New paper finds current climate models are ‘unable to reproduce present or future climate accurately’: Study published in Nature finds “a new player on the scene” called “internal lee waves” are “a player in ocean dynamics that may make an important contribution to deep-ocean mixing…Climate models that do not represent this mixing appropriately will be unable to reproduce present or future climate accurately’
New paper finds current climate models are ‘unable to reproduce present or future climate accurately’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-current-climate-models.html
More problems for the models: An article published today in Nature says “a new player on the scene” called “internal lee waves” are “a player in ocean dynamics that may make an important contribution to deep-ocean mixing…Climate models that do not represent this mixing appropriately will be unable to reproduce present or future climate accurately.” According to the article, current IPCC climate models do not include this deep-ocean mixing from lee waves, which “warrant serious consideration for inclusion in the next generation of climate models.”
Excerpts:
Internal lee waves are a player in ocean dynamics that may make an important contribution to deep-ocean mixing. They warrant serious consideration for inclusion in the next generation of climate models.
Turbulent mixing in the ocean interior plays a crucial part in driving downward transport of heat and dissolved greenhouse gases and upward transport of biologically essential nutrients. It also ultimately supplies the deep ocean with the energy that drives a global network of currents known as the meridional overturning circulation. Climate models that do not represent this mixing appropriately will be unable to reproduce present or future climate accurately.
Many previous studies have focused on the breaking internal waves that are driven by tides and winds as the dominant source of that turbulence. In a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, Nikurashin and Ferrari2 describe a previously under- appreciated dynamic mechanism — internal lee waves — that may significantly contribute to mixing in the deep ocean. Away from the direct influence of surface forcing, most turbulent mixing in the ocean interior is driven by breaking internal gravity waves3. These propagate along and across den- sity interfaces within the ocean, similar to the interfacial waves you might see between oil and vinegar in a glass or even between coffee and milk in a well-made cappuccino. Compared with the more familiar surface waves, internal waves are much slower, with periods of hours instead of seconds.
Their breaking is in many ways analogous to that of surface waves on the beach, albeit in a slow-motion, larger-than-life way — the wave height may reach tens or even hundreds of metres3. But unlike waves at the beach (which lose all of their energy to heat or sound with each thunderous crash), some of the energy lost by breaking internal waves increases the …
German Die Welt Journalist On AR5: “Small Sensation: IPCC Backpedals Considerably” – Mann’s Hockey Stick Trashed For Good
Die Welt Journalist On AR5: “Small Sensation: IPCC Backpedals Considerably” – Mann’s Hockey Stick Trashed For Good
Ulli Kulke, veteran journalist at Germany’s flagship daily Die Welt, writes at his Die Welt blog that “scientists from Potsdam not long ago were talking about a global temperature increase of four, five or even more degrees Celsius.” But with the recent news leaking out about the upcoming IPCC AR5, that scenario is looking more like fantasy than ever.
If the reports leaking out are accurate, then it appears that, Kulke writes, “the alarmists are backpedaling and one could roughly sum it all up as follows: Nothing is even half as bad.” Reports of exaggerated CO2 climate sensitivity are now filtering through even in Germany and it’s becoming increasingly obvious even to Europeans that the whole issue had been grossly exaggerated.
Kulke writes that he already mentioned recently that the IPCC had significantly scaled back CO2 climate sensitivity in its first draft of the upcoming report. “The way it appears now the IPCC has in the last few days once again scaled back its estimates in the updated drafts and has conceded stark errors in the past report.” Here Kulke cites the Wall Street Journal, the Daily Telegraph, the Mail on Sunday and The Australian.
Kulke continues:
Moreover, they expressly bring up the pause in global warming – and also admit that they cannot explain it and that the computer models, which the IPCC relies on, failed to predict it.”
Nobody knows what the final draft is going to look like. But the IPCC will have to ultimately decide whether to bring up these inconvenient, even embarrassing, facts. Failure to do so would cost the IPCC as a scientific body a lot of respect, of which it is already very low on. On the other hand bringing the glaring shortfalls will make the IPCC appear as prone to error and cost it credibility.
Mann’s flawed hockey stick discarded for good
Kulke also writes that the Medieval Warm Period has reappeared in the latest draft, thus disposing once and for all of Michael Mann’s infamous hockey stick chart.
Not long ago it was inconceivable, but apparently the IPCC is now admitting that during the years between 950 and 1250, i.e. the Middles Ages, most parts of the world were just as warm as they are today. That is during a time when CO2 …