Tag: sea level

Veteran Meteorologist: ‘Old And New Data Show Sea Level Rise Deceleration’…Alarmist Projections ‘Contradicted’

Puls writes: “Even over the two most recent decades no acceleration can be detected, rather there is a weakening.”

Meteorolgist Puls then summarizes the results of the GRACE data for the last 9 nine years: “Only 1,7 mm per year.”

The EIKE article then looks at the “grotesque” discrepancy between satellite data and tide gauge data, and that to this day there is still no reasonable explanation for it. One thing is sure: the collection of tide gauges doesn’t lie.

Puls concludes

The constant stream of alarm reports of supposedly dramatic sea level rise at present and in the future cannot be confirmed by observations. Rather, the data as a whole contradict it. Worldwide neither tide gauges nor satellite data indicate an acceleration in sea level rise. Rather they show a weakening. There is a glaring contradiction between earlier and current statements from a number of institutes, climate models and the IPCC. Moreover there are strong indications that the satellite data showing higher values were “over-corrected”.

Analysis: The Ocean Thermometer reveals Global Warming Lies

Analysis: History falsifies climate alarmist sea level claims

Climate Reality Refutes IPCC’s Sea Level Predictions, Studies Show

New paper finds Greenland ice sheet is ‘insensitive’ to surface melt; lowers sea level projections – Published in PNAS finds the ‘Greenland ice sheet motion is insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing’

Report: UN climate conference COP19 tells blatant lies to the public about sea level rise & snow cover

Sea levels have been rising naturally for the past 20,000 years since the peak of the last ice age, and at much, much faster rates in the past (up to 40 times faster than today). Sea level rise greatly decelerated about 8,000 years ago to rates similar to today:

Sea levels are currently rising 4 to 8 inches per century, and there is no acceleration, which means there is no evidence of a human influence on sea levels.

New paper finds sea level rise has decelerated 44% since 2004 to only 7 inches per century – Published in Global and Planetary Change

New paper finds sea level rise has decelerated 44% since 2004 to only 7 inches per century

A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds global sea level rise has decelerated by 44% since 2004 to a rate equivalent to only 7 inches per century. According to the authors, global mean sea level rise from 1993-2003 was at the rate of 3.2 mm/yr, but sea level rise “started decelerating since 2004 to a rate of 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.”

The authors also find “This deceleration is mainly due to the slowdown of ocean thermal expansion in the Pacific during last decade,” which is in direct opposition to claims that the oceans “ate the global warming.” This finding debunks alarmist claims that ocean heat uptake has increased over the past decade, demonstrating instead that ocean heat uptake has decreased during the global warming pause since 2004, and has gone negative since 2007, as shown by fig. 4b indicating steric sea level rise from thermal expansion has been negative since 2007.

The paper adds to several other peer-reviewed publications finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st century, and thus no evidence of any human influence on sea level rise:

JM Gregory et al Journal of Climate 2012
M Beenstock et al 2013
NOAA 2005-2012 Sea Level Budget
Dean & Houston 2011 & 2013
Scafetta 2013
Holgate 2007
Boretti 2012
Morner 2004
Jevrejeva et al., 2006 & 2008
Wöppelmann et al., 2009
Roemmich et al 2013

IPCC 2007:
“no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone.”

IPCC 2013:
“It is likely that GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010”

 

Figures from the paper & abstract:

Fig. 2. The instantaneous rate of interannual variability of (a) the GMSL, (b) the global mean steric sea level, and (c) the global mean ocean mass, i.e. the first-order time derivative of third IMFs shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 3. a. Regression of total sea level (observed by altimeters) during 1993-2012 on the third IMF of the GMSL given in Fig. 1a. b. Same as Fig. 3a but for the steric sea level.

Fig. 4. a. The intrinsic trend of the GMSL, i.e. the first-order time-derivative of the trend function of

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Answers AP’s Seth Borenstein’s questions on Typhoon Hiayan: ‘The scientific evidence does not presently support claims of attribution of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on tropical cyclone behavior with respect to century-long trends ‘much less the behavior of individual storms’

Special to Climate Depot

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Also a Research Fellow, Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University. 

Dr. Pielke responded to questions about Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda from Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press on November 11, 2013. 

Pielke Jr.: Seth Borenstein of AP sent me an email asking some questions, my quotes didn’t make it into his story, but here they are in 2 comments:

Here are ten questions:

1. What human factors do you see in play here in Typhoon Haiyan?

Roger Pielke Jr.: If you are referring to the physical qualities of Haiyan, then I will defer to the recent IPCC AR5: “In summary, this assessment does not revise the SREX conclusion of low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.”

That means that the scientific evidence does not presently support claims of attribution of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on tropical cyclone behavior with respect to century-long trends (much less the behavior of individual storms). The IPCC AR5 cites some of our peer-reviewed work in its report (Weinkle et al. 2012, Journal of Climate).

Our peer-reviewed work suggests that assuming model predictions for future changes in tropical cyclone behavior are perfectly accurate (for a range of models) that it will be many decades, even centuries, before such a signal can be detected in trend data. More generally, I have written: “In practical terms, on timescales of decision making a signal that cannot be seen is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist”

Of course, there are scientists willing to go beyond what can be supported empirically to make claims at odds with the overwhelming scientific consensus on this subject — e.g., Mann, Francis, Masters are always good for inscrutable and unsupportable quotes. Such outlier views are welcomed, as help to push science forward. But they are also a minefield for journalists, politicians and activists who may cherry pick them as if they are somehow representative.

2. What about poverty and coastal development? How much of those were as factors?

RP: In general there is an inverse relationship between loss of life and property damage. The wealthier nations become the less loss of life in big disasters (again, in general). …

UK Guardian: NYC Mayor Elect Bill de Blasio’s ‘biggest challenge is climate change’

Global Sea Level Trend – 1.08 mm/year — NOAA keeps records on 199 tide gauges which have been active this century — they show one third of the claimed University of Colorado 3.2 mm/year trend