According to 1990 IPCC Report, warming since 1990 is still within natural variability
According to 1990 IPCC Report, warming since 1990 is still within natural variability
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/04/according-to-1990-ipcc-report-warming.html
According to the 1990 IPCC Report, an additional 0.5C global warming would need to be observed before natural variability could be distinguished with high confidence from an “enhanced greenhouse effect” due to man-made emissions. However, as an article today at Reason.com points out, “…enhanced greenhouse warming above the noise of natural climate variability would not yet have crossed over the benchmark (+0.5°C) set by the IPCC back in 1990. Interesting.” Satellite data indicates only ~0.2C warming since 1990, considerably short of the 0.5C threshold the IPCC set for itself in 1990 to determine whether additional global warming was within natural variability. The activist-IPCC of today conveniently discarded these goalposts, and unjustifiably claims (without any statistical basis) 95% confidence that “most” global warming since 1950 is man-made. RSS satellite data show only 0.2C global warming since 1990, considerably short of the 1990 IPCC threshold of an additional 0.5C warming to detect an anthropogenic “enhanced greenhouse effect” Warming since the beginning of the HADCRU3 global temperature record in 1850 is only ~0.8C, short of the 1990 IPCC threshold [1C since the late 19th century] to detect an anthropogenic “enhanced greenhouse effect” Detection of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming: What the IPCC Said Back In 1990 Changing goal posts or better science? Ronald Bailey|Apr. 8, 2015 11:03 am Reason.com DreamstimeMany commentators in response to my article last week, “What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?,” asserted that the climate models had failed in their predictions with regard to trends in hurricanes (cyclones), tornadoes, and droughts. So I did an admittedly quick scan of all five of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s physical sciences reports to see what they actually said. As far as I can tell, all of the reports admit that the observational data do not definitively show any trends with regard to those particular aspects of climate. With regard to model outputs concerning those trends, the IPCC reports characterize them using tentative terminology such as “encouraging” back in 1990 and “medium evidence” and “medium agreement” in matching observational trends in the most recent report. In general, the models are not predicting a worsening trend in hurricanes, tornadoes, and droughts, at least in the short run. In any case, I came across the chapter, “Detection of the Greenhouse Gas Effect in the Observations” in the …