Climate Depot’s Reality check on Sea Level claims: (From 43-page report: Skeptics Deliver Consensus Busting ‘State of the Climate Report’ to UN Summit)
Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended more than 10,000 years ago. There is currently no acceleration in sea level rise.
Former NASA Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer in 2016: “Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every ten years. If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10-14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade?
Sea Level Expert Rips Study Claiming Fastest Rise in 2800 years: Study ‘full of very bad violations of observational facts’ –Dr. Nils-Axel Morner who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University: ‘The PNAS paper is another sad contribution to the demagogic anti-science campaign for AGW. It is at odds with observational facts and ethical principles.” – “The paper is full of very bad violations of observational facts.’
Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry of Georgia Institute of Technology: ‘Sea level will continue to rise, no matter what we do about CO2 emissions.’ – ‘The IPCC figure 3.14 suggests that there is no acceleration, given the large rates of sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century. Until we have an understanding of variations in decadal and multi-decadal sea level rise, we can’t make a convincing argument as to acceleration.’
Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller: ‘For the past 130 years there has been ZERO acceleration in sea-level rise as directly measured by tide gauges in tectonically inert areas (land neither moving up nor down), even as CO2 has risen almost 40% in the same period.’
Peer-Reviewed Studies Demolish Warmists’ Sea Level Rise Scares: ‘Decelerated 44% since 2004′ – ‘Global sea levels have been naturally rising for ~20,000 years and have decelerated over the past 8,000 years, decelerated over the 20th century, decelerated 31% since 2002 and decelerated 44% since 2004 to less than 7 inches per century. There is no evidence of an acceleration of sea level rise, and therefore no evidence of any effect of mankind on sea levels.
Global sea level rise from tide gauges (1.6 mm/year) is half of that claimed from satellites (3.2 mm/year). Which is right? – ‘There is no acceleration of the increase’ – [Climate Depot Note: According to tide gauges, Sea Level is rising LESS than the thickness of one nickel (1.95 mm thick) per year or about the thickness of one penny (1.52 mm thick) a year. According to satellite info it is rising slightly more than two pennies a year (3.04 mm)]
New study finds sea levels rising only 7 in. per century – with no acceleration
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Update: Watts Up With That website debunks LA Times article:
NOAA tide gauge data updated through 2015 measurements from numerous locations around Florida clearly establishes that coastal sea level rise is not accelerating along Florida coastlines but instead remains steady and consistent with long term NOAA tide gauge measurements.
Claims in the most recent L A Times article speculate that the rate of Florida coastal sea level rise is accelerating to a “conservatively projected 3 feet” per century are likely based on (http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Reports/2012/NOAA_SLR_r3.pdf) a government report created by Obama’s National Climate Assessment initiative.
The range of coastal sea rise projections from this report vary between 8 inches to 6 feet over the next century with an average value of 3 feet.
Most significantly however the range of estimates of coastal sea level rise projected in this report are devoid of any degree of certainty as clearly noted in the report as follows:
Thus the assertion that a projection of Florida future sea level rise of 3 feet per century is clearly not “conservative” is in fact pure climate alarmist speculation.
Additionally the claims in this latest piece of climate alarmism journalism from the Times asserting that Florida is seeing increased rainfall levels are also completely unsupported by Florida rainfall climate data (http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/products-services/data/statewide-averages/precipitation).
This data going back as far as 1895 clearly shows that the highest levels of annual rainfall in Florida occurred in the years 1947 and 1959 at 72.57 and 71.26 inches of rainfall respectively.
Annual Florida rainfall for the period from year 2000 through the latest recorded month in 2016 show no increasing trend in annual rainfall whatsoever nor any annual rainfall amount even close to the peak years of 1947 and 1959.
This latest L A Times article is just another example the papers scientifically unsupported climate alarmist propaganda agenda which is completely devoid of any credible science and demonstrates why the Times had to institute it’s dictatorial censorship policy in its discussion of climate issues which are purely driven by political ideology not science.
6 Responses
So we are to believe the very people who have been brainwashed to the point of hysterics? How have they behaved since the election? Rational?
Talk about being stuck in their own echo chamber…..
I am in total agreement with the above analysis, and yet Miami has a real problem. After learning that the Miami water authorities flood the canals during the peak lunar cycle to prevent sea water encroachment, I decided to get an expert talk to us about the Miami situation. Here are my notes:
On Friday, August 22, 2014. Wayne M. Pathman presented on the effects of climate change on the Miami landscape and economy. He is a renowned expert on climate change and sea level rise and their economic effects.
Here are my notes of what he said, followed by my take on what he said:
1) The sea is coming in underground every which-way because we’re sitting on porous limestone everywhere.
2) We seem to have plenty of fresh water in S Florida, but some aquifers in the East have become (or are about to become) saline and [forever] unusable.
3) The Everglades and Lake Okeechobee are tremendous sources of fresh potable water. We have abused them for 100 years, but are starting to reverse some of that.
[Note: it would have been nice to know what abuse we’ve actually done, what specifically we’re doing to fix it, and what concerned citizens can do]
4) Even the Everglades is at risk from encroaching sea-water at some point. Once the Everglades collapses, it’s “abandon ship” for South Florida.
5) The Dutch have had problems with sea-level forever and are very advanced in dealing with it, but their approaches won’t work here (limestone).
6) Drainage is a problem both because the pipes are [likely] clogged up and many of the exits to the ocean are under water, at least at high tide.
