new significant global heat record was seen when compared to the El Niño year of 1998. We are talking about hundredths of a degree, completely within the boundaries of uncertainty.
No significant warming in 20 years
The powerful linear global cooling continued in April 2017 and will continue for the time being, Schneefan writes.
What does that mean for the global warming? Schneefan adds:
The IPCC global warming claimed by the climate models has been missing for almost 20 years. And that despite the constantly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations!”
And just days ago, Kenneth Richards here showed that there hasn’t been any warming over the entire southern hemisphere at all. The warming of the past decades is not even global.
What is now becoming glaringly obvious is that the IPCC has wildly overestimated its projected global warming for the future. When the IPCC models from the various IPCC reports are compared to the observations, the result gets vividly illustrated by the following chart showing the satellite observed temperatures from January 2001 to June 2016:
The Global Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed warming on