Did Hurricane Matthew Ever Get Anywhere Near Cat 5? ‘Wind speeds are not based on actual measurements’

By Paul Homewood

According to the official records, it hit 160 mph sustained speeds on 1st October, making it the first Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2007. Apparently, if you believe the official view of events, Matthew intensified from a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.

However, extremely suspiciously, it only stayed at Cat 5 for 6 hours, before weakening. (In fact, NOAA’s records are at 6-hourly intervals – Matthew reached Cat 5 speeds of 140 Kts at 6.00am on Oct 1st, but dipped to Cat 4 speeds of 135 Kts at 12.00 am. Therefore it stayed at Cat 5 speeds for UNDER 6 hours.)

 

However, as I have pointed out before, these categorisation of wind speeds are not based on actual measurements, as they would have been in the past. Instead, they are derived from Track History, which in NOAA’s own words is defined as:

Track history for each storm is created from the operational warnings that are issued every six hours by NHC, CPHC , and JTWC . The positions and intensities are best estimates of those quantities when the warning is issued. THESE ARE NOT BEST TRACKS – having not been reanalyzed in any systematic manner.

So, somehow, Matthew’s windspeeds are supposed to have risen precipitously not in actuality, but because that is what was forecast by NOAA.

 

But what actually happened?

Whether we trust what the satellites tell us or not, NOAA’s actual plots show that Matthew barely got above 100 Kts, and nowhere near the green line, which is the Best Track which they forecast, and on which all of the hyped news reports have been based on. (100 Kts would put Matthew as a Cat 3).

 

 …

Hillary’s Claim That Matthew Was Caused By ‘Climate Change’ Refuted By Science

By Brittany M. Hughes | October 12, 2016 2:19pm ET

There are a few glaring problems with Clinton’s premise that Hurricane Matthew was actually worse because of “climate change” – the first and most obvious being the question, worse than what? There was no bare-minimum destruction standard for Matthew, or any other hurricane for that matter. It was what it was, and any one of a million different variables could have caused it to turn out differently. This wild assumption of a statement may seek to carry emotional weight to influence voters, but it’s heavily lacking in factual evidence.

But if past hurricanes are the standard by which Clinton and her climate town criers are judging Matthew, it doesn’t take long to deflate that argument, either. As noted meteorologist Anthony Watts points out in his response to Clinton’s comments, Matthew was far from the worst hurricane in history:

…Matthew only spent 6 hours as a category 5 storm, the record was the “Cuba” hurricane in 1932 with 78 hours as a Cat5.

…The worst hurricane ever to hit the USA was The Great Galveston Hurricane in 1900, which killed up to 6000 people, long before CO2 ever became an issue.

Watts also pointed out it’s been 11 years since a category three or higher hurricane or made landfall in the U.S. – something we’ve reported on extensively here at the Media Research Center – along with a handy chart showing that tropical storms and hurricanes pretty much haven’t changed – if anything, they’ve actually decreased – over the last 50 years.

 

Figure from Dr. Ryan Maue: Last 4-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane frequency — 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of TCs that reach at least tropical storm strength (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 34-knots). The bottom time series is the number of hurricane strength (64-knots+) TCs.

 

So when making broad claims about the coming climate apocalypse, perhaps Ms. Clinton should collect a bit of back-up evidence from one of the “97 percent of scientists” who allegedly support the theory, and whose identities remain cloudy to this day.

But then again, this is the politically-motivated climate agenda we’re talking about here: where the threats are made up, and the science don’t matter.…

‘Are Global Warming Alarmists Disappointed Hurricane Matthew Wasn’t Worse?’

Their impatient craving for a crisis was summed up well two years ago in August when a fellow named Greg Blanchette tweeted that he “kind of” hoped that North America “gets its ass kicked this hurricane season. It would motivate us on climate action.”

Is this the same Greg Blanchette who proposed that service stations be forced to placefrightening global warming warnings on gas-pump nozzles, an idea that’s now law in North Vancouver, British Columbia? Maybe not. But it doesn’t matter. If they’re not the same person, it simply means there are two climate cranks running loose out there with the same name.

A couple of years before Blanchette was wishing for wreck and ruin, British naturalist David Attenborough said that “disaster” was needed to wake people up to the threat of climate change.

The “disasters” the U.S. had experience up to that point “with hurricanes and floods”, he said, “doesn’t do it,” so the crisis he was been hoping for must be truly cataclysmic.

On Friday, as Matthew barreled up Florida’s coast, Marshall Shepherd, a professor in atmospheric sciences at the University of Georgia, tweeted about the “ridiculous complaining” he was seeing about the hurricane being less severe than expected.

