Via: http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/new-paper-claims-after-6000-year-pause.html
New paper claims after 6,000 year ‘pause’, sea levels began rising 150 years ago
Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
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Contributed by Kurt Lambeck, September 12, 2014 (sent for review July 1, 2014; reviewed by Edouard Bard, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Peter U. Clark)
- Abstract
Significance
Several areas of earth science require knowledge of the fluctuations in sea level and ice volume through glacial cycles. These include understanding past ice sheets and providing boundary conditions for paleoclimate models, calibrating marine-sediment isotopic records, and providing thebackground signal for evaluating anthropogenic contributions to sea level. From ∼1,000 observations of sea level, allowing for isostatic and tectonic contributions, we have quantified therise and fall in global ocean and ice volumes for the past 35,000 years. Of particular note is that during the ∼6,000 y up to the start of the recent rise ∼100−150 y ago, there is no evidence forglobal oscillations in sea level on time scales exceeding ∼200 y duration or 15−20 cm amplitude.
Abstract
The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet’s dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for thepast 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in < 2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 106 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka−1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5–14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y−1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100–150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15–20 cm in time intervals ≥ 200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.
The abstract notes that on longer timescales, SLR up to at least 40mm / year has been observed – so in this context “a few” mm per year does not seem particularly alarming, and is well within the range of natural variation. The fluctuation claim – the claim that sea level change in the last 150 years is faster than any change over the last 6000 years – is very much dependent on accurate dating of each of the proxy series. As we saw with the Hockey Stick controversies, any uncertainty about dating proxies tends to impose a strong hidden averaging effect on the data series, smoothing away peaks and troughs.
In any case, in many locations the current rate of change in sea level is swamped by local geological changes – one of the reasons changes in sea level are so difficult to calculate, is the land in many locations rises or falls faster than the alleged change in sea level.
Anthony adds:
But, other science suggests even higher sea levels during interglacials.
A paper published April 17th 2014 in Nature reconstructs sea levels over the past 5.3 million years and shows that sea levels were higher than the present during almost every interglacial period over the past 5.3 million years. Sea levels at present during the current interglacial are indicated as the added red horizontal line at zero meters on Fig. 2 below, and excursions above this line indicate sea levels during past interglacials as much as 50+ meters [164+ feet] higher than present sea levels. Thus, there is no evidence that sea level rise during the present interglacial is unprecedented, unnatural, unusual or any different from that which occurred in prior interglacials, or any evidence of influence by man on sea levels.
Related Links:
New study finds sea levels rising only 7 in. per century – with no acceleration
5 Responses
As long as there is money in global warming scam, lies will continue.
No truer statement regarding AGW or Climate Change can be
told. For those uncertain souls, who don’t know what to believe, follow
the money. Proponents of AGW are direct and indirect beneficiaries
of money flow from the Private Sector as redirected by the Government. Jobs, good salaries, great healthcare and
retirement benefits, not to mention world travel, nice hotels, per Diem meals
and cocktails are all at risk should the word reach the voting masses that Man
Made Global Warming is a hoax. Be aware that the U.S. and other World
Governments have prepared a cottage industry scheme trading on “Carbon
Credits.” Under such a system the
Government will dictate the amount of energy every man, woman, child and
company will be allowed to use. Al Gore
is a major investor in the company that will operate as a clearing house for Carbon
Credit trading. The level of corruption to the Climate Scam is limitless. What
worse is, the primary media outlets are running cover for the scam. It will introduce an avalanche of new
regulations that will drive the price of gas and electricity to budget busting
levels for the average American household.
Here is a better smell test. Ask yourselves what the character-defamed
“Deniers”, those of us reviled by the primary media outlets, stand to
gain by proving that the Climate Changes and that Man has nothing to do with
it. The answer: nothing. We gain nothing by exposing the truth but we
hold onto something.
We fight against a co-opted press and Government-compensated
scientific minority that holds itself up as a “Consensus.” We fight in order to
hold onto our hard earned personal income and prevent the Government from
stripping away a significant percentage of our personal liberties through
bureaucratic fiat and EPA regulations that can do nothing to alter the
natural occurrence of a solar driven changing climate. Always keep foremost in your uncertain mind
that science is not about a majority rule masking itself as an unproven “Consensus”
it is founded on empirical data that arrives at the truth. The truth that forces more powerful than man are
changing the climate and have been since before we climbed out of the primordial
swamp.
My argument against these ‘sea level rise’ idiots is, USE YOUR EFFING EYES. How many cities do you SEE underwater?
I just got back from the beach. Guess what? No sea level rise? No underwater cities. No homes flooded. On any beach. It didn’t happen anywhere after we were told 20 years ago that it would. Anywhere. And no, it’s not going to happen tomorrow. Or next year. Or a hundred years from now.
But don’t believe me – BELIEVE YOUR EFFING EYES, MORON!
Sea level changes are completely worthless without including some pertinent data. Sea Level without an average temperature of the water is meaningless. Yes water expands and contracts as temperature changes. Also, things like Hawaiian lava going into the ocean, growing the islands displaces water, causing a rise in sea levels. The more ships (supertankers, etc) displace water to float also having some, probably minor, affect on rising sea levels. This data is just unreferenced data just like global temperature measurement without referencing the sun’s thermal cycles.
It is just a way to get money for research to study something without looking at the entire picture. Let’s use fundamentals of physics and all three steps of the “scientific method” instead of skipping the test to prove or disprove the theory and data.
So it is known that the oceans are rising? The only argument is the rate and or the increase in rate. Is that correct?