Two new papers suggest solar activity is a ‘climate pacemaker’
Two new papers suggest solar activity is a ‘climate pacemaker’
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/09/two-new-papers-suggest-solar-activity-is-a-climate-pacemaker
Here are some highlights of these two new papers published in Physics Letters A by David H. Douglass & Robert S.Knox: Central Pacific region temperature dataset SST3.4 from 1990 to 2014 is studied. SST3.4 contains a sustained signal at 1.0 cycle/yr implying solar forcing. SST3.4 also contains a signal (<1 cycle/yr) showing […] -- gReader Pro …
New paper suggests cosmic rays ‘may contribute to global temperature (& rainfall) in a significant way’ – Published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
…New paper finds strong evidence the Sun has controlled climate over the past 11,000 years, not CO2 – Published in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
New paper finds strong evidence the Sun has controlled climate over the past 11,000 years, not CO2
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/new-paper-finds-strong-evidence-sun-has.html
A paper published today in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds a “strong and stable correlation” between the millennial variations in sunspots and the temperature in Antarctica over the past 11,000 years. In stark contrast, the authors find no strong or stable correlation between temperature and CO2 over that same period. The authors correlated reconstructed CO2 levels, sunspots, and temperatures from ice-core data from Vostok Antarctica and find “We find that the variations of SSN [sunspot number] and T [temperature] have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable.” Thus, the well known ~1000 year climate cycle responsible for the Holocene Climate Optimum 6000 to 4000 years ago, the Egyptian warm period ~4000 years ago, the Minoan warm period ~3000 years ago, the Roman warm period ~2000 years ago, the Medieval warm period ~1000 years ago, and the current warm period at present all roughly fall in this same 1000 year sequence of increased solar activity associated with warm periods. a) sunspots, b) temperature, c) CO2, d-i show the amplitudes of the strongest cycle lengths (period in years) shown in the data for sunspots, temperature, and CO2 Wavelet analysis in graph a shows the most prominent solar periods in red and graph b for temperature. The most stable period for both is at ~1024 years, shown by the horizontal region in red/yellow/light blue. The authors find a lag of 30-40 years between changes in solar activity driving temperature, likely due to the huge thermal capacity and inertia of the oceans. Lead time shown in bottom graph of 40 years shows the temperature response following an increase or decrease of solar activity lags by about 40 years. Top graph shows “the anti-phase relation between [solar activity and temperature] keeps them stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of …
UK researchers show Little Ice Age was global, with implications for current Global Warming
http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=147372&CultureCode=en
However, in light of our substantiation of the effects of ‘grand solar minima’ upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the current pausing of ‘Global Warming’, which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown in the recent sunspot cycle.”…
Russian solar physicist Abdusamatov: Humanity should prepare for another ‘little ice age’
Spooky Pause…Solar Activity Now Has Leading German (Warmist) Science Journalist Asking About ‘Threat Of A Little Ice Age’
Spooky Pause…Solar Activity Now Has Leading German (Warmist) Science Journalist Asking About “Threat Of A Little Ice Age”
Science journalist Michael Odenwald at the German news weekly FOCUS used to be quite the warmist, and maybe he still is. But his latest article here tells us that he may be opening up to other climate change explanations: natural factors such as solar activity. Solar activity has quieted over the last years. Photo image: NASA Odenwald’s article focusses on the sun’s recent solar activity, noting that the current cycle has only been about as half as active as normal and that the “sun in the second half of the 20th century was unusually active over several cycles.” He then notes how the earth’s climate has suspiciously stopped warming since the sun went quiet. “Our planet could cool down” Before citing the works of geophysicist Ilya Usoskin of the Finnish University Oulu, Odenwald writes: The current low activity of the cosmic oven has possible dramatic consequences for our planet: Our planet could cool down. Perhaps the quiet sun is hidden behind another phenomenon over which scientists have long been wondering about: At around the year 2000 global warming came to a halt.” Odenwald also informs readers that the high level of solar activity from 1950 bis 2009 indeed had been an outlier and that it is clear that “the global temperature, which has increased for more than 100 years, rose most strongly from 1975 to 2000. According to the IPCC the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012 in the northern hemisphere was the warmest in 1400 years. Roughly calculated it coincides with the most recent Grand Maximum.” Warnings of a little ice age Odenwald also writes that some climatologists believe “the real driver of climate change is our sun. Some are even warning of a new little ice age.”
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Sunspot trends suggest global cooling ahead
Sunspot trends suggest global cooling ahead
http://www.cfact.org/2014/08/25/sunspot-trends-suggest-global-cooling-ahead/
Leading European scientists are now predicting a long-term cooling trend will follow the past 17 years of relatively stable worldwide temperatures. Dr. Fritz Varentholt expects the world to get cooler in the future for three reasons: (1) we are or soon will be beginning on the downward flank of the Sun’s Gleissberg and Suess cycles; (2) solar activity during the next cycle may extend our current very weak one; and (3) ocean cycles will be in cooling phases over the next decades as well.…
Is the SUN driving climate change? Solar activity – ‘and not just humans’ – could be increasing global warming, study claims
Sunspots 2014: Big Surprises – ‘The current ‘pause’ in global warming may last for many more years to come, perhaps accompanied by some cooling’
Sunspots 2014: Two Big Surprises
http://www.thegwpf.org/sunspots-2014-two-big-surprises/
The newly proposed revisions to the sunspot record going back to 1749 will have some effect on global warming predictions. The current “pause” in global warming may last for many more years to come, perhaps accompanied by some cooling.
Rare spotless day observed on July 18, 2014. Credit/spaceweather.com
A rare spotless day on the sun on July 17-18, 2014 triggered public speculation that an already stunted Cycle 24 was nearly over. Such is not the case. Defying the odds for so late in a sunspot cycle, another solar sunspot maximum was set last month. Another one is coming this month.
In other major news, a long needed revision to the 400-year sunspot record was proposed. It’ll be the first change made to the sunspot record since it was first established by Rudolf Wolf back in 1849. The changes will affect long-term climate and other dependent scientific studies.
One effect of the proposal will be to reduce modern sunspot totals. That will wipe out the so-called “Modern Maximum” and make the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, the weakest in 200 years.
Cycle 24 solar sunspot progression
New solar maximum set in July. Credit/SILSO data, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
After four straight months of steep declines in monthly sunspot counts, July reversed the trend and increased slightly.
The Royal Observatory of Belgium released July’s average monthly sunspot count on August 1, 2014. Despite the mid-month spotless day, the sunspot number increased and it grew solar maximum again for the sixth straight month.
Cycle 24 still remains the weakest solar cycle in 100 years. It’s nowhere near NASA’s forecast smoothed peak. Data indicating weak sunspot activity over the next couple cycles remain strong.
Cycle 24’s new smoothed solar maximum peak inched up from 76.0 spots/day to 77.3 spots/day. With the increase in sunspot activity in July there will probably be two or three more months setting new sunspot maximums before the sun starts fading inexorably towards minimum.
When that change finally arrives, long-term indicators suggest the next sunspot cycle will be much weaker than this one. That could portend a general cooling trend for earth, if history serves as a guide to future behavior.
Extended periods of inactivity – like the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minimums – were all accompanied by cooler earth temperatures. Conditions today mimic Cycles 3, 4 and 5 which marked the beginning …
Helsinki Times: ‘Hundred-year period of increased solar activity coming to end’
The space climate is undergoing an extremely interesting phase – a 100-year period of heightened solar activity is coming to an end.
The sun and weather are the favourite topics of discussion every summer. Kalevi Mursula, professor of space physics at the University of Oulu is interested in both but his interest goes beyond the atmosphere. Mursula studies space climate, including radiation and particles in our solar system.
At the moment, the space climate is undergoing an extremely interesting phase.
The engine of the space climate is the sun, which exerts is influence on its environment by emitting light and releasing solar wind, a stream of charged particles. Now a 100-year period of heightened solar activity is coming to an end.
Keeping tabs on solar activity is important.
Increased solar activity refers to strong solar winds and electromagnetic eruptions called solar storms. When coming into contact with the Earth’s atmosphere, these eruptions may disrupt the functioning of electric devices and communication networks.
Last week, Helsingin Sanomat reported physicist Dr. Pete Riley’s calculations indicating that the likelihood of a disruptive solar storm over the next decade is 12 per cent.
“All our data on space particles are from the period of heightened solar activity. It’ll be interesting to see how the decrease in the activity affects the space climate.”
The task is made easier by the large quantity of data available to scientists as solar radiation is being monitored on dozens of wavelengths across the electromagnetic spectrum.
Researchers also gather additional information by observing the particle concentration in the near-Earth space.
Observing the past
But the Academy of Finland’s Centre of Excellence, the Research on Solar Long-term Variability and Effects (ReSoLVE) team, led by Mursula, is not satisfied with the current state of knowledge.
The scientists at the centre want to find out what has occurred in the sun’s activity over the past 150 years.
“We have both direct and indirect observations on solar activity available to us. For example, the number of sunspots have been observed for a long time.”
Information dating even further back can be gathered from drillings on ice caps, which contain isotopes that make it possible to draw conclusions on earlier changes in solar activity. These isotopes indicate that the sun was exceptionally active during the 20th century but periods of even greater activity took place thousands of years ago.
The reason behind the …