Fewest US Tornadoes On Record
…Fewest US Forest Fires In Three Decades
…New paper finds natural ocean oscillations control Northern Hemisphere temperatures 15-20 years in advance — Published in Geophysical Research Letters
New paper finds natural ocean oscillations control Northern Hemisphere temperatures 15-20 years in advance
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-finds-natural-ocean.html
A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds the natural North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] controls temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere 15 to 20 years in advance, a lagged effect due to the large thermal inertia of the oceans. The authors find the NAO index can be used to predict Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability and the natural oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 15–20 years in advance. A simple linear model based upon this theory predicted the ‘pause’ of global warming since about 2000 that IPCC models failed to predict, and projects Northern Hemisphere temperatures will “fall slightly” over the 15 years from 2012-2027.
NAO winter index
NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
Jianping Li 1,*, Cheng Sun 1, Fei-Fei Jin 2
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057877
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming–cooling–warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT [Northern Hemisphere Temperature] multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT [Northern Hemisphere Temperature] and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. A NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. [Northern Hemisphere Temperature] NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO weakening that temporarily offsets the [theoretical] anthropogenically induced warming.
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Preempting warmist claims of global warming: Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘In case you’re curious about N. Indian cyclones ‘no trend towards an increase in the number of categories 3–5 cyclones over the last 30 yrs’
…New paper finds SW Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were about the same as today, ~200,000 years ago — Published in Quaternary Research
New paper finds SW Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were about the same as today, ~200,000 years ago
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-finds-sw-pacific-ocean.html
A new paper published in Quaternary Research finds sea surface temperatures in the SW Pacific Ocean were about the same as the present 200,000 years ago. According to the authors, “Statistical results suggest that annual averages of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) at ~ 197,000 [years ago] were not significantly different from and ~ 1.2 higher than at present, respectively.”The authors also find sea levels in the SW Pacific were up to ~10 meters [~32 feet] higher than the present during the last interglacial ~120,000 years ago.
Horizontal axis is thousands of years before the present
MIS 7 interglacial sea-surface temperature and salinity reconstructions from a southwestern subtropical Pacific coral
Ryuji Asamia, b, , ,
Yasufumi Iryuc, d,
Kimio Hanawae,
Takashi Miwad,
Peter Holdenf,
Ryuichi Shinjob,
Gustav Paulayg
a Trans-disciplinary Research Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan
b Faculty of Science, Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan
c Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan
d Institute of Geology and Paleontology, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan
e Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan
f Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Bldg 61, Mills Road, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia
g Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
We generated a 5.5-yr snapshot of biweekly-to-monthly resolved time series of carbon and oxygen isotope composition (δ13C and δ18O) and Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca from annually banded aragonite skeleton of a ~ 197 ka pristine Porites coral collected at Niue Island (19°00′S, 169°50′W) in the southwestern subtropical Pacific Ocean. This report is the first of a high-resolution coral-based paleoclimate archive during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 interglacial. Statistical results suggest that annual averages of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) at ~ 197 ka were not significantly different from and ~ 1.2 higher than at present, respectively. Monthly mean variations showed increased SSS at ~ 197 ka that was higher (1.4–1.9 relative to today) in the austral summer than in the austral winter. Monthly SST and SSS anomalies at …
Analysis: Gross Scientific Negligence – IPCC Ignored Huge Body Of Peer-Reviewed Literature Showing Sun’s Clear Impact
Gross Scientific Negligence – IPCC Ignored Huge Body Of Peer-Reviewed Literature Showing Sun’s Clear Impact
Proven by thousands of temperature datasets, the earth’s climate fluctuated cyclically in the past, and there’s an overwhelming body of evidence showing a close correlation with solar activity and other powerful natural factors. If the IPCC had truly examined past temperature developments and compared them to solar data, they’d have seen there is something remarkable there.
Yet in the IPCC AR5, Working Group 1 takes only a cursory look at solar activity and its possible impacts on climate in IPCC AR5 before simply dismissing the sun altogether. The Earth’s sole supplier of energy, the sun, and all its dynamism, in fact gets only a couple of pages in a 2200-page report, about 0.1%. That alone is a monumental scandal. It’s incompetence and negligence on the grandest of scales.
This will certainly go down in the books as one of the greatest scientific debacles of human history.
If the IPCC had directed the same energy and resources to make the sun and natural factors the culprit for climate change as it has with CO2, they’d certainly have a far more convincing case today,and many of the questions it claims are still open would be closed. But obviously the IPCC’s sole intent is to frame mankind and its CO2 emissions as the culprit for something that stopped happening 16 years ago. This is fraud, not science.
The IPCC took the same negligent approach with sea levels: dismissing non-alarmist science in favor of nutty, doomsday scenarios.
I spent half a day searching for papers that provide evidence of a significant impact on climate by the sun and natural factors, and another full day sorting through them. I limited the scope of the search to 2008 – 2012, i.e. papers since the last IPCC report. There are many more papers of course prior to 2008.
