Two new studies show that global warming is not behind California drought
Global Warming ‘Pause’ Continues — Temperature Standstill Lengthens to 18 years 4 months
El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again
Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length for the ever-Greater Pause: 18 years 4 months – and counting.
This result rather surprises me. I’d expected even a weak el Niño to have more effect that this, but it is always possible that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will come through after a lag of four or five months. On the other hand, Roy Spencer, at his always-to-the-point blog (drroyspencer.com), says: “We are probably past the point of reaching a new peak temperature anomaly from the current El Niño, suggesting it was rather weak.” I shall defer to the expert, with pleasure. For if la Niña conditions begin to cool the oceans in time, there could be quite some lengthening of the Pause just in time for the Paris world-government summit in December.
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 4 months since December 1996.
The hiatus period of 18 years 4 months, or 220 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
Given that the Paris summit is approaching and most “world leaders” are not being told the truth about the Pause, it would be a great help if readers were to do their best to let their national negotiators and politicians know that unexciting reality continues to diverge ever more spectacularly from the bizarre “settled-science” predictions on which Thermageddon was built.
The divergence between the models’ predictions in 1990 (Fig. 2) and 2005 (Fig. 3), on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, also continues to widen, and is now becoming a real embarrassment to the profiteers of doom – or would be, if the mainstream news media were actually to report the data rather than merely repeating the failed predictions of catastrophe.
Figure 2. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), for …
Will a carbon tax hurt whales?! ‘Climate change could be good news for gray whales’
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-could-be-good-news-for-gray-whales/…
How to unscientifically hype insignificant noise in ocean ‘warming’
The research, published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change, used data collected from the array of about 3500 Argo buoys from 2006-13 to show temperatures were warming at about 0.005 degrees a year down to a depth of 500 metres and 0.002 degrees between 500-2000 metres.
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The ABC don’t even mention how small the theoretical temperature change is. It’s another chance to run their favourite headline “2014 hottest on record”. Reporter Bridget Brennan didn’t ask “how much warmer are the oceans”. She didn’t ask what the error margins are either. She mentioned “international data sets” but didn’t ask if the satellites (the two best data sets) agree that 2014 was the hottest ever (they don’t). She didn’t ask about “the Pause”. The pre-ARGO data has much higher, astronomic, uncertainties.…
New paper finds oceans warming only a tiny 0.002°C-0.005°C/year since 2006
New paper finds oceans warming only a tiny 0.002°C-0.005°C/year since 2006
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/02/new-paper-finds-oceans-warming-only.html
A paper published today in Nature Climate Change claims “Unabated planetary warming…since 2006” of the world’s oceans of a tiny 0.005C/year from 0-500 meter depths and an even smaller 0.002C/year for the 500-2000 meter depths. This rate is equivalent to only 0.2°C to 0.5°C ocean warming per century, far less than the 3°C global warming by 2100 central estimate of the IPCC. Examination of the paper, however, reveals multiple questionable claims and contradictions to the claims of climate alarmists and IPCC: According to the authors, “the ocean heat gain over the 0-2000 meter layer continued at a rate of 0.4-0.6 W/m2 during 2006-2013.” However, according to the IPCC, net anthropogenic forcing is warming the planet at a rate of 1.6 W/m2 or ~3.2 times more than the central estimate of this new paper. This implies a climate sensitivity about 70% less than claimed by the IPCC. Alarmists claim “90% of the ‘missing heat’ from greenhouse gases is going into the ocean,” therefore, using the central estimate of this paper of a warming rate of 0.5 W/m2, total net anthropogenic forcing of oceans + atmosphere would be 0.5*1.1 = 0.55 W/m2, again far less (66% less) than the 1.6 W/m2 net anthropogenic forcing at present claimed by the IPCC. The above estimates falsely assume, for the purposes of argument only, that all of the ocean warming is due to increased greenhouse gases. However, IR radiation from greenhouse gases cannot significantly warm the oceans for at least 3 thermodynamic reasons as outlined here and here. Changes in solar insolation modulated by cloud cover and ocean oscillations are not even considered or discussed by this paper as potential mechanisms of the ocean warming patterns noted, but are far more likely to be the cause of any warming observed. Heat rises, and surface data indicate no global warming for 18+ years. How can zero degrees atmospheric warming cause the oceans up to 2000 meters depth to warm 0.002C/yr? It cannot, without violating thermodynamics. The uncertainties of measurement of individual ARGO floats are far greater than the claimed warming Table 1 below shows all of the warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere 0-60S, whereas the Northern Hemisphere 0-60N actually cooled from 2006-2013. This warming pattern is incompatible with anthropogenic forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases, which is alleged to be relatively uniform across the …
