Warren Buffett says ‘global warming’ is not impacting insurance industry
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett on Monday said he has not yet seen sufficient evidence that climate change is affecting weather events to a degree that would make him change the way his conglomerate’s insurance businesses write policies.
Events such as Hurricane Sandy have raised concerns that global warming is increasing the intensity and frequency of so-called superstorms.
“I have not seen anything yet that would cause me to change the way we look at evaluating quakes, tornadoes, hurricanes by atmosphere. Now, that may happen some day,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
He added that the frequency of Florida hurricanes has been “quite low” for roughly the last decade compared to historical trends, and storms in the Sunshine State, Texas and the U.S. Southeast have been “remarkably benign.”
Buffett delivered a similar assessment in last year’s annual letter to shareholders. In that letter, he said climate change had not up until then “produced more frequent nor more costly hurricanes nor other weather-related events covered by insurance.”
That caused rates for super-catastrophe insurance to fall, leading Berkshire to back away from the products, according to Buffett. Costlier and more frequent “super-cats” would actually likely benefit Berkshire’s insurance business, he wrote.
At the time the letter was released, Buffett was facing a proposal from a shareholder that asked Berkshire to report on the dangers climate change poses to the company’s insurance operations.
Research shows it is premature to conclude greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
NOAA added human-caused global warming is likely to make tropical cyclones around the world more intense by the end of the century, increasing the destructive potential of storms. NOAA also says research shows “better than even odds” that warming will increase the frequency in some — but not all — parts of the world.
Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be ‘Worst/Costliest’ In 12 Years
Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be “Worst/Costliest” In 12 Years!
Ocala, FL (PRWEB) Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) veteran meteorologist David Dilley says in his early forecast that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be stronger than last year – with the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls.
It will also be the most dangerous since the 2005 season, which saw 5 hurricane landfalls and 2 tropical storms.
GWO has issued the most accurate preseason predictions of any organization the past 8 years, including last years’ prediction that the “Atlantic Basin” (which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) – would enter a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle in 2016.
David Dilley, Senior Meteorologist for Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) – correctly predicted months in advance that GWO’s prediction zones for the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s East Coast northward to North Carolina – would experience hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions in 2016, with multiple strikes likely (see GWO’s 2016 hot-spot predictions graphic).
Here is the GWO’s prediction from last year.
As it turned out – 5 named storms made United States landfalls with Hurricane Hermine making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the Eastern Upper Gulf (see Hot Spots graphic). But more importantly was Hurricane Matthew – a major hurricane that moved north across Haiti and the Western Bahama’s – then hugged the coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina. 1,739 people died from hurricanes in 2016, most of which were from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The last time the death toll was that high was in 2005 when nearly 4,000 people were killed by hurricanes.
The official hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends December 1. The Atlantic Basin on average has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. As predicted by GWO, the 2016 hurricane season was more dangerous and costlier than average. The official season (minus Hurricane Alex in January) – had 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – and the United States experienced much above normal activity with 5 out of the 14 named storms making landfall in GWO’s predicted Hot Spots, 2 of which were hurricanes (Mathew and Hermine).
2017 prediction
GWO’s Climate Pulse Hurricane Model indicates that 2017 will once again be influenced by a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle –
New study: Atlantic Hurricane Numbers Decreasing Despite Increases In Atmospheric CO2
Atlantic Hurricane Numbers Decreasing Despite Increases In Atmospheric CO2
http://www.thegwpf.com/atlantic-hurricane-numbers-decreasing-despite-increases-in-atmospheric-co2/
Study of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, during the period 1749 to 2012, reveals that “the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time.” Paper Reviewed Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D.A., Sánchez, N.L. and Monreal-Gómez, M.A. 2016. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 148: 48-52. Although some climate alarmists contend that CO2-induced global warming will increase the number of hurricanes in the future, the search for such effect on Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone frequency has so far remained elusive. And with the recent publication of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016), it looks like climate alarmists will have to keep on looking, or accept the likelihood that something other than CO2 is at the helm in moderating Atlantic hurricane frequency. In their intriguing analysis published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, the four-member research team of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. developed a new database of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, spanning twenty-six decades over the period 1749 to 2012. Statistical analysis of the record revealed “the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time,” which finding is quite stunning considering that it is quite possible fewer hurricanes were recorded at the beginning of their record when data acquisition was considerably worse than towards the end of the record. Nevertheless, as the Mexican research team indicates, “when analyzing the entire time series built for this study, i.e., from 1749 to 2012, the linear trend in the number of hurricanes is decreasing” (see figure below)…. Figure 1. Annual hurricane count in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea over the period 1749-2012. Red line indicates the linear trend. Source: Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016). Full post
— gReader Pro…
Gore Rewrites ‘Inconvenient’ Claim about NYC Flooding in ‘Sequel’
By Julia A. Seymour
Critics gave former Vice President Al Gore grief for predicting in An Inconvenient Truth that major cities including lower Manhattan would be underwater if severe ice melt occurred.
Now Gore is rewriting history to claim his prediction came true in promotion footage of his upcoming film, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, which debuted at Sundance on Jan. 19.
