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Observations Show No Warming Trend, Mostly Stable Glaciers In The Himalayas…Contradicting IPCC’s ‘Fake News’


Observations Show No Warming Trend, Mostly Stable Glaciers In The Himalayas…Contradicting IPCC’s ‘Fake News’

By Kenneth Richard 

IPCC Intentionally Uses Catastrophic Non-Science To Incite Policy Action “The most striking feature of the present reconstruction is the absence of any warming trend in the 20th century” — Yadav et al., 1997 Bhattacharyya and Chaudhary, 2003 In 2007, IPCC Claimed The Himalayan Region Has Been Warming So Rapidly Its Glaciers Would ‘Disappear’ By 2035 IPCC (2007) “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).” IPCC’s Fake Glacier Melt Claim Came From Activists, Intentionally Put In To Spur Policymakers To Action David Rose, UK Daily Mail “The claim that Himalayan glaciers are set to disappear by 2035 rests on two 1999 magazine [phone] interviews with glaciologist Syed Hasnain, which were then recycled without any further investigation in a 2005 report by the environmental [activist] group WWF. It was this report that Dr Lal and his team cited as their source.” 88% Of Himalayan Glaciers Are Stable Or Advancing — With Overall Negligible Change (0.2%) Since 2000 Bahuguna et al., 2014 (Himalayan Glaciers) “Two thousand and eighteen glaciers representing climatically diverse terrains in the Himalaya were mapped and monitored [between 2000-2010]. It includes glaciers of Karakoram, Himachal, Zanskar, Uttarakhand, Nepal and Sikkim regions. Among these, 1752 glaciers (86.8%) were observed having stable fronts (no change in the snout position and area of ablation zone), 248 (12.3%) exhibited retreat and 18 (0.9%) of them exhibited advancement of snout. The net loss in 10,250.68 sq. km area of the 2018 glaciers put together was found to be 20.94 sq. km or 0.2%.” Only 4 Gt Per Year Of ‘High Mountain Asia’ Glacier Loss For 2003-2010 Jacob et al., 2012 (‘High Mountains of Asia’) “The GIC [global glaciers and ice caps excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets] rate for 2003–2010 is about 30 per cent smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period. The high mountains of Asia [Himalayan Region], in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates.” [A 4 Gt mass loss per year is the sea level rise equivalent of 0.01 mm per year, or about one tenth of one centimeter per century.] Contrary To IPCC Claims, There Has Been No Recent Himalayan Warming Thapa et al., 2015 (Nepal Himalaya) “[T]emperature in Central Asia and northern Hemisphere revert back towards cooling trends in the late twentieth century. Thus looking at all the records we observed that our present study is following patterns of temperature variations observed in surrounding regions.” Krusic et al., 2015 (Himalaya, Bhutan) “At multidecadal to multicentennial timescales, summer temperatures during much of the fifteenth to eighteenth centuries were below the calibration period average, containing deep [cooling] departures that coincide with minima in solar energy output [Usoskin et al., 2002, 2003]. The warmest period occurs within the most recent decade, 2004–2013 C.E.; however, this period is not statistically unprecedented compared with earlier warm periods, e.g., in the 1650s and late fourteenth century.” Yadav, 2009 (Western Himalaya) “The decreasing temperature trend in late 20th century is consistent with trends noted in Nepal (Cook et al. 2003), Tibet (Briffa et al. 2001) and Central Asia (Briffa et al. 2001). The cooling trend in late 20th century mean temperature has been found to be due to cooling trend noted in minimum temperature during the second half of the 20th century in semi-arid western Himalaya.” Zafar et al., 2016 (Pakistan, Karakorum-Himalaya) Sano et al., 2005 (Nepal) “March–September temperature was reconstructed for the past 249 years, which shows a warming trend from 1750s until approximately 1790, followed by cooling until 1810, then by a gradual warming trend extending to 1950, and a notable cold period continuing up to the present. No evidence of a consistent warming trend over the last century or two commonly appearing in higher latitudes was found in the present reconstruction” Li et al., 2011 (Southwest China) Fan et al, 2009 (Hengduan Mountains, South China) Yadav and Singh, 2002 (Western Himalaya) “The 1945–1974 period was the warmest 30-yr mean period of the 20th century. However, this warming, in the context of the past four centuries, appears well within the range of normal limits. The 30-yr mean temperature anomaly for 1662–1691 (0.19°C) exceeds in magnitude (although not significantly, p = 0.23) the 1945–1974 mean (0.05°C).” Himalayan Region 1-2°C Warmer During Medieval Warm Period “[T]he Caucasus Mountains are technically considered to be a continuation of the Himalayas” Solomina et al., 2016 (Caucasus Mountains) “The climate was warmer and glaciers were likely receding in the beginning of the past millennium CE (the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”). … In this pass, remains of wood radiocarbon dated to 700 ± 80 BP (1180–1420 CE) were buried in a 1.5-m-thick layer of alluvium (Kaplin et al., 1971; Kotlyakov et al., 1973). Currently, the upper tree limit is located 800–900 m below this elevation. … According to indirect estimates based on pollen analyses, the upper tree limit in the “Arkhyz” period was 200–300 m higher than today (Tushinsky, Turmanina, 1979). The remains of ancient buildings and roads were also found in the Klukhorsky pass at an elevation of 2781 a.s.l. [above sea level] (Tushinsky et al., 1966), and the glacier was still present at this elevation in the mid 20th century. … [I]n Central and East Transcaucasia, there are artificial terraces at elevations where agriculture is not currently possible and that there are remnants of forests in places where forests have not grown since the 16th century CE.” “Turmanina (1988), based on pollen analysis, suggested that, in the Elbrus area, the climate during the “Arkhyz” time was dryer and warmer than in the late 20th century by 1–2 °C. … Solomina et al. (2014) determined the Medieval warming in the Caucasus to be approximately 1 °C warmer than the mean of the past 4500 years. According to the Karakyol palynological and geochemical reconstructions, the warm period was long and lasted for five centuries. Considering the suggestion of Turmanina (1988) that it was also less humid, the likelihood that many glaciers, especially those located at relatively low elevation, disappeared is very high. … The maximum glacier extent in the past millennium was reached before 1598 CE. The advance of the 17th century CE, roughly corresponding to the Maunder Minimum, is recorded at Tsey Glacier. … General glacier retreat started in the late 1840s CE and four to five minor readvances occurred in the 1860s–1880s CE. In the 20th century CE, the continued retreat was interrupted by small readvances in the 1910s, 1920s and 1970s–1980s.”
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