UN IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue What Caused the 15 Year Pause in Warming
IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue What Caused the 15 Year Pause in Warming
From the leaked AR5 Summary:
“The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–1 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing this reduced warming trend. {Box 9.2; 10.3.1; Box 10.2}”
Translation: It was the sun. Or super secret volcanoes. Or something.
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IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue About the Arctic and the Antarctic
IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue About the Arctic and the Antarctic
From the leaked AR5 Summary:
“There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 is now better simulated than at the time of the AR4, with about one-quarter of the models showing a trend as large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations. Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small increasing trend in 30 observations. {9.4.3}“
“one-quarter of the models showing a trend as large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations”
Translation: 75% of the models were wrong about Arctic Sea Ice. But we’ll claim we got it right when we only got it right 25% of the time.
“Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent
Translation: None of the models got Antarctic Sea Ice right.
What a joke.
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UK Paper: Global warming’s credibility problem due to activist scientists, Gore, & IPCC crying wolf & vastly overstating what the science says
UK Paper: Global warming’s credibility problem due to activist scientists, Gore, & IPCC crying wolf & vastly overstating what the science says
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/uk-paper-global-warmings-credibility.html
Climate’s big PR problemMARGARET WENTE THE GLOBE AND MAIL Sep. 24 2013, 7:11 AM EDT
A funny thing happened since that blockbuster UN report in 2007 called for urgent action on global warming. The world stopped warming up.This fact is a monumental PR headache for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is set to issue the first part of its next report on Friday. It’s hard to call for urgent action when nothing much is happening.Behind the scenes, there has been a fair amount of discord at the IPCC about how (or whether) to explain the awkward hiatus in temperature increase, which has now lasted 15 years. According to a leaked draft, the report will explain that such a lull is normal. It will argue that the long-term trend remains unchanged, and that global warming will soon return with a vengeance.So, if carbon dioxide is still building up in the atmosphere, where did all the extra heat go?There are a lot of explanations. Many scientists argue that the heat is trapped in the deep ocean and will eventually be released into the atmosphere. “The heat is not missing,” Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist who is now a Green Party member of the B.C. Legislature, assured the Associated Press. “The heat is there.” [no, it’s not and never was]Other scientists cite mitigating factors, such as shifts in ocean currents, lower levels of solar activity, stratospheric water vapour, aerosols, clouds and volcanic eruptions. In other words, global warming is a lot more complicated than we’ve been led to believe – and possibly a lot less catastrophic. There is growing evidence that the climate simply isn’t as sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions as we thought it was.As for those much-hyped climate models – they’re worthless, at least in the short term. They couldn’t predict what’s just happened. A recent study by Francis Zwiers and other scientists at the University of Victoria, published in this month’s Nature Climate Change, examined more than a hundred climate-model simulations and found that almost all of them had “significantly” overestimated global warming over the past 20 years.When it comes to the intricacies of climate change, the science is notoriously unsettled. The only consensus that exists is the well-established fact that human activity is …
Political support for climate policies eroding worldwide: Czech Republic, Poland, Germany, Australia, US, Canada,…
Political support for climate policies eroding worldwide: Czech Republic, Poland, Germany, Australia, US, Canada,…
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/political-support-for-climate-policies.html
Support for EU Climate Policy Erodes Further on Czech Vote
By Sean Carney WSJ.COM 9/13/13
Support for the European Union’s climate and energy policy eroded further Friday as the Czech Republic became the latest member to denounce subsidies for clean but costly renewable energy and pledged to double down on its use of fossil fuels.
It followed Poland’s declaration that it would use its abundant domestic coal supplies for power generation rather than invest in costly renewable energy facilities. Spain abolished subsidies for photovoltaic power generation in July and the U.K.’s power markets regulator last month froze solar power subsidies for the rest of the year.
The Czech Senate voted overwhelmingly in favor of a bill to eliminate subsidies for new photovoltaic power plants while quickly winding down support for other types of renewable power production. The bill has already been approved by the lower house of parliament and now only needs President Milos Zeman’s signature to become law.
Manufacturing and industry are key economic sectors in central Europe and the Czech decision marks the region’s divergence from the European mainstream, which supports subsidizing renewable energy.
Opposition to further subsidies is a major hurdle for EU lawmakers who this month are launching talks on the bloc’s 2030 climate change agenda. It hopes to wring firm commitments to reduce carbon emissions by the end of December.
The Czech Republic has seen a surge in renewable power production over the last four years due to rich cash payouts for investors in the sector. Since then public outrage over fast-rising power prices has forced politicians to put the brakes on subsidies. The payouts have been a drag on the economy, creating uncertainty on energy markets and preventing utilities from investing.
“To maintain the country’s [international] competitiveness we had to act,” said Senate Vice-chair Alena Gajduskova after the vote.
The bill also directs state and taxpayer support to centralized power production, a step directly at odds with EU goals.
“Small-scale renewable energy generation is a cornerstone of the future energy policy,” the EU Parliament’s industrial committee said in a statement Thursday.
The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, is tight lipped on the situation.
Marlene Holzner, spokeswoman for Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger, said that “the Commission believes that reforms to support schemes for renewables are needed,” and that the …
Al Gore: ’There needs to be a political price’ for climate ‘denial’
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/323971-al-gore-there-needs-to-be-a-political-price-for-denial
Al Gore: ‘There needs to be a political price’ for climate ‘denial’
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3070283/posts
Al Gore: ‘There needs to be a political price’ for climate ‘denial’ By Ben Geman – 09/23/13 02:20 PM ET Former vice president Al Gore on Monday called for making climate change “denial” a taboo in society. “Within the market system we have to put a price on carbon, and within the political system, we have to put a price on denial,” Gore said at the Social Good Summit New York City. “It is simply not acceptable for major companies to mimic the unethical strategy of the tobacco companies in presenting blatantly false information in order to protect a business……
James Delingpole: 95 percent of intelligent people know the new IPCC report is utter drivel
IPCC, new study. Media,…
Climate Science Faces Crisis Over Global Warming Pause: ‘IPCC faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures’
Climate Science Faces Crisis Over Global Warming Pause
http://www.thegwpf.org/climate-science-faces-crisis-global-warming-pause/
Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures.
For a quarter of a century now, environmental activists have been issuing predictions in the vein of the Catholic Church, warning people of the coming greenhouse effect armageddon. Environmentalists bleakly predict global warming will usher in plagues of biblical dimensions — perpetual droughts, deluge-like floods and hurricanes of unprecedented force.
The number of people who believe in such a coming apocalypse, however, has considerably decreased. A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion — Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent.
One cause of this shift, presumably, is the fact that global warming seems to be taking a break. The average global temperature hasn’t risen in 15 years, a deviation from climatologists’ computer-simulated predictions.
This is a difficult state of affairs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will release its next assessment report on global warming on Friday, Sept. 27.
None of the authors involved in the report are allowed to comment publicly on the report’s contents before its official release. Only after days of closed-door negotiations — which begin in Stockholm this Monday, Sept. 23 — will the international forecasting body release its findings.
This much, though, is certain — the new predictions will be essentially the same as the old ones, albeit a little more precise. The only adjustment the IPCC is expected to make is an increase in the predicted rise of sea levels. The new report is expected to forecast that coastal waters may rise by between 29 and 82 centimeters (11 and 32 inches) by the end of the century.
The crucial question, however, is: How will the IPCC address the pause in global warming? And how reliable are the computer models on which the predictions are based, if they failed to foresee the current temperature plateau?
Full story
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Antarctic sea ice expands to all-time record — baffling scientists
…Bad Timing — Gore Effect strikes another warmist: Teen, Inspired by Gore, Will Attempt Record Trek to Antarctica to Bring Attention to Global Warming
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