Statistically, it’s pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,’ Brown said.
‘Hiatus periods of 11 years or longer are more likely to occur under a middle-of-the-road scenario.’
Under the IPCC’s middle-of-the-road scenario, there was a 70 per cent likelihood that at least one hiatus lasting 11 years or longer would occur between 1993 and 2050, Brown said.
‘That matches up well with what we’re seeing.’
There’s no guarantee, however, that this rate of warming will remain steady in coming years, Li stressed.
‘Our analysis clearly shows that we shouldn’t expect the observed rates of warming to be constant. They can and do change.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html#ixzz3YFlZTdja
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