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New paper shows IPCC underestimates global cooling from man-made aerosols/clouds by factor of 27 times – Published in Science
New paper shows IPCC underestimates global cooling from man-made aerosols/clouds by factor of 27 times
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-shows-ipcc-underestimates.html
According to a new paper published in Science, the global cooling effect of clouds nucleated by man-made aerosols since the beginning of the industrial revolution is approximately 15 watts per square meter, which is about 27 times more cooling effect than the mean estimate published in the 2014 IPCC AR5 Report:
Radiative forcing estimates from the 2014 IPCC AR5 Report show “cloud adjustments due to aerosols” since 1750 are a mean value of 0.55 watts per meter squared [+/-0.8] with level of confidence “low.”
The IPCC-admitted “low confidence” and very poor representation of clouds/aerosols in climate models effectively renders IPCC climate model projections meaningless. The model projections have also been falsified at confidence levels of 95-98%.
Aerosols that nucleate cloud formation can be from natural or man-made sources. For example, a recent paper published in Nature finds organic aerosols from pine trees may have a significant effect on cloud nucleation and cause global cooling. “Global brightening” from decreased aerosols/clouds over the past 30 years due to regulations on particulate emissions could also account for all or most of the observed warming over that period, instead of CO2.
A video in the E&E newswire article below demonstrates a dramatic cloud nucleation effect of the addition of small amounts of aerosols:
In the absence of aerosols, there can be no cloud nucleation. Scientists on an icebreaker in the Arctic demonstrated this in a video of a cup of hot tea that does not fume despite the below-zero temperatures. Then, someone flicks on a lighter and water vapor from the tea grabs aerosol particles emitted by the lighter (due to inefficient combustion) and a tiny storm appears, above the teacup.
Researchers penetrate one of the darkest mysteries of climate change — cloudsGayathri Vaidyanathan, E&E reporter ClimateWire: Friday, June 6, 2014Deadening calm fills the Horse Latitudes, where there’s ocean, sky and little else. A satellite peers down, capturing wisps of cloud, counting particles suspended in the air, measuring rainfall and monitoring weather.There is little wind. These latitudes, between 30 and 35 degrees away from the equator, are so calm that Spanish sailors in the 17th century could not move their heavily laden ships, or so the legend goes. So, the sailors dumped their cargo — horses — into the subtropical ocean and heaved on. But they left the …
New paper finds sunshine ‘highly correlated’ to temperature anomalies over past 50 years – Published in the International Journal of Climatology
New paper finds sunshine “highly correlated” to temperature anomalies over past 50 years
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-sunshine-highly.html
A paper published today in the International Journal of Climatology finds sunshine at the Earth’s surface was “highly correlated” to temperature anomalies over the past 50 years in the Carpathian Region of Europe.
According to the authors,
“we highlight that in the Carpathian Region positive and negative sunshine duration anomalies are highly correlated to the corresponding temperature anomalies during the global dimming (1960s and 1970s) and brightening (1990s and 2000s) periods.”
The paper joins many others documenting the “global dimming” of the 1960’s and 1970’s was associated with global cooling and the ice age scare of the 1970’s, followed by “global brightening” of the 1980’s-2000’s associated with global warming.The paper also finds a decreasing trend in relative humidity over the past 50 years in spring, summer, and winter, which is contrary to climate model assumptions of constant relative humidity/increasing specific humidity in a warming climate, and supportive of the Miskolczi theory of a saturated greenhouse effect. Cloud cover was also found to have a decreasing trend, which increases solar insolation and warming.Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variablesJonathan Spinoni et al
The Carpathians are the longest mountain range in Europe and a geographic barrier between Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans. To investigate the climate of the area, the CARPATCLIM project members collected, quality-checked, homogenized, harmonized, and interpolated daily data for 16 meteorological variables and many derived indicators related to the period 1961–2010. The principal outcome of the project is the Climate Atlas of the Carpathian Region, hosted on a dedicated website (www.carpatclim-eu.org) and made of high-resolution daily grids (0.1° × 0.1°) of all variables and indicators at different time steps. In this article, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of 10 variables: minimum, mean, and maximum temperature, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloud cover, relative sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface air pressure, and wind speed at 2 m. For each variable, we present the gridded climatologies for the period 1961–2010 and discuss the linear trends both on an annual and seasonal basis. Temperature was found to increase in every season, in particular in the last three decades, confirming the trends occurring in Europe; wind speed decreased in every season; cloud cover and relative humidity decreased in spring, summer, and winter, and increased in autumn, while relative …
New paper finds solar activity explains abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMOC]
New paper finds solar activity explains abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMOC]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-solar-activity-explains.html
A paper under review for Climate of the Past finds low solar activity explains an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMOC] during the period 1915-1935. According to the authors, the modeled mechanism is
“The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905–1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50–70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice–albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC.”
The AMOC and NAO ocean oscillations in turn have profound effects on other ocean and atmospheric oscillations and the global climate. The paper joins many other peer-reviewed publications linking solar activity to lagged effects on ocean and atmospheric oscillations and may represent yet another solar amplification mechanism.
Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 2519-2546, 2014
www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/2519/2014/
doi:10.5194/cpd-10-2519-2014
An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915–1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM
P. Lin1, Y. Song1,2, Y. Yu1, and H. Liu1
1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China2College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract. In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model – Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient …