‘Gambling’ Climate Scientists Could Be Left Red-Faced As They Bet On Warming Soon
‘Gambling’ Climate Scientists Could Be Left Red-Faced As They Bet On Warming Soon
http://www.thegwpf.org/gambling-climate-scientists-left-red-faced-bet-warming/
A Leading climate expert believes the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a “big gamble” as temperatures have not increased since 1997.
Dr Benny Peiser, of Lord Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Foundation, argued today’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is based on flawed models which do not give an accurate prediction of a future change in temperature.
The IPCC’s report shows experts are 95 per cent certain humans are causing global warming, and that is leading to a range of impacts from melting glaciers to more frequent extreme weather events.
Numerous groups, including Oxfam, Greenpeace and the UK Government, have seized on the report’s conclusions as evidence human behaviour is changing the Earth’s climate.
But Dr Peiser does not doubt the climate has changed, but the report has failed to explain why temperatures have not risen since 1997.
He said: “The IPCC are gambling that temperatures will rise soon.
“My own reading of the report is it’s more a political message than a scientific one.
“They ignore the fact that their models have a problem, and they are unable to say when the temperature will start rising again.
“That is a gamble.
“There are scientists who say it might be 10 to 20 years before another rise.”
The IPCC’s report has been published after line-by-line scrutiny by scientists and policymakers, and found it is “extremely likely”, or 95 per cent certain, that the majority of the warming since the 1950s is down to human activity.
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Judith Curry: IPCC Will Be ‘Toast’ If It Doesn’t Warm Soon
Judith Curry: IPCC Will Be ‘Toast’ If It Doesn’t Warm Soon
http://www.thegwpf.org/judith-curry-ipcc-toast-warm/
“The IPCC has thrown down the gauntlet – if the pause continues beyond 15 years , they are toast.”
The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.
Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows – and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the Mercury has stopped rising.
Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.
“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”
But a final draft of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend.
“Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends,” the new report reads.
A section that suggests volcanoes and solar activity may have affected the warming has also been removed in the final version.
Climate skeptics have seized upon the change in world weather patterns, some citing it as evidence that global warming itself has decelerated or even stopped. Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the slowdown was a far larger issue than the report shows.
“Unless global temperature will begin to rise again in the next few years, the IPCC is very likely going to suffer an existential blow to its credibility,” he said. Judith Curry, professor and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, was even blunter.
“IPCC has thrown down the gauntlet – if the pause continues beyond 15 years (well it already has), they are toast.”
Many governments had objections over how the issue was treated in earlier drafts and some had called for it to …
TheGWPF: David Whitehouse: ‘IPCC talking like bankers, or like bankers did pre 2008.’
David Whitehouse: ‘IPCC talking like bankers, or like bankers did pre 2008.’
IPCC AR5 Press Release: Oceans Ate “More Than 90% Of The Energy Accumulated Between 1971 And 2010″!
IPCC AR5 Press Release: Oceans Ate “More Than 90% Of The Energy Accumulated Between 1971 And 2010″!
The IPCC has issued a press release on the release of the AR summary report for policymakers. You can find it here.
We are witnessing a disgraced science, one that is desperately clinging to catastrophe and relevance. The Summary Report for Policymakers (SPM) resembles an amateur magician’s show where everybody already knows all the tricks used to create the illusions. But the policymakers will act like they’ve seen the show for the first time.
The press release says “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century“. The report fails to acknowledge that global temperatures have been at a standstill for the last 15 years, claiming rather that “each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850” – a statistical sleight of hand.
In the Summary Report for Policymakers (SPM), the hockey stick chart disappears completely. There’s no mention of temperature conditions during the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Almost all the charts shown in the SPM go back only to the 20th century, and thus provide an incomplete and misleading picture of historical temperature developments. The Medieval Period was as warm, if not warmer, than today’s temperature. Obviously the concept of the temperature hockey stick is an embarrassment that the IPCC is eager to relegate to the dustbin of history.
The SPM also completely neglects solar activity and its possible connection to the current global cooling taking place. In Figure SPM.5, the chart attributes practically no climate impact from the sun, although the historical data shows there’s a powerful correlation between solar activity and global temperature.
The IPCC also fails to report that global temperatures have not risen at all since the Third Assessment Report of 2001. Moreover, the chart comparing model projections to observations, which appeared in a draft report leaked late last year, disappeared in the new Summary Report for Policymakers.
CO2 climate sensitivity figures have also been scaled back. The IPCC now projects a warming of only 1.5°C or more over the 21st century. In the 2007 report that figure was 2°C and up.
The press release, however, insists that sea level rise will accelerate, later in the future. But until then we will …
Reactions to IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers via Wattsupwiththat.com
Reactions to IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/reactions-to-ipcc-ar5-summary-for-policy-makers/
This is a bullet point collection of reactions as they come in, it will be updated throughout the day by added new items to the list. My first reaction was: That IPCC had a golden opportunity, and blew it due to being unable to adapt to reality. My second reaction was due to a tweet […]
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AR5 press cuttings
AR5 press cuttings
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/27/ar5-press-cuttings.html
Marcel Crok says that the good news in AR5 is being hidden.
Bob Tisdale says that the way the pause is being shown is comical.
Matt Ridley was on the Daily Politics, up against some of the slimiest creatures in British public life.
Judith Curry has fun explaining to a journalist how the IPCC gets to that 95% certain figure.
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TIme magazine: When it was warming, the reason was CO2 and climate was simple; now that it’s not warming, the reason isn’t known and climate is complex
TIme magazine: When it was warming, the reason was CO2 and climate was simple; now that it’s not warming, the reason isn’t known and climate is complex
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/09/time-magazine-when-it-was-warming.html
Climate Scientists Issue Their Report. Now It’s Our Turn | TIME.comClimate skeptics have seized on the fact that the rate of warming over the past decade or so has been less than climate scientists predicted given the continued increase in carbon emissions. The IPCC report address the warming “hiatus,” as it’s been called, raising a number of possible explanations—the ocean absorbing the warmth, changes in the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions that cause cooling—without pointing the finger at a single one. Which just underscores how complex the climate system remains, even as we keep experimenting on it. The scientists will keep working on those questions and others…
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IPCC: Global warming stop could last beyond our lifetimes as heat penetrates ever deeper into oceans
IPCC: Global warming stop could last beyond our lifetimes as heat penetrates ever deeper into oceans
Supposedly the ocean has consumed 90% of the warming, contributing to the global warming stop. If that keeps happening… Reuters reports: The IPCC reiterated that a warming trend is “unequivocal”, and some effects would last far beyond the lifetimes of people now alive, such as heat penetrating ever deeper into the oceans. Read more…
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