WaPo: Weather Service made poor decision in overplaying Nor’easter snow predictions
By Jason Samenow
The Weather Service, which has a mission to protect life and property, may have felt it was best serving the public by stressing the worst-case scenario for the big cities. But it’s a risky strategy that can cost credibility.
Trust is so important in weather prediction because, when it is eroded, the public may take forecasts less seriously in life-or-death situations.
The Weather Service doesn’t have to limit itself to communicating the worst-case scenario for the public to pay attention to a high-stakes forecast. The public is smarter than it is given credit for; it can understand uncertainty if it is explained well; and it appreciates knowing about changes to the forecast.
When Atlanta broadcast meteorologist Glenn Burns asked his viewers about the Associated Press report that the Weather Service decided not to revise its forecast even when presented with new information, many were insulted.
“We are not children,” said Jill Nelmark. “Give the most accurate forecast and accurate update.”
“It makes the NWS look less reliable for future events,” said Josh Walls.
“Give me the facts and trust me to make an intelligent decision,” said Kris Chandler.
“I think they should have been honest and said that it might not be as bad. But to still prepare in case it was,” said Suzanne Blanton.
The New York news blog Gothamist reacted to the AP report with this snarky headline: National Weather Service: Sorry, You’re Too Stupid To Trust With The REAL Forecast
The influential media aggregator Matt Drudge tweeted, “What is going on with National Weather Service? Lots of misses piling up.” He added: “Overreaction by govts, bad forecasting … very troubling trend.”
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CLAIM: ‘Global warming’ to shrink mammals — Horses down to size of cats
By SETH BORENSTEIN
WASHINGTON (AP) — Global warming shrank certain animals in the ancient past, and scientists think it could happen again.
Warm-blooded animals got smaller at least twice in Earth’s history when carbon dioxide levels soared and temperatures spiked as part of a natural warming, a new study says.
University of New Hampshire researcher Abigail D’Ambrosia warned that mammals — but not people — could shrivel in the future under even faster man-made warming.
“It’s something we need to keep an eye out for,” said D’Ambrosia, who led the new work. “The question is how fast are we going to see these changes.”
Three different species shrank noticeably about 54 million years ago when the planet suddenly heated up. One of them — an early, compact horse — got 14 percent smaller, going from about 17 pounds to 14.6 pounds, according to an analysis of fossil teeth in Wednesday’s journal Science Advances .
“These guys were probably about the size of maybe a dog, then they dwarfed,” said D’Ambrosia. “They may have gone down to the size of a cat.”
Another creature that contracted was a lemur-like animal that’s the earliest known primate. It shrank about 4 percent; while it may not seem like much, it’s noticeable because studies of the animal over millions of years showed it was usually getting bigger over time, D’Ambrosia said.
Previous studies have documented a similar shrinking of mammals, including another early horse ancestor, during an earlier warming about 56 million years ago. Scientists and farmers have also long tracked animals, such as cows, that shrink and give less milk during hotter stretches.
Flashback: ‘Global warming” could lead to 10ft reptiles
Could global warming lead to 10ft reptiles? Scientists say small plant-eating lizards could grow to the size of Komodo dragons
Fossils of a giant lizard discovered in Burma have led scientists to believe a rise in temperature 40 million years ago caused plant-eating lizards to grow to the size of the 10ft dragons.
Scientists previously thought that large meat-eating dragons grew larger than their herbivore cousins because of a lack of predators.
These findings now from from the University of California and University of Nebraska-Lincoln suggest that a warmer climate is needed for large lizards to grow – and that global warming could cause this to happen again.
Fossils discovered by the University of California of the Barbateux Morrisoni, pictured, have led scientists to believe that a rise in temperature 40 million years ago caused plant-eating lizards to grew to the size of the 10ft dragons. They now believe global warming could cause this to happen again
Fake Weather: Weather Service Rejects Accurate Snow Forecasts — Manipulates Public Instead – Copies Tactics From Climate Debate
Climate Depot Analysis
WASHINGTON DC – What the hell!? The National Weather Service (NWS) has now officially admitted its highest mission seems to be manipulating public behavior, not informing the public of the most accurate weather forecast.
Weather Con Borrows From Climate Con! WEATHER SERVICE DECIDED LAST MINUTE NOT TO CUT SNOW FORECAST – “Out of extreme caution we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in suburban Maryland, told The Associated Press. Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have given people the wrong message that the storm was no longer a threat….Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call “the windshield wiper effect” only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground. (Kudos to AP’s Seth Borenstein for a hard-hitting and informative article.)
Morano: According to the NWS, informing the public about the latest downgraded snow forecast would have ‘given people the wrong message’ and telling the public the storm fizzled “only hurts the public”!” We have now officially expanded the era of “fake news” to include “fake weather.”
