NOAA bastardizes science in Louisiana rain modeling study – Climatologists, data, & history refute NOAA’s claims

Climate Depot Special Report
NOAA & Media hype yet another weather event as some kind of evidence of ‘climate change.’
NOAA: Climate Change increased odds for Louisiana downpour | FOX 61
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Climate Depot’s Collection of Rebuttals to NOAA’s latest modeling claim: 
Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. slams NOAA study as “manipulation of science for political reasons.”
“From under reviewed paper to NOAA PR to USA Today. A dismaying example of manipulation of science for political reasons.”
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Dr. Pielke, Sr., wrote that “NOAA should be embarrassed doing this press release.  “It is only submitted for review! But PR shows NOAA bias,” he added.

Climate skeptics scoff as NOAA quickly links global warming, La. floods – Wash Times features Climate Depot – Heidi Cullen’s involvement came as a red flag for Georgia Tech climate scientist Judith A. Curry, who also raised questions about releasing the study before a peer review. “This study involves several scientists from NOAA, along with a scientist that works for an advocacy group,” said Ms. Curry in an email. “NOAAhas a team in Boulder, Colorado (led by Marty Hoerling) that typically conducts quite sensible analyses of such extreme events. So I don’t know why NOAA issued such a press release about a new publication without checking with this other team at NOAA.”

NOAA Slammed For ‘Laughable,’ ‘Biased’ Study Blaming Global Warming For Louisiana Floods

NOAA exploits Louisiana floods in flawed study

1000 year rainfall study suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse

Heavy Rain Used To Be Caused By Global Cooling, But Now Caused By Global Warming: Time Mag. 1974: ‘During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries’

Flashback NOAA 1974: ‘Extreme weather events blamed on global cooling’ – NOAA October 1974: ‘Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world’

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Flashback 1981: Climatologists blame recurring droughts & floods on a global cooling trend that could trigger massive tragedies for mankind’

Chicago Tribune – Nov. 25, 1981 

Analysis: NOAA rain modeling study ‘has no scientific basis, and ignores all available actual data’ – ‘Man-Made Modeling Abuse Increases The Odds Of NOAA Fraud’ – Real Climate Science website: ‘The NOAA

Flashback NOAA 1974: ‘Extreme weather events blamed on global cooling’

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/08/25-new-papers-confirm-a-remarkably-stable-modern-climate-fewer-intense-storms-hurricanes-droughts-floods-fires/

In the 1970s, extreme weather events were blamed on global cooling

Interestingly, in the 1970s it was common for severe weather anomalies (for example, the deadly catastrophic drought plodding throughout the continent of Africa) to be linked to the global cooling occurring at that time.  In 1974, NOAA acknowledged that many climate scientists had linked the drought and other extreme weather anomalies to the -0.5°C drop in temperatures that had occurred from the 1940s to 1970s.

NOAA, October 1974

“In the Sahelian zone of Africa south of the Sahara, the countries of Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Upper Volta are enduring a drought that in some areas has been going on for more than six years now, following some 40 previous years of abundant monsoon rainfall. And the drought is spreading—eastward into Ehtiopia and southward into Dahomey, Egypt, Guinea, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and Zaire. … Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world.Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes. A drop of only one or two degrees Centigrade in the annual average temperature at higher latitudes can shorten the growing season so that some crops have to be abandoned. … [T]he average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries. … Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in India—indeed, through much of Asia, the world’s hungriest continent. … Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an “ice age.”

But, like now, there were still a collection of scientists willing to reconsider the common-knowledge “beliefs” of the time.  For example, Boer and Higuchi (1980) investigated the “belief” that more extreme climate variability accrued as temperatures cooled, concluding that …

25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…

25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…

It has by now become common practice for just about any and every unusual weather occurrence, extreme temperature anomaly,  or seismic event to be somehow, someway linked to the human practice of using energy derived from fossil fuels.   No hurricane, flood, drought, storm, wildfire … is spared from potential anthropogenic implication.

Last week, a named hurricane (Hermine) that ultimately devolved into a tropical storm landed along the Florida coast — the first landfall in 11 years.  As expected, the usual suspects  reflexively blamed the storm on humans.

When a volcano erupts, the headliners are quick to point out that humans have made volcanic eruptions more likely.