New Study: Sea Surface temperature warmer in both the Roman and Medieval Warm Period – Published in Chinese Science Bulletin
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2015/01/sea-surface-temperature-warmer-in-both.html…
UK Telegraph: ‘Is the pause in global warming blowing out?’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/11317974/Is-the-pause-in-global-warming-blowing-out.html…
Top German Climate Scientists See No End To ‘Warming Pause’. Now Concede Oceans A ‘Major Climate Factor’
Climate Custers’ Last Stand…Top German Climate Scientists See No End To “Warming Pause”. Now Concede Oceans A “Major Climate Factor”
Germany’s so-called Climate Consortium here has published a telling statement on this year’s “record warm year” in Germany and the reasons behind it. The Climate Consortium represents the collective position of all Germany’s scientific climate institutes. Although the statement claims the record year “fits very well in the picture of a long-term global temperature increase” it now concedes major natural fluctuations in the climate system. Less than 3 years ago, on February 6, 2012, the same site posted the following in a hasty response to skeptic book Die kalte Sonne: Pure natural fluctuations - such as changes in solar activity – on the other hand cannot be mainly responsible for the global warming of the past decades.” What a difference a couple of years can make. Now they are blaming precisely these “natural fluctuations” for the “warming pause”. Yesterday’s statement was authored by Germany’s top appointed climate experts (some are well-known IPCC scientists): Jochen Marotzke, Paul Becker, Gernot Klepper, Mojib Latif and Monika Rhein. Does anyone think they will do the honorable thing and admit that Die kalte Sonne authors Prof. Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning claims had merit after all? Professional and honorable scientists would certainly do so. On the surface the latest German Climate Consortium statement does its best to give the façade of a warming planet, but in the text the truth comes gushing out. They write that at 10.3°C, Germany this year is set to break the previous 2000 and 2007 record (9.9°C) for the highest mean annual temperature since recording began in 1881. But the statement then cautions: However, only the global mean temperature is a reliable indicator of global warming. If one takes the preliminary data for the months of January to November 2014 as a reference, then, since systematic data recording began, fourteen of the last fifteen warmest years occurred in the 21st century. Moreover it is too early to talk about an end to the now 15-year long ‘warming pause’ and to assume an accelerating warming over the coming years. The global earth’s surface temperature is subject to year-to-year and decadal fluctuations. Only with the following years will it be possible to judge to what extent global warming of the earth’s surface will resume.” This is an interesting statement. The scientists now …
Analysis: Why ‘90% of the missing heat’ cannot be hiding in the oceans
…New excuse for the ‘pause’ of global warming #58: Colder eastern Pacific and reduced heat loss in other oceans
New excuse for the “pause” of global warming #58: Colder eastern Pacific and reduced heat loss in other oceans
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/new-excuse-for-pause-of-global-warming.html
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds excuse #58 for the 18-26 year “pause” or hiatus” of global warming: Colder eastern Pacific (30% contribution) and reduced heat loss in other oceans (70% contribution). So increased heat loss in the Pacific, and decreased heat loss in the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans & subpolar North Atlantic allegedly “explain” the “pause.” Natural ocean oscillations could explain this, but not a steady rise of greenhouse gases. According to the authors, however, “A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the [natural] Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.” Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basinsS. S. Drijfhout The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3Wm−2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.
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