A new record ‘Pause’ length: Satellite Data: No global warming for 18 years 8 months!
Special To Climate Depot
The Pause lengthens yet again
A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 8 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since January 1997. Yet for 224 months since then there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). With this month’s RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) temperature record, the Pause sets a new record at 18 years 8 months.
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 8 months since January 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings occurred during the period of the Pause.
As ever, a warning about the current el Niño. It is becoming ever more likely that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will begin to shorten the Pause somewhat, just in time for the Paris climate summit, though a subsequent La Niña would be likely to bring about a resumption and perhaps even a lengthening of the Pause.
The spike in global temperatures caused by the thermohaline circulation carrying the warmer waters from the tropical Pacific all around the world usually occurs in the northern-hemisphere winter during an el Niño year.
However, the year or two after an el Niño usually – but not always – brings an offsetting la Niña, cooling first the ocean surface and then the air temperature and restoring global temperature to normal.
Figure 1a. The sea surface temperature index for the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical eastern Pacific, showing the climb towards a peak that generally occurs in the northern-hemisphere winter. For now, the Pause continues to lengthen, but before long the warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific will be carried around the world by the thermohaline circulation, causing a temporary warming spike in global temperatures.
The hiatus period of 18 years 8 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated. And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate.
The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. 1b).…
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