7) Solution for the drainage: 1) fix/replace/expand diameter of pipes; 2) lift sewage/drain-water to high venues (tanks?) with pumps and/or install back-flow preventers. This sounds like a solution that presents no political opposition and would actually work.
8) There was talk of abandoning sections of the geography like Sweetwater and [one other place]. This is never going to happen — no money, politics.
9) Before we need to consider building an ark, banks will stop making [long-term] mortgages & insurance companies will raise their rates (or leave Fl).
[I expect the Federal gov’t will be dragged into this and thus Wayne’s scenario, while plausible may end up having a political solution – gov’t guarantees]
10) New buildings will have to be bermed or otherwise raised. Is this in the works yet? Moreover foundations for these big buildings will have to be regulated to prevent them from damaging the limestone beneath them and exacerbating the sea-water intrusions.
[An obvious move, but one with no political legs, would be a moratorium on [large] building projects]
11) There’s a schizoid component to all this with “climate change” which for Wayne is really “massive sea-level rise.” Why schizoid? Because all the problems above become unsolvable if you are expecting 2′ or more of sea-level rise in the foreseeable future. And if the situation is “hopeless” no one is going to even consider wasting money in a feckless effort. So there are 2 categories of ‘fixers’ — those concerned with a continuation of the current level of sea rise (8-9″ per century) for which there are solutions…. and the alarmists, who if anyone took serious would merely sell out and move.
Here is my take on the above:
Drainage has always been a problem here as far back as I can remember, and infrastructure has long been poorly maintained and investment starved. Part of the problem is this. But not all.
We have 2 separate problems amounting to crisis NOW and likely to get worse; 1) Inadequate drainage; and 2) sea-water infusion underground into our freshwater underground aquifers.
DRAINAGE
Drainage breaks down into 2 issues: a) normal drainage during heavy rains; and b) storm surge say from a category 3 hurricane
As for normal drainage we have a gravity driven sewer system now and a very flat topography to support it. In places the drainage exits on seawalls are underwater and thus dysfunctional at high tide (and possibly during lunar maximums). This it would seem is easily addressable by:
—- fixing, cleaning, replacing with larger pipes the existing drainage network
—- adding elevated containment vessels, pumps to move storm drainage to them, and back-flow preventers to the current infrastructure
—- increasing the elevation of the exits to the ocean, which may involve higher sea-walls.
Storm surge is another matter. Obviously the above should help, but it can only mitigate, not prevent. Building code changes to require new building to be above harm’s way via berming or pilings will help over a very long time, but ….well, that’s no consolation for existing, legacy structures (and not all that’s necessary for life here is housing). On the other other hand we’ve had such improved building codes since Andrew hit back in the 1990’s, maybe a lot more of the housing stock is currently upgraded already that I think.
Higher sea walls may be of some benefit, but against a hurricane probably more wishful thinking. Wayne Pathman didn’t really speak to this issue except to say that engineers in the Netherlands ‘let the waters in and redirect them.’ This to me suggests build a series of canals (more like ditches), but even that would seem unlikely to work because they would fill too quickly and drain too slowly. Wayne did speak of possibly abandoning certain areas, like Sweetwater, which is just not going to be possible politically, until/unless the big storm comes and devastates them. Then there will be a big debate about rebuilding. But it’s just fantasy talk about condemning perfectly good housing now….. both politically and financially. In the aftermath of the next big hurricane strike (may it never happen) the issue may become politically possible, especially if banks and insurance companies weigh in that they won’t finance or insure in certain areas if they are rebuilt.
SEA-WATER INFUSION
This seems a losing battle on the coastal front lines. This conclusion doesn’t require any belief in ‘global warming’ or 3′ sea-level rise. The crisis is a current one and unwinnable. It would seem the only thing we can do near the coast is to prevent building practices to further damage the limestone. But the plain fact is that we have plenty of fresh water elsewhere in South Florida for the future — but farther west. Longer term we need to protect the everglades and Lake Okeechobee as our long term water supply. It would have been helpful had Wayne explained what we have historically done to abuse these ecosystems, what we could do to reverse the damage and how citizens like ourselves could help.
GLOBAL WARMINING — MASSIVE SEA RISE
A word about the 2+ foot sea-level rise over the next few decades. In 3 words, “it aint happening.” But if you believe it’s happening, then the real-estate game is really a variation on Musical Chairs ….. except when the music stops there will be NO CHAIRS. Ultimately, at some point to live here you should be a renter, not an owner…. or if you own, be so wealthy that any loss of value won’t make a difference to you (but keep a boat nearby for the inevitable big storm surge).
Most know I’m a big skeptic on CAGW. Currently sea-levels are rising at 3mm per year ACCORDING TO SATELLITES, which is 3/10 of a meter per century — about 1 foot…. in 100 years from today. On the other hand, tidal gauge records show much less sea-level rising — about 7” per century with no recent acceleration. Moreover, we are told that the sun is entering a quiet phase about now, which typically cools the planet. We are also told that the ice-melt in Antarctica is largely an artifact of shifting currents bringing more warm water from the tropics and undermining the ice shelves in Western Antarctica from BENEATH. It’s not clear that this pattern is anything more than a cyclical phenomenon or even one-off. For sure interior temperatures in Antarctica are not showing a warming trend, so who knows what the future will bring?
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I live on a saltwater canal in NE FL. No problems here. Land is stable and it’ll be 100 years before water is continuously over the top of the seawall. That is, if sea level rise continues as it has for a long, long time. It could be that if cooling continues to set in, sea level will go down. Within the realm of possibilities.