In this case, context is the difference between honesty and self-interested revisionism.
In his 2006 film, Gore warned, “If Greenland broke up and melted or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica broke up and melted this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida [animation shown with much of the state underwater].”
Immediately, after showing Florida, Gore showed animations of drowning cities and countries: San Francisco, The Netherlands, Beijing, Shanghai, Calcutta and then Manhattan.
“But this is what would happen to Manhattan, they can measure this precisely,” Gore warned as he showed his audience much of the city underwater, including the area where the memorial would be built.
Now, he’s twisted his original words to make it appear his prediction about Manhattan came true.
“Ten years ago when the movie An Inconvenient Truth came out, the single most criticized scene was an animated scene showing that the combination of sea level rise and storm surge would put the ocean water into the 9/11 memorial site, which was then under construction. And people said, ‘That’s ridiculous. What a terrible exaggeration,” Gore claimed in a newly released clip from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power. [Emphasis added]
In that clip, Gore then shows “Superstorm Sandy” footage of water flooding lower Manhattan, including the memorial site and a quote from Gov. Andrew Cuomo blaming climate change, to prove true Gore’s claim from 11 years ago.
But his original prediction was not about extenuating circumstances of a storm like Sandy slamming into New York or any “storm surge” at all. It was about the sea level rise that would be generated as (he predicted) ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica escalated dramatically.
The latest maps show that Greenland still has ice 11 years after Gore’s prediction of catastrophic melt due to global warming.
What’s worse than Gore’s rewrite of history is that online media not only aren’t exposing it, they’re perpetuating the distortion. EcoWatch reported on Jan. 23, “Al Gore’s Prediction Came True.” SlashFilm.com …
Dr. Pielke Jr. mocks new claim: ‘A magic force field’ is now preventing land-falling hurricanes? – Warmists scramble to explain lack of extreme weather
Background:
Roger Pielke Jr. wrote last month in the WSJ, “There is scant evidence to indicate that hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought have become more frequent or intense in the U.S. or globally. In fact we are in an era of good fortune when it comes to extreme weather.”
What Global Warming? Chart Shows Damage From Weather Disaster Is Sharply Declining
‘We are on pace for one of the quietest tornadoes years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season.’
Also see Climate Depot’s new 44 page consensus busting ‘State of the Climate Report’
SETTLED SCIENCE: CLIMATE ‘QUIRK’ PROTECTING US FROM HURRICANES
A new study thinks it knows why Matthew (thankfully) didn’t live up to expectations, and it has some very welcome implications for Americans living at the end of Hurricane Alley. The AP reports:
A climatic quirk seems to be slightly shielding the U.S. coast during busy hurricane seasons, often weakening major storms just as they approach America’s beaches, a new study finds. That could help explain why it’s been more than 11 years since a major hurricane with winds of more than 110 mph has hit the United States mainland. […]
Kossin’s study published Wednesday in the journal Nature found that shifts in air and ocean conditions over decades work together to weaken major storms along the U.S. coast. This protective barrier begins around the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, and gets more noticeable around the Atlantic coast, Kossin said.
Greens have been busy in recent years warning that climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events. That’s a difficult link to delineate, in part because weather—and yes, that includes storms—isn’t climate. The former changes day-to-day and week-to-week, while the latter involves much longer time scales. Researchers can identify certain changing conditions in our planet’s climate that are more conducive to extreme weather, but it’s much more difficult to point at a specific natural disaster and say “that’s climate change at work.” That’s devilishly difficult to prove, and that sort of rhetoric has been shown to be particularly divisive for the public.
Not all scientists agree that there’s a demonstrable link between an uptick in extreme weather and climate change, either. In a piece entitled My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic, Roger Pielke Jr. wrote last month in the WSJ, “There is scant evidence to indicate that hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought have become more frequent or intense in the U.S. or globally. In fact we are in an era of good fortune when it comes to extreme weather.” He goes on to detail the professional and political backlash he’s endured for publishing his conclusions on this topic.Pielke’s observations may now have a better explanation, at least when it comes to hurricanes. The New York Times sums up this latest research: “When climatic conditions favor a lot of hurricane activity, they also create a buffer zone that weakens the storms as they approach the coastal United States.” How fortunate!This latest development in climate science brings up two important points. …
What Global Warming? Chart Shows Damage From Weather Disaster Is Sharply Declining
Damage from weather-related disasters is in sharp decline, according to data compiled by University of Colorado professor Roger Pielke, Jr.
The chart indicates that the cost of weather-related disasters as a proportion of the global economy is declining. Data for the chart comes from the the reinsurance company Munich Re, the United Nations and Pielke’s own research.
Damage from weather events in 2015 was much less costly than expected, according to a study by an insurance industry group.
Severe winter weather has caused most insurance industry losses in recent years. Global warming and El Niño — a weather event that warms up ocean temperatures in South America, causing the United states to get unusually warm for a year — abated these insurance costs, according to Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.
Historically, hurricanes are the insurance industry’s biggest weather-related expense, but no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. during 2015. Additionally, no major hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. in the last decade, setting a new record. Scientists, however, expect global warming will lead to fewer, but slightly stronger, hurricanes.