“Some seem disappointed there isn’t tragic loss of life/apocalyptic,” he said.…

Monckton & Soon: Clinton, Gore and U.N., Profiteers of Doom, vs. Donald Trump, Prophet of Freedom

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/12/monckton-soon-clinton-gore-u-n-profiteers-doom-vs-donald-trump-prophet-freedom/

First, the rate of global warming has not been accelerating. In fact, it is little more than half of what the UN had predicted in 1990, even though, despite the squandering of hundreds of billions on the climate scam, CO2 emissions are rising faster than predicted.

Secondly, Hurricane Matthew was no worse for global warming. Until it struck the U.S. coast, no hurricane of category 3 or more had made landfall for 4001 days – the longest period without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. since records began almost 150 years ago. Warmer weather reduces the temperature differentials that drive storms, making severe hurricanes less likely.

Thirdly, sea level, which Gore and Clinton said was a big issue for Florida’s coastline, has not been accelerating, though the south-eastern seaboard of the U.S. has been subsiding.

Fourthly, there is no “consensus”. Two of us were co-authors of a paper printed last year that examined 11,944 peer-reviewed papers on climate and related subject published in the learned journals over the 21 years 1991-2001. Just 41 papers – 0.3 percent of the sample – went as far as to say that what little global warming there has been in recent decades was mostly manmade.

In 2007, one of us ran ads in major daily papers throughout the U.S. challenging Al Gore to a debate about global warming. He was too terrified to accept. In 2009, one of us asked him how much global warming would be prevented if the U.S. stopped emitting CO2 altogether. Gore could not answer: for the truth is that global temperature would barely change.

The cost of compliance with the Paris climate agreement has been estimated at $90 trillion over the next 14 years. Yet that monstrous sum – four times the entire federal debt – would not even reduce global temperature by a tenth of a degree.

Measures to tackle global warming that are inexpensive enough to be ineffective will be unaffordable. Measures that are expensive enough to be effective are unaffordable. And there is no climate crisis anyway. As a recent Pew survey showed, the global warming scam is now a vote-loser for its promoters. We, the people, are no longer fooled.…

Fact checking Al Gore’s first climate rally in hurricane-ravaged Florida

Former Vice President Al Gore rallied yesterday with #Hillary Clinton to young Miami voters about #Climate Change, even as attendees seemed more engaged with their smartphones than the so-called risks from a global climate apocalypse. Clinton rope-a-doped Gore into hitting the campaign trail despite their decades-long ‘cold war.’ Clinton is hoping to scoop up Bernie Sanders’ supporters thinking of voting for Green party candidate Jill Stein but weary of Clinton’s climate creds.

Clinton knows that millennials are generally more worried about global warming, except anyone born after 1998 hasn’t experienced any statistical warming. Those who were too young to remember Gore’s 2000 run don’t recall the circumstances behind his failed presidential bid. Gore’s other goal was to give the mostly Miami Dade Collegecrowd a history lesson about losing an election by 500 votes because people voted for Ralph Nader.

Gore and Clinton Hold a Wonkfest http://politi.co/2dcemrF 

Photo published for Gore and Clinton Hold a Wonkfest

Gore and Clinton Hold a Wonkfest

They came to talk about climate. They really talked about … climate. What if the 2016 race had been about policy?

politico.com

“Take it from me it was a very close election,” Gore said. That prompted some to cheer “You won.” He didn’t. Gore lost his home state of Tennessee, too, plus a host of other traditionally blue states.

This is the first time Gore has come out to rally during #Election 2016, and sources close to Clinton’s campaign said he would only do it if he could focus on the so-called “climate crisis.” He sat out the convention and gave a tepid endorsement of Clinton on Twitter.

Treating the truth like taffy

Gore said there has been a three-inch sea level rise since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew struck Florida. But tidal gauges and satellite altimeters show only a sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year. That would be about 28 mm since 1992, or 1.1 inches. He was off nearly 300 percent.

Gore also brought up the unique phenomenon in Miami that allow “fish from the ocean to swim on the streets of Miami-Dade and Delray, Ft. Lauderdale.” But that assertion has no basis in fact, wrote the Miami Herald when President Obama made the same claim.

Miami Is Sinking, Sea Level

Clinton & Gore blame hurricanes, extreme weather on ‘global warming’

Clinton: ‘Hurricane Matthew Was Likely More Destructive Because of Climate Change’

By Susan Jones | October 12, 2016 | 5:40 AM EDT

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, right, accompanied by former Vice President Al Gore, left, takes the stage for a rally at Miami Dade College in Miami, Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

(CNSNews.com) – Of all the problems facing this nation, climate change is at the top, Democrat Hillary Clinton told a campaign rally in Miami, Florida on Tuesday.

“And I will tell you this — it is one of the most important issues at stake in this election,” she said.

Appearing with climate change activisit Al Gore — her husband’s vice president — Clinton capitalized on Florida’s recent brush with Hurricane Matthew, saying the storm was “likely more destructive because of climate change.”

She painted a doom-and-gloom scenario of rising oceans, Zika-spreading mosquitoes, and a rise in asthma and allergy cases due to longer pollen seasons.

“Look at it this way,” Clinton said. “Our next president will either step up our efforts to address climate change to protect our planet, to protect our health, and to create good jobs that cannot be outsourced, by growing our clean energy economy — or, in the alternative, we will be dragged backwards, and our whole future will be put at risk. So we’ve really got to get this right.

“And if you need additional convincing, just remember what happened this week. Hurricane Matthew killed at least 26 people in our country, more than 1,000 as far as we know right now in Haiti. North Carolina is still dealing with serious flooding…Now some will say, we’ve always had hurricanes. They’ve always been destructive. And that’s true.

“But Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change. Right now, the ocean is at or near record high temperatures, and that contributed to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding that we saw in the Carolinas. Sea levels have already risen about a foot — one foot — in much of the Southeast, which means that Matthew’s storm surge was higher and the flooding was more severe.

“Plus, as you know, the impact of climate change goes beyond extreme events like hurricanes. It’s become a daily reality here in Miami.” Clinton noted that streets in Miami Beach are now flooding at high tide. “The ocean is bubbling up through the sewer

Hillary Clinton: ‘Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change’

 With Al Gore by her side, Hillary Clinton channeled climate change alarmism into her speech in Florida, by blaming Hurricane Matthew on global warming.

“Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change right now,” she said, citing “record high” ocean temperatures.

She insisted that climate change “contributed” to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding in North and South Carolina.

“Sea levels have risen one foot in much of the Southeast which means Matthew’s storm surge was higher and the flooding more severe,” she said ominously.

It didn’t stop there.

Clinton and Gore teamed up to warn that most of the destructive natural disasters in the past decade were a result of climate change.

Global warming, Gore said, was creating the energy that was “equivalent to what would be released by 400,000 Hiroshima class atomic bombs going off every day.”

Zika and Lyme disease were more threatening because summers lasted longer, they argued, allowing ticks and mosquitoes to live longer.

“Every single night on the television news is like a major hike through the Book of Revelation,” Gore said. “You look at the floods and the droughts and the mudslides and the fires and the incredible downpours…”

Longer summers made it worse for children who suffered from allergies and asthma, Clinton said, and also caused more wildfires.

Gore urged Floridians to vote for Hillary Clinton, because she would take climate change seriously.

“Mother Nature is giving us a very clear and powerful message,” he said. “We cannot continue putting 110 million tons of global warming pollution into the atmosphere every day as if it’s an open sewer. We’ve got to stop that.”

30 peer-reviewed scientific papers reveal the lack of connection between hurricanes & ‘global warming’

Via: http://notrickszone.com/2016/10/10/scientific-consensus-30-papers-global-warming-leads-to-less-intense-less-frequent-hurricanes/

By on 10. October 2016

Below there are 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers that summarize the literature on the lack of connection between ocean temperatures and hurricane variability.  Perhaps Sutter and Mann could find these educational.

No Trend Or Reduced Intensity Of Landfalling Hurricanes With Warming

Perrie et al., 2010

The impact of climate change is seen in slightly decreased intensities in landfalling cyclones.”

Klotzbach and Landsea, 2015

“[T]be global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend [1990-2014].”

Zhang et al., 2012

The various SST measures only have a weak influence on TMLGP[tropical cyclones making landfall, South China] intensities. Despite the long-term warming trend in SST in the WNP, no long-term trend is observed in either the frequency or intensities of TMLGP[tropical cyclones making landfall, South China].”

Landsea et al., 1996

A long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., averaged over all cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a significant change.”

Hsu et al., 2014

All of the counts, lifespans, and accumulated cyclone energy of the late-season typhoons during the 1995–2011 epoch decreased significantly, compared with typhoons that occurred during the 1979–94 epoch.”

Hoarau et al., 2012

There has been no trend towards an increase in the number of categories 3–5 cyclones over the last 30 years.”

Chang et al., 2016

“Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high impact weather over the mid-latitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America.”

Wu et al., 2006

[D]ata show a decrease in the proportion of category 4-5 typhoons from 18% to 8% between the two periods of 1977-1989 and 1990-2004 (Table 1; intensity estimates in terms of sustained maximum winds first became available in RSMC-Tokyo best track data in 1977).”

Chan and Liu, 2004

No significant correlation was found between the typhoon activity parameters and local SST [during 1960-2003]. In other words,an increase in local