‘Missing’ phytoplankton found, but Trenberth’s imaginary heat remains ‘missing’
‘Missing’ phytoplankton found, but Trenberth’s imaginary heat remains ‘missing’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/missing-phytoplankton-found-but.html
A new study finds “NASA satellites may have missed more than 50% of the phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean, making it far more difficult to estimate the carbon capture potential of this vast area of sea.” The paper adds to several other recent peer-reviewed publications demonstrating prior assumptions about the global carbon cycle may be highly erroneous, as well as the modelling derived from these assumptions.However, Trenberth’s imaginary heat from CO2 is still ‘missing’ from both the atmosphere and the deep oceans. The very sparse, deep-ocean temperature observations show only a 0.01C warming over 44 years, which is much, much less than the instrument uncertainty.
Deep ocean observations in green show only 0.01C warming over 44 years, much less than uncertainty and measurement error. The remaining lines are all from models, which, as usual, are all over the map showing equally warming or cooling. Source
In addition, if the “oceans ate the global warming,” steric sea level rise from thermal expansion should have accelerated sea level rise, but the data shows no evidence of acceleration.
Algorithm finds missing phytoplankton in Southern Ocean
by Staff WritersCanberra, Australia (SPX) Sep 24, 2013
To get the observations needed to make valid comparisons and develop the algorithm, the researchers used more than 1000 Southern Ocean phytoplankton samples collected over 10 years and compared these to satellite measurements.
NASA satellites may have missed more than 50% of the phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean, making it far more difficult to estimate the carbon capture potential of this vast area of sea.
But now, new research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Three improved satellite chlorophyll algorithms for the Southern Ocean (doi:10.1002/jgrc.20270), has led to the development of an algorithm that produces substantially more accurate estimates of Southern Ocean phytoplankton populations.
That research from the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) was led by PhD student Rob Johnson and Associate Prof Peter Strutton
“This new algorithm allows us to detect changes in plankton numbers that have previously gone unnoticed,” said Mr Johnson.
“This better understanding of the phytoplankton population will, in turn, allow us to gain a much more accurate idea of how much carbon this ocean can take up.”
The importance of phytoplankton and their role in our planetary ecosystem cannot be underestimated. They form the base of the marine food …
Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo: National Geographic’s Sea Level Folly
National Geographic’s Sea Level Folly
Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
In the September 2013 issue of National Geographic, the feature story is on rising sea levels and how they are changing our coastlines. It shows a Statue of Liberty half submerged. The magazine in at least the past decade has adopted the failing climate change advocacy position prevalent in today’s mainstream media. It has become more science fiction than science fact. It is sad because it once was a very popular very balanced and informative trustworthy magazine. A lot of the hype on sea level rises including talk by Mayor Bloomberg of the need to spend $20 billion dollars to protect the city from rising seas and storms is based on faulty data.
The entire environmental movement is based on flawed theories and models. Whenever the data disagrees with the data they assume the data is wrong and adjust it to fit their projections.
The late, great Richard Feynman, a Cornell Physicist said about the scientific method that if data or experiments don’t support your theory no matter how beautiful it is or smart you are, the theory is wrong.
For example, global temperatures stopped warming close to 17 years ago and have cooled since 2002. This is while CO2 has increased over 11%. None of the climate change models used by the UN showed this hiatus. Claims of the warmest decade and very high ranking months and years are based entirely on our government manipulating climate data. In 1999 when NASA’s James Hansen observed relative to the US annual temperatures in the 20th century, that the 1930s was clearly the warmest decade and 1934 the warmest year, 1934 was a full 1.1F warmer than the spike in the super El Nino of 1998 in the NOAA’s/NASA’s prize US data set which adjusted for urban contamination.
That was inconvenient since their global data set that was not adjusted for urbanization was showing significant warming over the same period. NOAA in 2007 removed the urban adjustment and changed other processing steps. The result was now that 1998 became 0.2F warmer than 1934, a change of 1.3F. One data set that was not altered, the state all time record highs and lows, showed a very different story more like that depicted in 1999. 39 of the 50 all time state record highs occurred before 1960. The most, 23, occurred in the 1930s. More …
The EPA’s worse-than-useless coal regulations: ‘Bureaucrats are sometimes forced to concede would have little effect even if their phony ‘crises’ were accepted as real’
The EPA’s worse-than-useless coal regulations
http://junkscience.com/2013/09/24/the-epas-worse-than-useless-coal-regulations/
Steve Hayward writes at Human Events: Madcap environmentalism is fantastically expensive – costing the private sector billions of dollars and stamping out countless jobs, to fight phantasmal “problems” like global warming, with rules that bureaucrats are sometimes forced to concede would have little effect even if their phony “crises” were accepted as real. The latest […]
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Las Vegas Guardian Features Climate Depot: Morano: ‘2013 climate events have torn the UN ‘political narrative,’ on the impact of global warming, to shreds’
…Former NASA scientist James Hansen: If all fossil fuels burned, global warming would be 25°C higher
Hansen: If all fossil fuels burned, global warming would be 25°C higher
But there’s been no warming for the last 35 ppm of added atmospheric CO2 and each molecule of CO2 has less warming potential than the previous molecule. James Hansen writes in a just published paper: The practical concern for humanity is the high climate sensitivity and the eventual climate response that may be reached if […]
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More IPCC Misdirection: Its Dodgy Sea Level-Rise Assessment — Scientist rebut UN claims: ‘Recent scientific findings argue that rate of sea level rise since 1993 is little different than the long-term (20th century) rate of sea level rise once natural variability and non-climatic influences are accounted for’
More IPCC Misdirection: Its Dodgy Sea Level-Rise Assessment
http://www.cato.org/blog/more-ipcc-misdirection-its-dodgy-sea-level-rise-assessment
Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is set to release its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the physical science of climate change at the conclusion on its editorial meeting in Stockholm scheduled from September 23-26th.
A version of its Summary for Policymakers (SPM)—perhaps the most influential portion of the report as it is the widest read—has been “leaked” to generate media interest in the upcoming release. It certainly has, but perhaps not in the manner intended. The leaked SPM has revealed a document so flawed and removed from current science that it has been described as not only being “obsolete on the day that it is released, but that it will be dead wrong as well” (okay, we wrote that).
Examples already abound as to the problems evident in the leaked SPM. Here we add another—this one having to do with the recent rate of sea level rise.
In the Summary for Policymakers section of its Fourth Assessment Report (published in 2007) the IPCC had this to say about the rate of sea level rise:
Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961-2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003: about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear.
Since then, we have highlighted numerous findings in the scientific literature that present strong evidence that the increase in the rate of sea level rise since 1993 is largely not an increase in the longer-term trend (or at least not from human-caused climate change which is the IPCC’s implication) and that the short-term rate of sea level rise has been slowing, and returning back towards the long-term average.
But the IPCC’s heart remains hardened.
The leaked version of the AR5 SPM includes this description of sea level rise:
It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm …
Washington Times Op-Ed: Sea level claims are a product of ‘scientific groupthink’ and fudge factors
Washington Times Op-Ed: Sea level claims are a product of ‘scientific groupthink’ and fudge factors
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/washington-times-op-ed-sea-level-claims.html
“Clearly, the official three millimeter sea level rise number is a product of scientific “group think.” Not only is this number far below what can be accurately measured, but all leading organizations support this nonsense number. Could it be that our leading scientists must endorse sea-level rise to support the ideology of man-made global warming?”
Sea level rise: Climate change and an ocean of natural variability Thursday, September 19, 2013 –
Climatism: A Mad, Mad, Mad World by Steve Goreham RELATED COLUMNS: A science-based rebuttal to global warming alarmismCHICAGO, September 19, 2013 — Sea level rise is the greatest disaster predicted by Climatism, the belief in catastrophic climate change. Today, leading scientific organizations support the idea that the ocean level is rising due to man-made emissions. Further, they claim to be able to measure ocean level to a high degree of accuracy. But a look at natural ocean variation shows that official sea level measurements are nonsense.The theory of man-made climate change warns that human emissions of greenhouse gases will raise global temperatures and melt Earth’s icecaps, causing rising oceans and flooding coastal cities. Former Vice President Al Gore’s best-selling book, An Inconvenient Truth, showed simulated pictures of flooding in South Florida, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and other world locations. Dr. James Hansen predicted an ocean rise of 75 feet during the next 100 years.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in 2007, “Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003: about 3.1 mm per year.” This translates to a 100-year rise of only 7 inches and 12 inches, far below the dire predictions of the climate alarmists.But three millimeters is about the thickness of two dimes. Can scientists really measure a change in sea level over the course of a year, averaged across the world, which is two dimes thick?Today, sea level is measured with satellite radar altimeters. Satellites bounce radar waves off the surface of the ocean to measure the distance. Scientific organizations, such as the Sea Level Research Group at the University of Colorado (CU), use the satellite data to estimate ocean rise. The CU team estimates current ocean rise at 3.2 millimeters per year.The organizations AVISO (Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic …
New paper finds sea levels rising at less than 4 inches per century, with no acceleration: Study ‘finds global mean sea levels rose at only 1 mm/year, equivalent to less than 4 inches per century, over the 203 year period from 1807-2010’ — ‘The authors also find no evidence of acceleration of sea level rise, which indicates that there is no evidence of a human influence upon sea levels’
New paper finds sea levels rising at less than 4 inches per century, with no acceleration
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-sea-levels-rising-at.html
A new paper finds global mean sea levels rose at only 1 mm/year, equivalent to less than 4 inches per century, over the 203 year period from 1807-2010. The finding is remarkably similar to the sea level rise of 1.1-1.3 mm/yr found by the NOAA 2005-2012 Sea Level Budget, the only sea level budget which reconciles both satellite [altimeters & GRACE] & ARGO float data. The authors also find no evidence of acceleration of sea level rise, which indicates that there is no evidence of a human influence upon sea levels. In addition, the authors find that sea level rise is a localized rather than global phenomenon, with 61% of tide gauge records demonstrating no change in sea levels, 4% showing a decrease, and a minority of 35% showing a rise. This implies relative sea level change is primarily related to subsidence or post-glacial rebound [land height changes] rather than melting ice or steric sea level changes [thermal expansion from warming].
Excerpts:
If SLR is accelerating, sea levels should be nonstationary in first differences, but stationary in second differences. In none of the tide gauges and segments do the Dickey-Fuller and KPSS statistics support the accelerationist hypothesis. [i.e. there was no acceleration]
The substantive contribution of the paper is concerned with recent SLR in different parts of the world. Consensus estimates of recent GMSL rise are about 2mm/year. Our estimate is 1 mm/year. We suggest that the difference between the two estimates is induced by the widespread use of data reconstructions which inform the consensus estimates. There are two types of reconstruction. The first refers to reconstructed data for tide gauges in PSMSL prior to their year of installation. The second refers to locations where there are no tide gauges at all. Since the tide gauges currently in PSMSL are a quasi-random sample, our estimate of current GMSL rise is unbiased. If this is true, reconstruction bias is approximately 1mm/year.
Sea level rise is regional rather than global and is concentrated in the southern Baltic, the Ring of Fire, and the Atlantic coast of the US. By contrast the north-west Pacific coast and north-east coast of India are characterized by sea level fall. In the minority of locations where sea levels are rising the mean increase is about 4 mm/year and in some …
IPCC Chairman Pachauri Now Denies Global Warming Slowdown & peer-reviewed research
IPCC Chairman Denies Global Warming Slowdown & peer-reviewed research
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/ipcc-chairman-denies-global-warming.html
Daily news roundup from the Global Warming Policy Foundation newsletter [and added commentary]:
IPCC Chairman Denies Global Warming Slowdown
Climate Science Faces Crisis Over Global Warming Pause
Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the UN’s climate panel, dismissed suggestions of a slowdown in global warming. “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” he told me. “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase). I would like to draw your attention to the World Meteorological Organization which clearly stated on the basis of observations that the first decade of this century has been the warmest in recorded history. And I think the rest will be brought out by the report itself when it’s released.” –Roger Harrabin, BBC News, 23 September 2013
[IPCC Chief Pachauri is denying the findings of recent peer-reviewed research published in Nature Climate Change finding there has been no statistically-significant warming for the past 20 years.]
Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013
BBC 10 O’Clock News, 23 September 2013
Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.” Germany’s highest-ranking climate researcher, physicist Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, in Hamburg, is fighting back against this refusal to face facts. Marotzke, who is also president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm, promises, “We will address this subject head-on.” The IPCC, he says, must engage in discussion about the standstill in temperature rise. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013″Climate policy needs the element of fear,” Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.” –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013For a quarter of a century now, environmental activists have been issuing predictions in the vein of the Catholic Church, warning people of the coming greenhouse effect …
ADMISSION!…German Delegation, Politician Concede: ‘Climate Policy Needs Element Of Fear’ In UN IPCC Report
ADMISSION!…German Delegation, Politician Concede: “Climate Policy Needs Element Of Fear” In IPCC Report
In my last post I mentioned that the English language Spiegel here has a comprehensive piece on the IPCC’s ideological struggle on whether or not to include the 15-year warming hiatus in the AR5 Summary Report.
Spiegel quotes Mike Hulme who says that the German delegation is “certainly more in the direction of ‘alarmist’” and are insisting that the warming hiatus not be mentioned. Why not? Spiegel tells us why (my emphasis):
German Green Party politician Hermann Ott, on the other hand, is satisfied with Germany’s conduct in the negotiations. Since Helmut Kohl’s government, Ott says, there has generally been consensus on the significance of climate protection, making it possible for “a great deal of continuity and a high level of expertise” to develop within Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment.
Despite resistance from many researchers, the German ministries insist that it is important not to detract from the effectiveness of climate change warnings by discussing the past 15 years’ lack of global warming. Doing so, they say, would result in a loss of the support necessary for pursuing rigorous climate policies. “Climate policy needs the element of fear,” Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.”
Someone needs to remind Hermann Ott that there hasn’t been any warming since Helmut Kohl’s government ended in 1998 – completely contradicting the models. In fact, there hasn’t been much warming since the IPCC’s second report from 1995!
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