This line of reasoning and manipulation of forecasts is an insult to the public and to weather forecasting professional everywhere.
The NWS’s primary function is to inform the public in situations like this, not make forecasts based on how to best influence public behavior. It is not the “National Psychiatric Service”, but the National WEATHER Service. The NWS has taken it upon themselves to decide that the public was unable to hand the truth about the 2017 Blizzard Bust.
The public expects scientifically accurate and up to the minute forecasts, not calculated politically dubious forecasts that hide the truth. At least it was refreshing to know that Washington DC, local WTOP News Radio (103.5 FM) bucked the NWS trend and featured meteorologists on Tuesday admitting the storm was fizzling for DC. It was heartening that some meteorologists were more concerned about giving the public accurate forecasts, not treating us like children who need to be lied to.
NWS Aping ‘Global Warming’ Tactics!?
Sadly, the NWS has sunk to the levels now routinely seen in the “global warming” debate. The climate change debate in many instances has morphed into the attitude of “we must not reveal to the public exactly how uncertain we are about our dire ‘global warming’ forecasts because they may not …
Weather Con Borrows From Climate Con! WEATHER SERVICE DECIDED LAST MINUTE NOT TO CUT SNOW FORECAST
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Before the first snow fell, U.S. meteorologists realized there was a good chance the late-winter storm wasn’t going to produce giant snow totals in big Northeast cities as predicted. But they didn’t change their forecasts because they said they didn’t want to confuse the public. National Weather Service meteorologists in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted snow amounts. They decided to keep the super snowy warnings. “Out of extreme caution we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in suburban Maryland, told The Associated Press. “I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions (by states and cities) taken in advance of the event were exceptional.” On Monday, the weather service predicted 18 to 24 inches of snow in New York City. By late Tuesday afternoon, Central Park was covered with a little more than 7 inches of snow with rain and sleet still falling. Other areas, including upstate New York and Connecticut, received more than a foot and a half of snow. Swaths of Pennsylvania were walloped by 20 to 30 inches of snow. Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have given people the wrong message that the storm was no longer a threat. It still was, but real danger was from ice and sleet in places like New York City and Washington, he said. Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call “the windshield wiper effect” only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground. Carbin stood by the decision. “The nature of the beast is that there’s always uncertainty in every forecast and we have to get better at describing that,” Carbin said. The right amount of precipitation fell, but it came down as rain and sleet because the rain-snow line moved inland, according to Carbin and private forecasters. The rain-snow line is a 50 mile wide north-south swath where cold Arctic air from the north and west clashes with warm, moist air from the Atlantic. West of the snow line saw heavy snow while east had rain and sleet. The snow line happens to center on New York City so it was a bigger deal than if the line had been over a rural area, said |
Analysis: How The Recent El Nino Saved Climate Models
How The Recent El Nino Saved Climate Models
http://www.thegwpf.com/how-the-recent-el-nino-saved-climate-models/
The message one is trying to get across when communicating science can depend much on what one doesn’t say. Leaving something vital out can make all the difference and when it’s done it can make scientists look like politicians, although not sophisticated ones. As an example of what I mean consider the El Nino phenomenon – a short-term oceanographic weather event. The El Nino can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least. It is obvious that computer models are running hotter than the observations over the past 30 years, but add the recent 2015-6 El Nino and things look much better. Let me show you an example of this. Recently a group of academics kindly produced a graph intended to “help” journalists. They labeled it, “selflessly helping the Mail Online to improve their science coverage.” It shows how the HadCRUT4 global surface temperature data is “still rising” which is laid over climate models showing how accurately the models simulate the data. It is a classic example of misinformation by omission, or in other words how to enlist the short-term 2015-6 El Nino weather event to rescue long-term computer models. It is a prime example of bad science communication. Also shown is how this trick can be applied to satellite data. Let’s see what it looks like when the unmarked El Nino on the graph starts to come down, as it has done. Another variation of this technique can be seen in a recent TV interview of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientist Ben Santer by Seth Myres. Guest and presenter took aim at Senator Ted Cruz’ comments that satellite data show no warming in 17 years. SANTER: Listen to what he said. Satellite data. So satellite measurements of atmospheric temperature show no significant warming over the last 17 years, and we tested it. We looked at all of the satellite data in the world, from all groups, and wanted to see, was he right or not? And he was wrong. Even if you focus on a small segment of the now 38-year satellite temperature record — the last 17 years — he was demonstrably wrong. More importantly, if you look at the entire record it shows strong evidence of a human effect on climate. Warming of the lower atmosphere. Cooling of …
Statistician trashes Obama cost estimates of climate: ‘Manipulated by regulators & bureaucrats’
Testifying before Congress, Ph.D. statistician Kevin Dayaratna trashes the Obama era Interagency Working Group (IWG) estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) — a metric to quantify economic damages associated with carbon dioxide emissions used to justify increased government regulations.
