UN IPCC lead author Steve Sherwood likes this analogy: Earth plus trace amounts of CO2 is like a person plus cancer: ‘If the prognosis is the patient is going to die, but there is some uncertainty on exactly when, you do not just throw out the initial prognosis of death’
IPCC lead author Steve Sherwood likes this analogy: Earth plus trace amounts of CO2 is like a person plus cancer
The tide is rising”…If we look back at the temperature record over the past 100 years or so we see times when the earth’s surface was warming rapidly and times when it was slower, so in that sense it is no surprise,” Professor Rintoul says….Professor Sherwood likens decadal changes in warming rates to a cancer sufferer. While they may feel a little better one week compared with the next, it does not mean they are rid of the disease….But Professor Sherwood strongly rejects suggestions that the changes are an admission of past error. He returns to his cancer patient analogy: If the prognosis is the patient is going to die, but there is some uncertainty on exactly when, you do not just throw out the initial prognosis of death.
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Andrew Montford: Climatology’s Great Dilemma — ‘The UN IPCC’ s dilemma is this. How can it expect the public to believe that recent warming is mostly manmade when the models on which it has based this claim have been shown to be fatally flawed?’
Andrew Montford: Climatology’s Great Dilemma
The IPCC’s dilemma is this. How can it expect the public to believe that recent warming is mostly manmade when the models on which it has based this claim have been shown to be fatally flawed?
Climate science is, once again, on the horns of a very uncomfortable dilemma. Whatever the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) chooses to do in the next few weeks its decision looks set to explode in its face.
Crises are something of a feature of the IPCC. Since its First Assessment appeared back in 1998, each of the panel’s periodic pronouncements on the global climate has plunged it into controversy. In the Second Assessment of 2005, the report’s headline claim – that a ‘fingerprint’ of manmade global warming had been detected – caused uproar when it was discovered that it had been inserted into the text at the last moment. Loud allegations that the report had been doctored for political ends followed. Then, in 2001, the infamous, but scientifically peripheral Hockey Stick graph, with its claim that modern temperatures are unprecedented, was hyped by the Third Assessment as though it were conclusive evidence of a human influence on the climate. The chickens came home to roost at the time of the Fourth Assessment in 2007, when thousands of emails were leaked from the University of East Anglia, revealing the extraordinary efforts to keep evidence that the Hockey Stick was flawed out of the final report.
With the Fifth Assessment now only days away, the scientists and politicians who formulate the final report have to work out how they are going to avoid yet another crisis. To do this they need to concoct a story that will explain away a very inconvenient contradiction.
The various drafts of the report have been well leaked to the media, and it looks as though the headline stories are going to be something along the lines of ‘Science is now more certain than ever that mankind is warming the planet’ and, more controversially, ‘Most of the warming in the second half of the 20th century was down to greenhouse gases’. How do scientists purport to know this? The answer is that their computer models tell them so: the models only reproduce the observed warming when they incorporate increases in greenhouse gases.
But there’s a problem. While the climate models confidently predicted …
Antarctica Sea Ice Extent All-Time Record Maximum on Sept 22 2013: 19.51394 million sq km of sea ice
Antarctica Sea Ice Extent All-Time Record Maximum on Sept 22 2013
Antarctica Sea Ice Extent set another all-time record of 19.51394 million sq km on Sept 22 2013.
The old record was 19.51234 million sq km which was set on September 14 2013 (Day 257).
The record was broken by .00264 million sqk km.
Click graph for bigger. Data is here.
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