• Date: 27/11/16
  • David Rose, Mail on Sunday

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record

The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.

The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.

Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.

Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.

The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.

‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

BBC News interview with Dr. Peter Stott (UK Met Office) on 2015 warm record: “The main reason that we have such warm temperatures is actually human-induced climate change. That’s the main factor. And then El Niño contributes a small amount on top.”

Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.

But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.

However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’

The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.

Full story & comments


86 Responses

  1. SCIENCE should be our LEAST CONTROVERSIAL body of knowledge, because SCIENCE tests each Hypothesis against reality via the SCIENTIFIC METHOD (designed, repeatable experiments).


    SCIENCE is a body of knowledge that has been established by means of, and only by means of, the SCIENTIFIC METHOD (ie, designed, repeatable experiments).

    Unfortunately, today we have many dishonest SCIENTISTS who are using a fraudulent definition of SCIENCE that replaces the Scientific Method with a CONSENSUS. Here’s their fraudulent definition of SCIENCE:

    SCIENCE is a body of knowledge that has been established by means of a CONSENSUS (ie: politics, egotism, greed, etc).

    For example, these dishonest Scientists tell us that (1) Man-Caused Global Warming and (2) the Normalcy of Homosexuality and (3) Darwinian Macro-Evolution, have been established as SCIENCE by means of a “CONSENSUS among experts.”

      1. The Scientific Method eliminates the bias caused by politics, religion, greed, racism, etc.

        You should love the Scientific Method. It often proves the “experts” wrong, as was the case in Galileo’s day.

      1. Marvelous. I have a degree in econ, and I liken economists to stock market gurus… anyone who’s taken econ 101 knows as much as the “experts.” But I never thought of your characterization, and I absolutely love it!

        1. Most involved owners of small businesses for any length of time have a damned good handle on Econ 101 as the live it every day. At least that was how I got a good grasp of it as my family has been self employed for as long as I can remember and set me on that path myself. My sister married into an entrepreneurial family as well.

  2. To warm the land you must first warm the oceans. There is 300 million cubic miles of ocean water. How would you warm that if you wanted to? Have you ever swam in a lake in late July? All that summer sun only warms the top 8 feet or so of water..

        1. The least he could have done was to buy expensive “beach front houses” a mile inland so they would only be “on the beach” after the calamitous sea level rise.


  4. The Sun is 99.86% of all mass in our Solar System. Read that again. Source=Wikipedia.
    It also accounts, in one way or another, for all of our energy.
    Obviously, unless you are a far alt-left braindead lunatic, the Sun is also responsible for our weather and climate.

  5. The scam by the alarmists continues. Not only is the developing La Nina a factor but also the approaching solar minimum that most indications will be a deep event…

  6. It used to be global warming until temps started dropping. Now it’s “climate change”. Now that’s what I call definitive proof that everyone should begin paying more taxes to the government and the U.N.!

  7. Real scientists begin with an empty slate, and forming a conclusion after research and experimentation. Climate science, on the other hand, begins with a conclusion and does research and experimentation meant to prove than conclusion. This method leads to biased research in order to establish the proof.

      1. Yes, I agree. Proof that it’s an agenda and not science (at least for me); when the first reports of a “hiatus” or a possible cooling trend years ago should have brought relief and happiness, in averting environmental tragedy, from the scientific community. Instead it was just the opposite and “hiding the decline”.

    1. Exactly claiming a hundred and fifty years of data has relevance on a planet 3 billions years old is idiotic. Even more idiotic is claiming to be able to control the environment by taxing.

  8. All the more reason to get NASA out of the climate business and back in the business of getting MEN (MEN! MEN! MEN!) back to the moon and out of women’s restrooms.

    1. lol. yep. i remember looking at the national geographic magazine article that had a map of the US mostly covered by glaciers, when the inevitable ice age was being pimped then. i think we’re supposed to be in the grips of that new ice age right now… if it weren’t for your efforts, of course ; )

      also, when aids came on the scene in the early 80’s i remember sitting in my car in the university parking lot listening to a radio story that within a decade aids would be a global epidemic, impacting both sexes and all sexual orientations. by the 90’s, it was apparent it was pretty much just a gay disease.

      in the 90’s the ozone hole was hyped to be expanding and we were at risk of losing the ozone layer completely where we’d always have to be indoors to escape the sun’s unfiltered rays.

      all. of. it. BS.

  9. One year rise in temperatures:
    “It’s Man-made Global Warming!!”
    One year fall in temperatures:
    “It’s nothing, just a one year blip—because Man-made Global Warming!!”

    Science. Now a branch of progressive sociology.

    1. There is no way to factor end all the variances involved in our climate to predict weather a month out and they are claim to predict it 100 years out. The idea of climate science is science fiction.

  10. If polar ice starts to grow again, then the whole Global Warming thing is BS.
    We may pump too much gas into the sky, but this is being addressed.
    It seems many stand to gain financially if the GW continues. Typical greed.
    The earth has gone through temperature swings long before we measured cow farts or long before the first factory.

  11. What they will tell you: Obviously it is cooling because of all the successful techniques being funded to stop global warming. Keep giving billions and billions of dollars and the cooling will continue thus bringing the earth back to normal temp. Otherwise you fry!! Your wallet please.

  12. One might argue comradegrandmuftihusseinobama’s plan to defeat global warming is working, or one could conclude the truth has surfaced after these so called “scientists” stopped cooking the numbers.

  13. In a couple of weeks it will continuously be shoved down our collective throats that 2016 was the warmest on record…………

    and Trump is going to cause all of the animals to die and the coasts to flood.

  14. Embarrassment from reports such as this may be avoided entirely, but only if you are an actual scientist desiring actual data — all data, Mr. Mann — wherever it may lead. With a bright and shiny agenda funded by partisans in bright and shiny gaberdines, however, you may find yourself not questioning consensus, but following it; you may find yourself proving pet theories rather than testing them. And then, you may find yourself looking like Don Quixote at an arson fire, holding a thermometer in one hand and book of matches in the other.

  15. I was sent an application to join the democrat party. The application began by stating I must answer YES to ALL questions. It began:
    Are you corrupt?
    Are you unethical?
    Are you immoral?
    Are you a liar?
    Are you a hypocrite?
    Do you worship at the alter of global warming?

    1. without biased government money I’m guessing you’ll see a lot more “well, the science isn’t really settled after all” in our future. And most “climate scientists” teaching music and phys ed as they should have been all along.

      1. Yes :D. Also hopefully we’ll stop saying “climate scientists” and start saying “physicists who study the climate” when referring to respectable research.

      1. Sad thing with all the Global warming political lobbyist out today I don’t think south park would do it’s Al Gore episode if it had not already done it.

  16. The Church of Global Warm… I mean Church of Climate Change does not allow dissent! All ye unbelievers shall feel Gaia’s wrath! *in the form of carbon taxes that just happen to make you poor, while making government powerful.

  17. Science becomes religious when projecting into the future. Dynamic forecasting is virtually impossible because of the unforeseen consequences that result from each forecast change. If the average temperature goes up does it trigger an increase in evaporation and stronger uplift air currents resulting in more and thicker cloud cover and cooler rain? Does more rain wash more pollutants out of the air reducing the greenhouse effect? You can go on and on and on. Then there is the possibility that a huge volcanic eruption or an astroid encounter will change the game more than anything man could ever come up with.

    Reduce the world birth rate. That is the only potential problem solver for this planet.

  18. Well if next year is remarkably cooler than we might prove them wrong quicker than I thought. It always amazes me how people think CO2 has a stronger affect on the Earth than the Sun. Like literally if you took the Sun away they would tell you it’s going to keep warming up because of the CO2.

          1. There is poor science everywhere. I am following professor Valentina Zharkova and her prediction that a maunder minimum is forthcoming with sun activity quieting down and continuing to decrease. Maybe snowboarding will become a summer sport for a few years?

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