Models based on planetary and solar changes predict climate better than the Warmist CO2 models — New paper by Scafetta: ‘Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change’
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http://antigreen.blogspot.com/2013/07/models-based-on-planetary-and-solar.html
Models based on planetary and solar changes predict climate better than the Warmist CO2 modelsNew paper by Scafetta, N., “Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change”. It’s a bit reminiscent of the old epicycles but does serve to highlight the potential explanatory role of celestial factorsABSTRACTGlobal surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hindcasting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50- 60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000-2040 approximately steady projected temperature; (3) a 2000-2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3 oC and 1.6 oC , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1 oC to 4.1 oC ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling centered in 1.35 oC and varying between 0.9 oC and 2.0 oC.Energy & Environment: special volume ‘Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: a critical review’. Vol. 24 (3&4)Another crooked WarmistFraudulent graph promoted by award-winning climate hoax communicator Gavin SchmidtWriting on twitter, Schmidt links to several graphs which are basic examples of chartmanship: You can make even tiny changes in something look like a steep rise just by using tiny increments in the vertical axis of a graph. It is very deceptive but Warmists do it routinely and Schmidt is no exception.The graph below is more bizarre than that, however, To pick a small point first, the idea that 2,000 years ago was in prehistory rather ignores Greek and Roman civilization. Did I imagine my readings of …