Analysis: It’s not just droughts, but nearly all extreme weather is declining or at or near record lows
Climate Depot Special Report
The federal government has just released yet another key piece of scientific data that counters the man-made global warming narrative. The federal U.S. Drought Monitor report shows that droughts in the U.S. are at record lows in 2017. See: Feds: U.S. drought reaches record low in 2017 as rain reigns – Sees lowest levels of drought ever monitored
Former Vice President Al Gore has made extreme weather warnings a staple of his climate change activist. See: Al Gore on the Weather: ‘Every night on the news now, practically, is like a nature hike through the book of Revelations’
Below is a complete rundown of the very latest on extreme weather conditions: Update data from the 2016 Climate Depot report: Skeptics Deliver Consensus Busting ‘State of the Climate Report’ to UN Summit
Extreme Weather: Scientist to Congress in 2017: ‘No evidence’ that hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes are increasing – Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. of University of Colorado
Hurricanes: 1) Inconvenient NOAA report: ‘It is premature to conclude (AGW has) already had a detectable impact on’ hurricanes & 2) NOAA: U.S. Completes Record 11 Straight Years Without Major (Cat 3+) Hurricane Strike & 3) 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers reveal the lack of connection between hurricanes & ‘global warming’
Floods: ‘Floods are not increasing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘global warming’ link to floods & extreme weather – How does media ‘get away with this?’ – Pielke Jr. on how extreme weather is NOT getting worse: ‘Flood
Media false claim: ‘The weather has been weird’ – ‘There Was Nothing Normal About America’s Freakish Winter Weather’
Bloomberg News is promoting anecdotal claptrap. Excerpt:
By Brian K. Sullivan – Bloomberg News
It’s not your imagination. The weather has been weird.
So weird, in fact, it’s had an almost biblical feel: a February tornado in Massachusetts; record wildfires across the Great Plains and beyond; more snow than ever in the Sierra Nevada; and temperatures whiplashing from balmy to frigid, killing crops and coaxing flowers out of their winter slumber.
While some of the swings may result from chance, scientists agree climate change is adding to weather mayhem and that the world will have to brace for worse. President Donald Trump is also seeking to roll back measures to fight global warming, saying the regulations kill jobs.
“The bottom line: It’s not just in our minds that the weather is changing,” said David Titley, a meteorology professor at Pennsylvania State University. “It is changing, and changing rapidly in ways we understand and ways we are just beginning to examine.”
Start with the temperature. The winter of 2016-17 marked the second mildest on record, according to Jake Crouch, a climate scientist with the National Centers for Environmental Information. February, which has been warming faster than any other month through the decades, also was the second warmest in the 138-year global record. There were some bizarre temperature readings along the way. Like a high of 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 Celsius) in Chicago on Feb. 18. Or 72 degrees in Boston less than a week later.
The month was so mild that natural gas inventories rose earlier than in any year going back to 1994, when records began, and plants threw off winter’s yoke and began to grow.
Climate Depot Rebuttal:
Bloomberg media is claiming: “It’s not your imagination. The weather has been weird.”
Actually, it is your imagination, the weather is normal. A few basic rebuttals below.
The worst tornado outbreak in recent history occurred on April 3-4, 1974 at the peak of the 1970’s ice age scare.
Temperatures on April 3, were very hot in the southeast with Texas over 100 degrees and much of the south over 90 degrees. Over the next 48 hours a strong cold front pushed across the region and spawned the tornadoes when very cold, dry air collided with the warm humid air in the southeast.
Scientists at the time blamed the tornadoes on global cooling, which they said was going to kill us all.
Tornadoes are now blamed on global warming, which scientists say will kill us all. Biggest scam in science history.
Testifying before Congress, environmental studies expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. says the UN IPCC’s own data shows there’s “no evidence to suggest” that hurricanes, floods, droughts, or tornadoes are increasing.
DR. ROGER PIELKE JR: “In the United States the number of hurricanes and the intensity of hurricanes is down by 20 percent since 1900. I don’t put a lot of stock in that because you can start at different dates and get different trends but the point is that there is no evidence to suggest that hurricanes, either in the U.S. or globally, are increasing and the same goes for floods, drought, and tornado. And, don’t believe me. You can look at the appendix that I provided with data from the IPCC. So why people would hang their hat on long term trends in extreme weather is a puzzle.”
Hearing – Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method
US House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
March 29, 2017
“There is little scientific basis in support of claims that extreme weather events – specifically, hurricanes, floods, drought, tornadoes – and their economic damage have increased in recent decades due to the emission of greenhouse gases. In fact, since 2013 the world and the United States have had a remarkable stretch of good fortune with respect to extreme weather, as compared to the past.
The lack of evidence to support claims of increasing frequency or intensity of hurricanes, floods, drought or tornadoes on climate timescales is also supported by the most recent assessments of the IPCC and the broader peer reviewed literature on which the IPCC is based.
I have included an update of relevant data and summary conclusions of the IPCC related to trends in extreme weather as an Appendix B to this testimony.…
After record low Tornado year, NOAA accused of inflating number of tornadoes – ‘Graph is grossly dishonest’
Climate Depot Note: Despite NOAA Tornado data revealing 2016 as ‘one of the quietest years since records began in 1954’ and below average for 5th year in a row, the federal agency is now hyping statistics which allegedly show an increasing number of tornadoes.
Extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. had noted that 2016 NOAA data revealed “good news” for tornadoes. “Looks like 2016 to end up as year with the fewest tornadoes since 1954,” Pielke wrote on December 30, 2016. (NOAA’s tornado records records begin in 1954)
Data: NOAA) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html
But now, NOAA appears to be spinning the numbers.
NOAA’s Tornado Fraud
By Paul Homewood
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes has been steadily growing since the 1950s, despite a drop in numbers in the last five years.
They show the above chart prominently in their Tornadoes – Annual 2016 Report.
However, they know full well that it is meaningless to compare current data with the past, as they explain themselves in the section Historical Records and Trends, which is hidden away on their own website:
One of the main difficulties with tornado records is that a tornado, or evidence of a tornado must have been observed. Unlike rainfall or temperature, which may be measured by a fixed instrument, tornadoes are short-lived and very unpredictable. If a tornado occurs in a place with few or no people, it is not likely to be documented. Many significant tornadoes may not make it into the historical record since Tornado Alley was very sparsely populated during the 20th century.
Much early work on tornado climatology in the United States was done by John Park Finley in his book Tornadoes, published in 1887. While some of Finley’s safety guidelines have since been refuted as dangerous practices, the book remains a seminal work in tornado research. The University of Oklahoma created a PDF copy of the book and made it accessible at John Finley’s Tornadoes (link is external).
Today, nearly all of the United States is reasonably well populated, or at least covered by NOAA’s Doppler weather radars. Even if a tornado is not actually observed, modern damage assessments by National Weather Service personnel can discern if a tornado caused the damage, and if so, how strong the tornado may have been. This disparity between tornado records of
Damage from weather-related disasters is in sharp decline, according to data compiled by University of Colorado professor Roger Pielke, Jr.
The chart indicates that the cost of weather-related disasters as a proportion of the global economy is declining. Data for the chart comes from the the reinsurance company Munich Re, the United Nations and Pielke’s own research.
Damage from weather events in 2015 was much less costly than expected, according to a study by an insurance industry group.
Severe winter weather has caused most insurance industry losses in recent years. Global warming and El Niño — a weather event that warms up ocean temperatures in South America, causing the United states to get unusually warm for a year — abated these insurance costs, according to Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.
Historically, hurricanes are the insurance industry’s biggest weather-related expense, but no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. during 2015. Additionally, no major hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. in the last decade, setting a new record. Scientists, however, expect global warming will lead to fewer, but slightly stronger, hurricanes.
Deaths from natural disasters and weather also dropped significantly, according to the study and other sources. Natural disasters claimed 280 lives in the U.S. in 2015 and 270 lives in 2014, which is dramatically below the 30-year annual average of 580 deaths.…
Tornadoes killed only 17 Americans this year, the fewest in 30 years and the second fewest since accurate records began in 1950. In 1986, 15 died, which is the least on record, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
(Unofficial records from before 1950 show only one other year with so few deaths: 1910, with 12.)
By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc. – vencoreweather.com
Whether you’re talking about major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes or tornadoes, there is good news this year for the US in that – similar to most recent years – these extreme weather-related events are down across the nation compared-to-normal. In fact, in the case of tornadoes, we are on pace for one of the quietest years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season.
In our springtime “Tropical Outlook”, Vencore Weather indicated it would likely be an above-normal tropical season in the Atlantic Basin which includes the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. As it stands now, the Atlantic Basin saw 15 named storms during 2016, including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole) in the first above-normal season since 2012. A major factor in that above-normal outlook was the anticipated demise of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean which peaked late in 2015. El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) actually has an inhibiting effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin as it tends to increase wind shear in that region. Five named storms made landfall in the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms struck; however, none of these were of major hurricane status. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, and Hurricane Hermine made landfall in Florida. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South Carolina. The strongest and longest-lived storm of the season was Matthew, which reached maximum sustained surface winds of 160 miles per hour and lasted as a major hurricane for eight days from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. In fact, Matthew was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007.
Much of this year’s tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin stayed out over the Atlantic Ocean sparing the US with any landfalling major hurricanes. In fact, this major hurricane drought in the US continues an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era which began in the middle 1800’s. The last major hurricane
NOAA Tornado data: 2016 ‘one of the quietest years since records began in 1954’ – Below average for 5th year in a row
Another Quiet Year For Tornadoes
As the year winds down, it looks like being yet another very quiet one for tornadoes in the US.
Based on provisional data to Nov 11th, only 2013 has had less tornadoes since 2005.
After “inflation adjusting”, which takes account of the fact that many more tornadoes get to be reported nowadays because of changing technology, 2016 also looks like being one of the quietest since records began in 1954.
It normally takes about three months for local storm reports to be confirmed as tornadoes, and classifications made. Currently, the SPC have confirmed data up to July, so there may some small changes to the above figures.
Flashback: NOAA: Number of major tornadoes in 2015 was ‘one of the lowest on record’ – Tornadoes below average for 4th year in a row – ‘The year finished with 481 tornadoes of EF-1 strength or greater, the fourth year in a row that has been below average. Perhaps more significantly, the number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes was one of the lowest on record. You have to go back to 1987 to find fewer. There were no EF-5s at all, and only three EF-4s.’