When wildfires consume the landscape, human-caused warming is claimed to be fueling them.

In one year, human-caused warming can be said to be a cause of catastrophic drought in Texas.

“2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says”

A few years later, human-caused warming leads to catastrophic flooding in Texas.

“A new study directly links human-caused global warming to the [2015] catastrophic flooding in Texas and Oklahoma this spring.”

Even shifting plates beneath the Earth’s crust (earthquakes) can be creatively connected to human-caused climate change.

Those who may dare to question the link between  humanity’s growing oil, gas, and coal consumption and a weather or  tectonic event are swiftly called “climate deniers,” and the substantive discussion that never happened (and was never going to happen) ends then and there.

In the 1970s, extreme weather events were blamed on global cooling

Interestingly, in the 1970s it was common for severe weather anomalies (for example, the deadly catastrophic drought plodding throughout the continent of Africa) to be linked to the global cooling occurring at that time.  In 1974, NOAA acknowledged that many climate scientists had linked the drought and other extreme weather anomalies to the -0.5°C drop in temperatures that had occurred from the 1940s to 1970s.

NOAA, 1974

“In the Sahelian zone of Africa south of the Sahara, the countries of Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Upper Volta are enduring a drought that in some areas has been going on for more than six years now, following some 40 previous years of abundant monsoon rainfall. And the drought is spreading—eastward into Ehtiopia and

Climate Scientist Blames Drownings On Climate Change – ‘Rip currents more unpredictable’ due to AGW

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-will-make-uk-coastline-more-dangerous-10560138

Can these scumbags get any worse?

From Sky News:

The UK’s coastlines will become even more dangerous because of climate change, an expert has told Sky News.

Two more people died today on Britain’s shores – a man scuba diving in Cornwall and a 17-year-old boy in the waters near Sunderland.

Last week, five young men were drowned at Camber Sands. The weekend before, seven people died in different parts of waters around the UK.

Rip currents – fast moving, narrow channels of water that can drag swimmers out to sea – are not becoming more frequent or more vicious.

But our changing climate is making them more unpredictable, according to Dr Simon Boxall, an oceanographer at the University of Southampton.

Dr Boxall told Sky News: “Climate change means not just more winter storms, but more summer storms as well, so you have an ever moving topography.

“Rip currents need an escape and so they work on the topography of the sea floor.

“Now if you get big storms, the storms can change the topography completely, they can move a sand bar a kilometre overnight. That’s how powerful they are.

“And so because you get these moving sandbars every time you get a big storm, it means predicting where the rip currents are likely to take place becomes very difficult.”

The RNLI have added Camber Sands to its “community life-saving plan”, recognising that a previously unremarkable stretch of beach has become more dangerous. It has also introduced a temporary RNLI lifeguard service.

 

Camber Sands

Speaking on the beach, Darren Lewis, senior lifeguard manager at the RNLI, told Sky News: “Generally, storms happen in the winter so as we approach the summer season, we will see whether things have shifted around and new hazards have presented themselves.

“So it should be always an ongoing process and then you should look to build in the control measures, whether they be lifeguards, whether they be public rescue equipment, signage, that interaction with the public to let them know what’s happening.”

Camber Sands is notable for its strong rip currents.

Breaking waves push water towards land; rip currents form when this water finds a channel to flow quickly back out to sea, between sandbars, for example.

These currents can travel up to two-and-a-half metres per second – faster than any human swimmer.

But they are narrow so can be escaped by

‘Floods are not increasing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘global warming’ link to floods & extreme weather – How does media ‘get away with this?’

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), slammed the linkage of global warming to the recent Louisiana floods and other types of extreme weather. (See: Bill Nye: Climate change is reason for Louisiana floods)

Pielke authored the 2014 book “The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.”  

“Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either,” Pielke Jr. declared on August 23. Pielke rebuked New York Times columnist Paul Krugman for linking floods to climate change.  Krugman blamed “climate change” for ‘a proliferation of disasters like the one in Louisiana.’

“How does Krugman get away with this?” Pielke asked while showcasing this scientific graph.

“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage is sharply down over 70 years,” Pielke explained.

In a message aimed at climate activists and many in the media, Pielke cautioned: “Remember, disasters can happen any time and they suck. But it is also good to understand long-term trends based on data, not hype.”