Deaths from natural disasters and weather also dropped significantly, according to the study and other sources. Natural disasters claimed 280 lives in the U.S. in 2015 and 270 lives in 2014, which is dramatically below the 30-year annual average of 580 deaths.…
Another Down Year in USA For Tornadoes & Major Hurricanes
By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc. – vencoreweather.com
Overview
Whether you’re talking about major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes or tornadoes, there is good news this year for the US in that – similar to most recent years – these extreme weather-related events are down across the nation compared-to-normal. In fact, in the case of tornadoes, we are on pace for one of the quietest years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season.
Hurricanes
In our springtime “Tropical Outlook”, Vencore Weather indicated it would likely be an above-normal tropical season in the Atlantic Basin which includes the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. As it stands now, the Atlantic Basin saw 15 named storms during 2016, including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole) in the first above-normal season since 2012. A major factor in that above-normal outlook was the anticipated demise of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean which peaked late in 2015. El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) actually has an inhibiting effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin as it tends to increase wind shear in that region. Five named storms made landfall in the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms struck; however, none of these were of major hurricane status. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, and Hurricane Hermine made landfall in Florida. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South Carolina. The strongest and longest-lived storm of the season was Matthew, which reached maximum sustained surface winds of 160 miles per hour and lasted as a major hurricane for eight days from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. In fact, Matthew was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007.
Much of this year’s tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin stayed out over the Atlantic Ocean sparing the US with any landfalling major hurricanes. In fact, this major hurricane drought in the US continues an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era which began in the middle 1800’s. The last major hurricane
Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: ‘Hillary Clinton Boards The Climate Crisis Train To Nowhere’
Furthermore, the overall increases in such things as hurricanes and tornadoes have not materialized. Drought in the western U.S. pales in comparison to the mega-droughts tree rings tell us existed in centuries past.
…
Lake-bottom sediments in Florida tell us that recent major hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has been less frequent than in centuries past. Strong Sandy-type storms occur every year in all the major ocean basins… they just don’t happen to hit major metropolitan areas. It has now, even after Hurricane Matthew, been over 4,000 days since a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) has made landfall in the U.S.
Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every ten years. If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10-14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade? If Hillary would have fact-checked her example of sea level rise in Norfolk, Virginia, she would have found out that the experts already know this is mostly due to the land there sinking.
To the extent that the cost of weather disasters has risen over time, that is well known to be the result of modern society building more infrastructure in areas that are prone to damage from weather—which is almost everywhere.
So, to keep the masses alarmed, politicians must claim that what is normal is actually abnormal—and getting worse. And, furthermore, that only they can fix it … and thereby save your children and grandchildren.
And it is that “fix” that really sinks any current plan politicians have to address climate change. Even the modern godfather of global warming, ex-NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James Hansen, has admitted that the Paris climate agreement is “a fraud really, a fake.” This is because even if the countries of the world agree to do what they promised on climate change, and that climate change is entirely our fault, and that climate change really will ultimately get bad, the promised actions will have no measurable effect on future global temperatures.…
Former Federal Hurricane Director ‘appalled’ at Hillary’s ‘false’ climate claims
Neil L. Frank, Ph.D. (Meteorology), the longest-serving Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987) and retired Chief Meteorologist of KHOU-TV, Houston (1987–2008)
As former Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987), I was appalled when, in a campaign rally at Miami-Dade College October 11, Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said, “Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change.” That is false.
We were extremely fortunate that Matthew—category 5 through much of the Caribbean—weakened to category 2 before landfall in South Carolina. It could have been much worse.
In 1893 a much stronger hurricane followed nearly the same track. When its eye reached the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, a 15–20 ft. storm surge inundated the coastal islands. Though population was a small fraction of today’s, between 2,000 and 3,000 died, making that the second deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. The same year another major hurricane killed 2,000 in Louisiana.
All together five hurricanes hit the U.S. in 1893, something that’s happened only 4 times in over 150 years (1886, 1893, 1916, 1933)—all long before CO2 levels rose enough to theoretically cause rapid global warming.
Clinton wants us to believe CO2, emitted when we burn fossil fuels for electricity and transportation vital to life, health, and prosperity, causes global warming that causes more and stronger hurricanes. She’s wrong.
There has been a worldwide 30-year lull in hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones despite the simultaneous warming—manmade or natural. It has been 11 years since a major hurricane hit the U.S. Before that we expected, on average, 1 every 2 years. In the 7 years 1944–1950, well before the rapid rise of CO2, 6 hit Florida alone.
Clinton is ignorant about more than hurricanes. Based on computer climate models that fail test after test, predicting two to three times the observed warming, she claimed that because of rising sea level driven by manmade warming, “one in eight homes in Florida could be underwater by the end of the century.”
Empirical observation says otherwise. Since 1992 sea level in Miami has risen only a little over 1 inch—a rate of 4.2 inches per century, no faster than for millennia. Mrs. Clinton is wrong. It’s not time to move to the mountains.
Yes, Earth’s atmosphere is warming. It has been, off and on, for 150 years. What causes it? CO2, natural cycles, or some combination? Sun and ocean current …