No, Seth (Borenstein), Weather Disasters Aren’t Getting Worse.

No, Seth, Weather Disasters Aren’t Getting Worse.

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/12/15/no-seth-weather-disasters-arent-getting-worse

By Paul Homewood http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hotter-weirder-how-climate-change-has-changed-earth/ Among the various fact free claims made in this Borenstein article, which I debunked a couple of weeks ago, was this concerning weather disasters. Since 1992, there have been more than 6,600 major climate, weather and water disasters worldwide, causing more than $1.6 trillion in damage and killing more than 600,000 people, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Belgium, which tracks the world’s catastrophes. While climate-related, not all can be blamed on man-made warming or climate change. Still, extreme weather has noticeably increased over the years, says Debby Sapir, who runs the center and its database. From 1983 to 1992 the world averaged 147 climate, water and weather disasters each year. Over the past 10 years, that number has jumped to an average 306 a year. Sapir and others say it would be wrong to pin all, or even most, of these increases on climate change alone. Population and poverty are major factors, too. But they note a trend of growing extremes and more disasters, and that fits with what scientists have long said about global warming. It’s this increase that’s “far scarier” than the simple rise in temperatures, University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles says. So let’s take a closer look at the detail. 1) From 1983 to 1992 the world averaged 147 climate, water and weather disasters each year. Over the past 10 years, that number has jumped to an average 306 a year. According to the Centre’s website: Since 1988 the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has been maintaining an Emergency Events Database EM-DAT. EM-DAT was created with the initial support of the WHO and the Belgian Government. So they have only been keeping full data records since 1988, making the 1983-92 comparison fraudulently misleading. While they have retroactively compiled records going back to 1900, these are only “mass disasters”, as they themselves describe them. While they are now keeping records of even minor events, the retroactive database prior to 1988 will only include major events. A glance at their list of disasters for the most recent week updated, Nov 17th, shows just how minor many events are. I hardly think that an animal accident or bus falling into a river, which occurred in 1901, would be included in their database now. (Horse drawn …

AP’s Seth Borenstein: ‘Some nonscientists claim no warming in 18 years, Fed scientist: ‘no one’s told the globe that’ 2014 likely hottest year’

If 2014 breaks the record for hottest year, that also should sound familiar: 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 all broke NOAA records for the hottest years since records started being kept in 1880.

“This is one of many indicators that climate change has not stopped and that it continues to be one of the most important issues facing humanity,” said University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles.

Some non-scientists who are skeptical of man-made climate change have been claiming that the world has not warmed in 18 years, but “no one’s told the globe that,” Blunden said. She said NOAA records show no pause in warming.

If Earth sets a record for heat in 2014 it probably won’t last, said Jeff Masters, meteorology director for the private firm Weather Underground. If there is an El Nino, Masters said, “next year could well bring Earth’s hottest year on record, accompanied by unprecedented regional heat waves and droughts.”

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