What follows is a list of papers I found in just a few hours that the IPCC should have taken a much closer look at instead of just dismissing. The list of course is not complete.
An excellent resource that really speeded things up was the site:
Popular Technology.net
Popular technology is actually a list of 1100 papers that the IPCC wishes did not exist.
For some of the papers I’ve included links to additional information and some important quotes. Unfortunately I was …
Oh No! A new Mayan Calendar Deadline! ‘2047 Is The New 2012!’ AP: ‘Temperatures Go Off the Charts Around 2047’ — ‘Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently’ — ‘And eventually the whole world in 2047’
…New paper finds models unable to reproduce natural atmospheric oscillations which control climate — ‘A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs the climate over the past 6,000 years and finds climate models were not able to reproduce the changes in European climate during during the mid-Holocene Climate Optimum, which was warmer than present-day climate’
New paper finds models unable to reproduce natural atmospheric oscillations which control climate
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-finds-models-unable-to.html
A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs the climate over the past 6,000 years and finds climate models were not able to reproduce the changes in European climate during during the mid-Holocene Climate Optimum, which was warmer than present-day climate. In particular, the authors find the models are unable to reproduce the atmospheric circulations of the Arctic Oscillation [AO] and the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] of key importance to European & global climate, and in fact, simulated changes opposite to those found in the climate proxy reconstruction. The authors find “The poor representation of [natural] changes in Mid-Holocene atmospheric circulation in models is consistent with similar model deficiencies found [during the present climate], and may be important in understanding why Europe has recently been warming faster than predicted”The authors determine the primary failing of climate model simulations is an over-reliance and exaggeration of radiative forcing of climate, instead of an emphasis on natural atmospheric and oceanic oscillations and circulatory patterns. The primary obsession of the IPCC is also a over-simplification, exaggeration, and over-reliance that climate is controlled by radiative forcing forcing alone.
Note: the primary influence of the solar variation appears to be via influence of natural atmospheric and oceanic oscillations and circulatory patterns, rather than direct radiative forcing.
Excerpts:
Many of the recent and historical periods of climatic warming in Europe have been explained by changes in atmospheric circulation. For instance, much of the warming that occurred in the late 20th Century in Europe has been attributed to the increased number of winters with a high index AO/NAO (Hurrell, 1995; Visbeck et al., 2001). High index AO/NAO conditions are also thought to have occurred during the Medieval 15 Climate Anomaly, providing a dynamic explanation for the winter warmth experienced over Europe at this time (Trouet et al., 2009). Similarly in summer, the increased occurrence of heat waves in recent years has been shown to be the result of anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with blocking anticyclones (Kysely and Huth, 2006). This pattern has also been shown to underlie summer warming on longer timescales 20 in the late Holocene (Della-Marta et al., 2007; Trouet et al., 2012; Yiou et al., 2012).
Changes in atmospheric circulation have a significant influence on European climate (Sepp and Jaagus, 2002; van Ulden and van Oldenborgh, 2006; Hoy …
New paper claims over 100% of all man-made CO2 has to be removed from atmosphere to have a ‘safe’ climate — Published today in Geophysical Research Letters
New paper claims over 100% of all man-made CO2 has to be removed from atmosphere to have a “safe” climate
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-claims-over-100-of-all-man.html
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds on the basis of highly-flawed carbon cycle and climate models that even if all human emissions of CO2 were to cease, and a non-existent scheme devised to suck 115%-180% of all man-made CO2 emissions out of the atmosphere, it would require 1000 years for CO2 to return to a “safe” level. The paper appears to be the IPCC AR5 geo-engineering claim on steroids.
IPCC AR5: “CO2-induced warming is projected to remain approximately constant for many centuries following a complete cessation of emission. A large fraction of climate change is thus irreversible on a human timescale, except if net anthropogenic CO2 emissions were strongly negative over a sustained period.”
In other words, even if all the world ran on carbon-free energy and deforestation ceased, the only way of lowering temperatures would be to devise a scheme for sucking hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, 115%-180% of that which was ever produced by man, over the next 1000 years.In essence, it is claimed that we’re doomed no matter what.
Fortunately, any small effect of CO2 on the climate is overwhelmed by natural variability, thus nature will do what it wants regardless of man’s attempts to control the weather with the harmless, essential, trace gas CO2. And even if you think CO2 has a significant climate effect, the lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is only about 14 years, not the hundreds claimed by the highly flawed IPCC Bern model.
Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: can a Holocene-like climate be restored?Andrew. H. MacDougall*DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057467Abstract: Most climate modelling studies of future climate have focused on the affects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long-term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, after carbon emissions cease there may be a desire to return to a “safe” CO2 concentration within this millennium. Realistically this implies artificially removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. In this study experiments are conducted using the University of Victoria Earth system climate model forced with novel future scenarios to explore the reversibility of climate warming as a response to a gradual return to pre-industrial radiative forcing. Due to hysteresis in the permafrost carbon pool the quantity of carbon that must be …