New paper explains how Polar Vortex is controlled by natural variability, not CO2 – Published in Climate Dynamics

New paper explains how Polar Vortex is controlled by natural variability, not CO2

A paper published today in Climate Dynamics finds complex, non-linear, and chaotic interactions of natural gravity waves, the El Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO], the solar cycle, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO] “combine to affect the polar vortex.” The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO] and ENSO have also been linked to solar activity and may act as potential solar amplification mechanisms which affect the dreaded polar vortex. Some warmists such as Jennifer Francis and Katherine Hayhoe instead want you to believe that recent record-cold winters due to dips of the polar vortex are your fault, due to your evil CO2 emissions and the CO2 universal control knob of climate. This false assumption has been thoroughly shot down in the peer-reviewed literature by fellow warmists, even including Kevin Trenberth et al. Climate models robustly predict the opposite of fewer jet stream and polar vortex dips due to global warming. This new paper provides a start to explain how natural forcings and feedbacks [some of which are linked to solar activity] combine chaotically and unexpectedly with “the opposite sign to the forcing” to govern the polar vortex. The paper also joins others finding links between solar activity and the polar vortex. Excerpts: “The demonstration that the steady state stratospheric response to a forcing may have the opposite sign to the forcing (Sect. 3.1) has important implications for studies of the mechanisms by which external forcings influence the polar vortex—in principle it could be the case that the direct effect of a forcing has the opposite sign to the long-term mean response. As far as we are aware, this possibility has not been considered in any previous studies of the effect on the [polar] vortex of forcings such as the QBO, ENSO and the solar cycle. Feedbacks may greatly modify the response from what is expected based on simple arguments. It also highlights the difficulties of using diagnostics such as composite differences to understand forcing mechanisms, since these may be dominated by the effects of feedback processes (Watson and Gray 2014). [i.e. chaos] The implication that the extratropical stratospheric response to an external forcing is affected by the climatology may be relevant for understanding non-linearity in the way different forcings combine to affect the polar vortex, such as the suggested non-linear combined influence of the QBO and ENSO (Garfinkel and Hartmann 2007; …

Scientist Dr. Daniel Botkin Dissents: ‘Climate Is Changing, & Some Parks Are Endangered, But Humans Aren’t The Cause’ – Rebuts Union of Concerned Scientist claims

Botkin: I’ve done research since 1968 on the possibility of human-caused global warming and its possible ecological effects, and have published widely on this topic, discussing possible effects on biodiversity and on specific endangered species as well as on forests, cities, and historical evidence of Arctic sea ice change. I’ve also been involved in the development of some aspects of some climate models, and having developed a computer model of forests that is one of the principal methods used to forecast global warming effects on vegetation, I sought out the UCS report with great interest.

Sea Level Rise:

The sea level has been rising since the end of the last Ice Age, starting about 14,000 years ago as the continental and mountain glaciers have melted and sea water has expanded with the overall warming. The average rate has been about a foot or two a century (about 23-46 cm per century). Data suggest that the rate was much greater until about 8,000 years ago.

But the graphs below of severe storm frequency, show variation over time but no overall increase. Therefore, during the recent past the claim by the UCS report is contradicted. And since the climate models don’t even come close to forecasting temperature change, we cannot trust them to forecast changes in storm frequency.

Number of Severe Storms affecting the United States since 1970

(Courtesy of Roger Pielke Jr., Professor in the Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, from his House of Representatives Testimony 11 December 2013)

Alternate Text

Frequency of Extremely Hot Days

This is controversial, because it is difficult to get information that summarizes these trends for the entire United States, and there are a variety of opinions and discussions about these data, so I put this into the article with some caution to the reader. But several graphs indicate that there has not been an increase in the average number of very hot days. For example, this graph shows days with temperatures above 95° F. This graph is based on the summary from all United States Historical Climatology Network weather stations that have been in operation since 1930.