“In my career I’ve seen the arguments go from: 1- ‘Drought increasing globally’ — To — 2- ‘OK, not globally, but look at THIS one drought.’ I’ll stick with the UN IPCC and the USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program) consensus rather than selected studies. Both of those agree there is no global or U.S. trend though literature is diverse,” Pielke wrote.

Extreme weather is NOT getting worse

Pielke also pointed to the hard scientific data that shows other types of extreme weather are not getting worse and may in fact be improving.

“Is U.S. drought getting worse? No,” Pielke wrote and revealed this EPA graph:

 

Professor Pielke Jr. also noted: “US hurricane landfalls (& their strength) down by ~20% since 1900” and provided this graph.

 

“Recent years have seen record low tornadoes,” Pielke Jr. added with this data from NOAA.

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Related Links:

New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.

Al

Al Gore, climate activists use Louisiana floods to push narrative without evidence of link

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/22/al-gore-climate-activists-use-louisiana-floods-to-/

 – The Washington Times – Monday, August 22, 2016

Few would be surprised if President Obama took aim at climate change during his visit Tuesday to survey the Louisiana flooding, which is why global warming skeptics are already raining on his parade.

The climate blame began in earnest last week with former Vice President Al Gore, who described the deluge as an example of “one of the manifestations of climate change.” Those remarks were followed by a rash of supportive articles.

“Flooding in the South looks a lot like climate change,” said an Aug. 16 headline on an article in The New York Times.

The Green Party of Louisiana issued a statement Friday calling the flooding “further evidence of the global crisis posed by climate change.”

“Until humans make global, sweeping changes to our economic and social systems, we must expect these types of disasters to continue regularly,” said the party. “The Green Party of Louisiana calls for the rapid elimination of the fossil fuel economy.”

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein called Saturday for declaring a “climate state of emergency,” saying disasters such as the Louisiana floods and California wildfires “are going to become day-to-day occurrences.”…

Fact: ‘Louisiana Floods Not Result of Man-Made Climate Change’

http://dailysignal.com/2016/08/17/the-facts-show-louisianas-floods-not-caused-by-man-made-climate-change/?utm_source=TDS_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MorningBell&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTWpka1ptSTRZalZqWmpjdyIsInQiOiJSbjFWWHJVQXpHR2Z3XC9kS3JZSzA1Z2NMQmdLUkorOGRaTm1tWWpRdHllOU9SZTlMOUZWSHBGZ05ORW1qZTFIK096YXUyMFpQOEtzSmJcLzZFem5nMnB6MElYM2U1bWg4dnNrSW95WWpoM1RNPSJ9

But is man-made global warming to blame? Climatologists Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger point to two recent studies that indicate not.

In one study, two researchers at the University of Iowa specializing in hydroscience and engineeringconclude that “over the last 65 years, the stronger storms are not getting stronger, but a larger number of heavy precipitation events have been observed.”

The larger number of precipitation events, however, were not a result of burning of conventional resources of energy such as coal, oil, and natural gas. The study finds that “the climate variability of both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans can exert a large control on the precipitation frequency and magnitude over the contiguous USA.”

In other words, changes in the ocean are the reason for these increases in precipitation.

Another study, published by the American Meteorological Society, analyzes model projections and actual observed trends in heavy precipitation throughout the U.S.

The lead author is Karin van der Wiel of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Van der Wiel and her team concluded “no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record.”

Knappenberger also points to a NOAA study from June 1978, when the media and climate concern centered on the next ice age and global cooling. As heputs it: “Lower Louisiana is a climatologically prime location for massive precipitation amounts.”

What about globally? After all, man-made warming is supposed to be about global warming, right?

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found evidence for increases, decreases, and no trend at all in flood activity or severity. The report says:

In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.

Trends in local events, such as hail and thunderstorms, were also inconclusive.

So whatever your theory on climate change and floods is, the U.N.’s climate change panel has studies to back you up—which suggests a lot of uncertainty in the field.

Here’s the real kicker, though: Even if it were definitively conclusive that man-made carbon dioxide emissions contributed directly to more intense and more frequent storms, the Obama administration’s regulatory climate agenda would be a costly nonsolution…