Never mind that US hurricanes are at a record low, extreme heat has plummeted in the US, drought is near a record low, tornadoes are near a record low, and wildfires are down 75% since the 1930’s.
In 1937, fires burned 22 million acres, compared to to 5 million this year. But the actual decline is much more than that, because the recent numbers include Alaska and the 1930’s numbers didn’t.
The California wildfires still raging out of control are the work of a serial arsonist and not the result of global warming. Yesterday, officials arrested the dangerous firebug accused of setting 17 of California’s wildfires as firefighters battle the still-raging firestorms across the state. Previously, global warming alarmists said the wildfires were a result of the long-running California drought that has left a lot of dry tinder on the ground. Numerous studies have shown the California drought is entirely natural and part of a regular cyclic pattern for the state.
Serial arsonist arrested
The man accused of setting the California wildfires is Damian Anthony Pashilk, who has been arraigned on 17 counts of serial arson. Unfortunately, the fires are still raging and the worst is yet to come. Fireseason for much of California is September through October when ground kindling is at its driest.
The wildfire that began as a small brush fire has also forced California into a state of emergency. As of today, the wildfire inSan Bernardino, dubbed the Blue Cut fire, has burned about 18,000 acres and drove 82,000 people from their homes. It was so hot it melted bikes and destroyed thousands of homes.
With the ongoing drought, summer heat, and strong winds, there was even a firenado spotted. Another fire, called the Clayton Fire, has wiped out roughly 4,000 acres and 175 homes since Saturday. While many residents are happy that Pashilkis behind bars, he has left a trail of misery in his wake. He has started at least 17 fires across the state, with many of them still burning.
Part of a larger picture?
Prior to his capture, some people were speculating that the wildfires were part of a larger global warming picture. Some said that the fire season had started earlier this year and blamed it on the drought, high winds, and higher temperatures.
But it turns out an arsonist had his finger on the scales. Without Pashilk setting the fires, this likely
Summary: In this critical review of the scientific literature about fire, I describe how the false notion of a link between forest fires and anthropogenic CO2 was ignited in 2006 by a fatally flawed article promoted in the science-trend-setting magazine Science, and spread like wildfire through the scientific literature and beyond, driven in part by high winds of climate modelling extravagance, while fortunately leaving large unburnt patches. There is no evidentiary basis for such a link. On the contrary, established knowledge about forest fires leads to the conclusion that dedication to teasing out such a link is preposterous: In the present circumstances starting in approximately 1900, the dominant effect is direct human impacts on land use, which causes global fire occurrences to be dramatically less than from the known long-term natural cycles (modern fire deficit). No special circumstances or regions have been correctly identified where forest fire behaviour can be attributed to CO2. Canada’s recent Fort McMurray fire is no exception. The claimed 7 g mean birth weight loss arising from mothers’ general exposure to CO2-driven southern California wildfires, like all such claims, is a product of statistical and conceptual overenthusiasm. I use concepts from the animal-behaviour scientific literature to explain how some scientists and their followers can get so carried away.…
Credits: NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey
Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski here decided to investigate this a bit more closely, and found that the data supporting such claims are “paltry” and that the claim itself is mostly “a myth”. He points out that the same is true with all the other recently alleged climate change-caused disasters, such as 5 Pacific islands sinking, the Syria conflict, hurricanes, etc.
In fact the practice of blaming climate change for natural disasters has been so widespread that Bojanowski, a geologist, now terms it “a ritual”.
Main cause: El Niño induced weather
The Spiegel journalist writes that the reason behind the fires was mainly an unusual, high latitude low which elevated temperatures 17°C above the mean and brought with it high winds which acted to fan the flames. The dry conditions leading up to a forest fire outbreak, Bojanowski reports, were due to the El Niño which disrupted global weather patterns.
Bojanowski next provides a chart depicting Canada forest fire activity over the past 25 years. The trend: no real increase in forest fire activity. If anything the overall trend for the number of fires is slightly downward. Though the area of the fires have jumped, Bojanowski suspects this may have something to do with more industry taking place in forests. Here he also cites results from Russian scientists.
Bojanowki makes other points:
- The IPCC sees no increased drought in Canada.
- Models said wet regions were in fact supposed to get wetter.
On the claims climate change was to blame for the devastating forest fires in Canada, he concludes that “there isn’t any evidence for this claim“.
– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/18/a-myth-spiegel-journalist-douses-alarmist-claim-alberta-fires-caused-by-climate-change/#sthash.I09tlkip.dpuf…
Extreme weather failing to follow ‘global warming’ predictions: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, Wildfires, all see no trend or declining trends
Climate Depot Round Up: ”Despite the fact that climate activists have changed renamed ‘global warming’ into ‘climate change’ and then to climate ‘disruption’ and ‘global weirding’, the weather and climate is failing to cooperate. Below is a round up of the latest on extreme weather data and studies.”
Fine print in Obama’s climate report breaks from warmist narrative — Admits no trends in droughts, storms, tornadoes and hail! – After cranking up the fear of increasing droughts, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, the report offers some little disclaimers admitting to unsettled science: But the fine print that few will ever read acknowledges the real uncertainties of something as complex as the planet’s atmosphere. – “There has been no universal trend in the overall extent of drought across the continental U.S. since 1900,” the authors observe. We also learn that “trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively.”
New paper unable to link 2013 extreme weather of droughts, heavy rain & storms to AGW
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. ‘the bottom line on this new NOAA special report: If you are attributing any extreme other than heat waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change, you are on weak (or worse) scientific ground.”
3,264 Days Without a Major (Cat 3 +) Hurricane Strike – ‘Nearly 9 years…the last being Wilma in October, 2005′ – Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: As of today (October 1) it’s been nearly 9 years since a major hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) has struck the U.S., the last being Wilma in October, 2005. Remember the 2005 hurricane season? Landfalling hurricanes right and left. Katrina! This was going to be the new normal in a Global Warming world. Then the bottom dropped out of tropical activity.
Colorado WILDFIRES NOT MORE SEVERE since 1800s, says ‘massive’ University of Colorado study reveals – Funded by NSF
The perception that Colorado’s Front Range wildfires are becoming increasingly severe does not hold much water scientifically, according to a massive new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder and Humboldt State University in Arcata, Calif.
The study authors, who looked at 1.3 million acres of ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest from Teller County west of Colorado Springs through Larimer County west and north of Fort Collins, reconstructed the timing and severity of past fires using fire-scarred trees and tree-ring data going back to the 1600s. Only 16 percent of the study area showed a shift from historically low-severity fires to severe, potential crown fires that can jump from treetop to treetop.
The idea that modern fires are larger and more severe as a result of fire suppression that allowed forest fuels to build up in the past century is still prevalent among some, said CU-Boulder geography Professor Thomas Veblen, a study co-author. “The key point here is that modern fires in these Front Range forests are not radically different from the fire severity of the region prior to any effects of fire suppression,” he said.
A paper on the subject was published Sept. 24 in the journal PLOS ONE. The study was led by Associate Professor Rosemary Sherriff of Humboldt State University and involved Research Scientist Tania Schoennagel of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, CU-Boulder doctoral student Meredith Gartner and Associate Professor Rutherford Platt of Gettysburg College in Gettysburg, Pa.
The study was funded by the National Science Foundation.…
US Forest Fires Near Historic Lows: ‘Burn acreage is much less than half of normal’ according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center
US Forest Fires Near Historic Lows
Outside of the West Coast, there is very little forest fire activity in the US this year. Burn acreage is much less than half of normal. National Interagency Fire Center…