WASHINGTON (AP) — Climate change doubters may have lost one of their key talking points: a particular satellite temperature dataset that had seemed to show no warming for the past 18 years.
The Remote Sensing System temperature data, promoted by many who reject mainstream climate science and especially most recently by Sen. Ted Cruz, now shows a slight warming of about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit since 1998. Ground temperature measurements, which many scientists call more accurate, all show warming in the past 18 years.
“There are people that like to claim there was no warming; they really can’t claim that anymore,” said Carl Mears, the scientist who runs the Remote Sensing System temperature data tracking.
The change resulted from an adjustment Mears made to fix a nagging discrepancy in the data from 15 satellites.
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The satellites are in a polar orbit, so they are supposed to go over the same place at about the same time as they circle from north to south pole. Some of the satellites drift a bit, which changes their afternoon and evening measurements ever so slightly. Some satellites had drift that made temperatures warmer, others cooler. Three satellites had thrusters and they stayed in the proper orbit so they provided guidance for adjustments.
Mears said he was “motivated by fixing these differences between the satellites. If the differences hadn’t been there, I wouldn’t have done the upgrade.”
NASA chief climate scientist Gavin Schmidt and Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M, said experts and studies had shown these problems that Mears adjusted and they both said those adjustments make sense and are well supported in a study in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
The study refutes the idea of a pause in global warming, “but frankly common sense and looking at how Earth was responding over the past 18 years kind of makes this finding a ‘duh’ moment,” wrote University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.
Chip Knappenberger of the Cato Institute, who doesn’t doubt that human-caused climate change is happening but does not agree with mainstream scientists who say the problem is enormous, said this shows “how messy the procedures are in putting the satellite data together.”
The other major satellite temperature data set, run by University of Alabama Hunstville professor John Christy, shows slight warming after …
Climate scientist decides to stop flying to cut his carbon emissions — Catches glimpse of ‘post-oil future’
I’d assumed that electricity and driving were my largest sources of emissions. Instead, it turned out that the 50,000 miles I’d flown that year (two international and half a dozen domestic flights, typical for postdocs in the sciences who are expected to attend conferences and meetings) utterly dominated my emissions.…
by Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist, Weatherwise, Inc.
This paper is a critique Francis and Vavrus (2012), hereinafter FV (2012), by atmospheric scientists Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University and Steve Vavrus of the University of Wisconsin. Their paper can be downloaded here:
and an updated version here:
FV (2012) claims a measured decrease in the zonal or west to east wind component due to “arctic amplification” (AA) would increase jet stream meandering, increase the amplitude or “waviness” of the flow, and increase persistent long wave blocking patterns around the northern hemisphere. This, in turn, would increase severe weather, droughts, floods and temperature extremes.
To quote the authors directly:
“Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.”
To quote the authors again, the effects described above are the result of arctic amplification, a term defined by the authors as:
“Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere”
This definition seems to fit the claims made by NASA GISS and NOAA that temperature measurements of the arctic are warming at a much greater rate than anywhere else in the northern hemisphere.
To examine these claims by the authors, I will use an application of dynamic meteorology from atmospheric science and introduce the physics of Rossby waves, invoked by the authors as applicable to validating their claims as well as a few of the governing laws of motion that describe the behavior of these waves and how they would interact with a warming arctic.
The physics of wave motion can become a very math intensive discussion. For the sake of article simplification I will provide the steps of deriving these governing equations which used to be used in synoptic meteorology as a tool by forecast meteorologists in the appendix page of this article
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What’s not to like? Chart (below) courtesy of the comrades at ThinkProgress.com.
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After El Nino, Will The Global Warming Pause Continue?
Is the global warming pause over for good — or will it continue once the current El Nino dies down? That is the key question raised by Dr David Whitehouse, the GWPF’s science editor, in a new video. The current El Nino is one of the strongest on record. It has elevated global temperatures to a record level. Many headlines claimed that 2015 was the year the “hiatus” was busted. But is the pause in global warming really over? El Ninos are frequently followed by cooler than average periods called La Ninas, so we can probably expect 2016 to be warm with the following two years somewhat cooler. What does this mean for the global warming “hiatus?” It means we have to wait for the current exceptional El Nino to end, and the subsequent La Nina, and a few years into ‘normal’ conditions. Will global temperatures then start to rise again or will they continue to slow down?
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‘Pause’ adjusted away?! ‘New dataset shows substantially increased global-scale warming relative to the previous version’
By Paul Homewood http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/to:2016/plot/rss/from:1998/to:2016/trend As we know, RSS have been a real thorn in the side of the climate establishment in recent years. Their satellite measured temperature trends have failed to back up claims of rising global temperatures and record years. This has also been a huge embarrassment to Carl Mears, who is responsible for the dataset. Well, if you don’t like the data, adjust it! No doubt under great pressure from above, RSS have now brought out a new version, starting with the Mid Troposphere temperatures, TMT, which in the words of their paper says: The new dataset shows substantially increased global-scale warming relative to the previous version of the dataset, particularly after 1998. Let me stress again, this only applies at this stage to the mid troposphere, rather than the lower troposphere which we usually pay attention to. Nevertheless, Mears has made it clear that the latter will be similarly adjusted in due course. As usual with these things, the past has been cooled and the present warmed. Although Mears states that this (diurnal adjustments) is the most important change, and leads to substantially more warming during the 1999-2005 period when the NOAA-15 satellite was drifting rapidly, it is apparent that substantial adjustments have been made since 2012 as well. This is often a tell tale sign that adjustments keep accumulating in one direction, rather than making one step change, something we have regularly seen with GISS. The most recent figure for February 2016 actually increases the old version by 0.178C. The effect of the change since 1998 in particular is startling. An essentially flat trend has been replaced by 0.74C/C. All datasets are continually refined, but until now changes to RSS have been much, much smaller, just a few hundredth degrees. RSS V3.0 ran up to 2008, and was replaced by V3.2 until 2011. The differences between the two were tiny – note the graph below is drawn to the same scale as the graph above: Same with Version 3.3 that has lasted since 2011: Have RSS really gone on for so many years, and through various updates, and not realised there was something so drastically wrong with their output? Really? Or have they bowed to the pressure and simply produced the results their masters demanded? WUWT’s excellent post on this business included a very telling comment from Roy Spencer, who has already shot …