Alternate Text

Wildfire Frequency in the U.S. Has Not Increased

The UCS report claims that two historic sites within the National Park System are being, and will be, damaged by increases in wildfire frequency. But once again, a graph from the U.S. government agencies involved, of number of wildfires, shows …

The Unending Pause: IPCC Scientist Prof. Mojib Latif Now Sees Global Warming Pause Extending To 30 Years!

Via The No Tricks Zone: The Unending Pause: IPCC Scientist Prof. Mojib Latif Now Sees Global Warming Pause Extending To 30 Years!

Leading IPCC scientist Prof Mojib Latif extends the climate warming pause to 2025. Will it ever end?

From Sebastian Lüning’s and Fritz Vahrenholt’s “Die kalte Sonne” site here (translated by P Gosselin):

Not a week goes by without Mojib Latif appearing in the media. On September 29, 2014 the climate preacher appeared in α-Forum at Bavarian Radio. The pdf of the show is here. Interestingly in the interview Latif extends the warming pause to 2020 and even 2025. That’s another 11 years, which will easily take him well into retirement. Latif is a clever one. What follows is an excerpt from the interview:

BR: Curiously it is indeed despite the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and also in the seas – we’ll talk more about this in more detail later – the global temperature has not risen lately. How does one explain this?

Latif: Well, this is really nothing unusual. That does not surprise climate scientists like me at all, as for us this is completely normal. When one takes a look at the development since 1900, that is the last 110 years, then we see that it has not always gone up. Rather it has progressed in waves. This is why it is necessary to look at long time periods. If we look at the entire time period, then it is impossible to miss seeing the rise. In 2008 in the journal “Nature” I myself predicted the pause: Back then it created a huge echo in the global media. I’m wondering why all of this seems to have been forgotten in the meantime.

BR: The reaction was also that some said that the thing with climate change indeed could not be so bad if the annual mean temperature also dropped again..

Latif: The reaction went in every direction. The reaction was, as you just formulated: ‘Everything can’t be so bad!’ But there was also great amazement that the temperature rise is not continuing even though greenhouse gases keep rising. In this study I expressly said that it does not mean that it’s all over, but that the temperature increase will rise even faster – starting in 2020, 2025.”


Latif claims that the pause “does not

UN IPCC admits new climate report all about politics! IPCC: ‘The timing is no coincidence – this is being done to be ready for Lima’ UN summit

Related Links: 

Flashback: Pre-Determined ‘Science’: IPCC at ‘beck and call’ of Govts – UN Officials Predicted Alarming Report Years Ago

MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen on EU’s climate deal: EU ‘harnessing the hysteria over speculative global warming in the service of economic suicide’

Special To Climate Depot

Richard Lindzen – Professor Emeritus, MIT, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Cato Institute

October 25, 2014

“This year is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I: a war where Europe demonstrated its capacity to harness hysteria in the service of suicide.  It is only fitting that the EU is celebrating this anniversary by harnessing the hysteria over speculative global warming (a phenomenon that has actually been hiding for 18 years), in the service of economic suicide by calling for a roll back of the industrial era despite the clear evidence that such action will serve to increase unemployment, ruin competitiveness and increase poverty.

Europeans commonly argue that the EU has preserved peace on the continent (ignoring the fact that they have depended on the US for defense during the Cold War).  However, even if this were correct, it is clear that the EU has done nothing to curb Europeans’ suicidal instincts.  Indeed, it appears to be abetting them.  Fortunately, this time Europe has included escape clauses whereby any nation is free to ignore its siren call.  However, the instinct remains their ideal.”


Related Links: 

What About Those New EU CO2 Reduction Goals? Per The Numbers, Global Temps Not Impacted

EU agrees on ludicrous 40% 2030 emissions reduction target – ‘EU twists arms to produce this agreement on a distant fantasy’

MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen Rips UN IPCC Report: ‘The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence’ — ‘It is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep the international climate agenda going’ – Former UN IPCC Lead Author