DR. DAYARATNA: “There are a variety of issues with these SCCs– the IAMs (Integrated Assessment Models) associated with these SCCs. The most fundamental issue is that they are extremely sensitive to very, very reasonable changes in assumptions. As I was referring to using the time horizon to 300 years, if you shift that to 150 years, which is still unrealistic, you get a drastically different estimate of the SCC. The discount rate– if you use a 7 percent discount rate, as mandated by the OMB(Office of Management and Budget), under the FUND model you will get a negative Social Cost of Carbon. And, the policy implication there would be that we shouldn’t be taxing carbon dioxide emissions but subsidizing it.”
Hearing: At what cost? Examining the Social Cost of Carbon
Subcommittee on Environment
US House Science Committee
February 28, 2017…
New Paper: Computer Predictions Of Climate Alarm Are Flawed
New Paper: Computer Predictions Of Climate Alarm Are Flawed
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-paper-computer-predictions-of-climate-alarm-are-flawed/
Claims that the planet is threatened by man-made global warming are based on science that is based on inadequate computer modelling. That is the conclusion of a new briefing paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). The report’s author, eminent American climatologist Professor Judith Curry, explains that climate alarm depends on highly complex computer simulations of the Earth’s climate. But although scientists have expended decades of effort developing them, these simulations still have to be “tuned” to get them to match the real climate. This makes them essentially useless for trying to find out what is causing changes in the climate and unreliable for making predictions about what will happen in the future. Professor Curry said: “It’s not just the fact that climate simulations are tuned that is problematic. It may well be that it is impossible to make long-term predictions about the climate – it’s a chaotic system after all. If that’s the case, then we are probably trying to redesign the global economy for nothing”. Prof Curry recently announced that she was abandoning academic life due to the attacks on her research and the “craziness” of the climate debate. Full paper (pdf)
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New Paper: Computer Predictions Of Climate Alarm Are Flawed
New Paper: Computer Predictions Of Climate Alarm Are Flawed
http://www.thegwpf.org/new-paper-computer-predictions-of-climate-alarm-are-flawed/
Claims that the planet is threatened by man-made global warming are based on science that is based on inadequate computer modelling. That is the conclusion of a new briefing paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). The report’s author, eminent American climatologist Professor Judith Curry, explains that climate alarm depends on highly complex computer simulations of the Earth’s climate. But although scientists have expended decades of effort developing them, these simulations still have to be “tuned” to get them to match the real climate. This makes them essentially useless for trying to find out what is causing changes in the climate and unreliable for making predictions about what will happen in the future. Professor Curry said: “It’s not just the fact that climate simulations are tuned that is problematic. It may well be that it is impossible to make long-term predictions about the climate – it’s a chaotic system after all. If that’s the case, then we are probably trying to redesign the global economy for nothing”. Prof Curry recently announced that she was abandoning academic life due to the attacks on her research and the “craziness” of the climate debate. Full paper (pdf)
— gReader Pro…
Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be ‘Worst/Costliest’ In 12 Years
Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be “Worst/Costliest” In 12 Years!
Ocala, FL (PRWEB) Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) veteran meteorologist David Dilley says in his early forecast that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be stronger than last year – with the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls.
It will also be the most dangerous since the 2005 season, which saw 5 hurricane landfalls and 2 tropical storms.
GWO has issued the most accurate preseason predictions of any organization the past 8 years, including last years’ prediction that the “Atlantic Basin” (which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) – would enter a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle in 2016.
David Dilley, Senior Meteorologist for Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) – correctly predicted months in advance that GWO’s prediction zones for the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s East Coast northward to North Carolina – would experience hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions in 2016, with multiple strikes likely (see GWO’s 2016 hot-spot predictions graphic).
Here is the GWO’s prediction from last year.
As it turned out – 5 named storms made United States landfalls with Hurricane Hermine making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the Eastern Upper Gulf (see Hot Spots graphic). But more importantly was Hurricane Matthew – a major hurricane that moved north across Haiti and the Western Bahama’s – then hugged the coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina. 1,739 people died from hurricanes in 2016, most of which were from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The last time the death toll was that high was in 2005 when nearly 4,000 people were killed by hurricanes.
The official hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends December 1. The Atlantic Basin on average has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. As predicted by GWO, the 2016 hurricane season was more dangerous and costlier than average. The official season (minus Hurricane Alex in January) – had 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – and the United States experienced much above normal activity with 5 out of the 14 named storms making landfall in GWO’s predicted Hot Spots, 2 of which were hurricanes (Mathew and Hermine).
2017 prediction
GWO’s Climate Pulse Hurricane Model indicates that 2017 will once again be influenced by a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle –