By Paul Homewood
Pronouncements of its death were premature – the pause has never gone away!
Despite temperatures peaking in February, just above the 1998 peak, satellite measurements show that temperature trends have only risen by a statistically insignificant 0.002C/year since 1998.
Pause deniers always object to comparisons with 1998. However, as we are now comparing two massive El Nino years, that objection no longer carries any weight.
That is not all. The strong La Nina event in 1999/2000 effectively cancelled out the 1998 El Nino, as far as trends go, as the Met Office explained in their 2013 paper, “The recent pause in global warming: What are the potential causes”:
The start of the current pause is difficult to determine precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El Niño in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Niña event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure 1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused.
It remains to be seen whether we get a similar La Nina in the next 12 months, but even a return to average temperatures will see the above trend drop close to zero.
One question that is often raised is why temperatures are still close to record levels, even though El Nino conditions have largely disappeared. The answer is that there is always a time lag between ENSO changes, and the resultant impact on atmospheric temperatures, generally agreed to be between three and six months.
Below is a chart showing the timing of ENSO and temperature changes between January 1997 and December 1999:
The MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) shows how the El Nino peaked in September 1997, whilst RSS temperatures did not peak until the following April.. Similarly, the subsequent La Nina bottomed out in February 1999, with temperatures not following suit until June 1999.
A similar chart for this year shows a five month between lag between the two peaks. It seems likely that the recent transition towards neutral ENSO conditions won’t be reflected in atmospheric temperatures until the autumn. Beyond that, it is crystal ball time!
One more thing to note. The …
Challenging AGW on the Eve of Destruction
Guest essay by Uli Weber, Geophysicist, Germany
Since the G7-summit at Elmau Castle (2015) and the climate summit COP21 in Paris (2015) the declared political aim of all governments of the world is a global decarbonisation until the year 2100 to save our planet from anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The AGW-paradigm is allegedly supported by 97% of all climate scientists worldwide and global decarbonisation has even been recommended by religious leaders.
And recently, on the 22nd of April 2016, representatives from about 170 nations officially signed the Paris Climate Convention for global decarbonisation at the United Nations in New York.…
Christopher Smith writes in WUWT Tips and Notes:
Dr Jarrod Gilbert: Why climate denial should be a criminal offence
5:00 AM Tuesday Jul 26, 2016
New Zealand Social Scientist Dr Jarrod Gilbert is calling for the Crime of Climate Change Denial to be adopted.
There is no greater crime being perpetuated on future generations than that committed by those who deny climate change. The scientific consensus is so overwhelming that to argue against it is to perpetuate a dangerous fraud. Denial has become a yardstick by which intelligence can be tested. The term climate sceptic is now interchangeable with the term mindless fool.
Since the 1960s, it has been known that heat-trapping gasses were increasing in the earth’s atmosphere, but no one knew to what effect. In 1979, a study found “no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible”. Since then scientists have been seeking to prove it, and the results are in.
Meta studies show that 97 per cent of published climate scientists agree that global warming is occurring and that it is caused by human activities. The American Association for the Advancement of Science compared it to the consensus linking smoking to cancer. The debate is over, yet doubt continues.
Using the “meta studies” of 97% consensus as his applicable research, this truly original thinker, investigator, capable observer both impartial and unbiased, has unleashed his completely reverent. timely and accurate assessment of his media fed diet of Apocalyptic climate change. Heaven forbid Nasa would ever make a mistake, falsify data or misrepresent and adjust 176 years of impartial data observations to suit its own data modelling efforts.
Obama Travel Cost Taxpayers over $82 million to Date
(Washington DC)—Judicial Watch announced today that it has obtained records from the U.S. Secret Serviceand the Department of the Air Force detailing the costs of Obama’s trip to attend the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. Secret Service charges for Obama and his staff to attend the Conference cost taxpayers $1,324,171.60. Flight expenses cost $1,652,124.60, bringing the total expenditure for the conference to at least $2,976,296.20. To date, Obama’s known travel expenses total $82,606,703.13
Judicial Watch filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for these documents on January 6, 2016. The records were released in response to a FOIA lawsuit filed on May 6, 2016, (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Homeland Security (No. 1:16-cv-00863)).
The Secret Service expense report is as follows:
- $82,991.60 was spent on air and rail travel.
- $706,065 was spent on Parisian hotels.
- $531,598 for rental vehicles.
- $10,820 in overtime pay was run up.
- Cell phones were rented for $2,562.
- Cell phone usage cost $679.
- A copier was rented for $652.
- $624 in “miscellaneous” expenses.
The Secret Service detail stayed in a number of Parisian hotels. The most money was spent at the InterContinental Paris Le Grand, a historic hotel built in 1862 that is called a “luxury” hotel that “defines historic grandeur,” according to its website. Accommodations were also booked at the Hilton Astor, Marriott Ambassador, Marriott Rive Gauche, and Mercure Tour Eiffel.
According to Air Force documents two planes were used for the trip to Paris, both Air Force One and a C-32A (which is generally used by either the secretary of state or the first lady):
- Air Force One travelled a total of 14.4 hours @ $180,118 per hour for a total of $1,404,927.00.
- The C-32A travelled 15.6 hours @ $15,846 per hour for a total of $247,197.60.
Other expenses for additional cabinet members’ travel and catering, Secret Service meals, meeting rooms, etc. are not included in these totals.
The controversial Paris Climate Conference, also known as COP21, spanned from November 30, 2015, to December 12, 2015. Travel to the conferencereportedly burned 300,000 tons of carbon dioxide, seemingly defeating the purpose of the meeting of world leaders. Critics also contend President Obama’s executive action implementing the Paris Climate Agreement circumvents the constitutional requirement that treaties become law only after ratification by the U.S. Senate.
“Obama’s Paris …