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‘Why Climate Change Won’t Matter in 20 Years’ – ‘The perilous business of predicting the future’

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http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428780/climate-change-predictions

Why Climate Change Won’t Matter in 20 Years
Secretary Kerry speaks at the climate conference in Paris.

by JOSH GELERNTER
December 18, 2015 7:11 PM

The perilous business of predicting the future. Last week, powerful men from all over the world finished negotiating a new climate deal — the “Paris Agreement.” France’s foreign minister, the host of the “COP21” climate conference, called the plan an “historic turning point” in the battle against global warming. Our representative, John Kerry, called it “a victory for the planet.” The deal sets various goals for 2023, and for 2050 through 2100. It is absurd to think that the world’s foreign ministers can intelligently discuss what the world’s climate, industry, transportation, or energy markets will look like in 2023 — much less 2050 or 2100. Consider that 2023 is eight years from now. Eight years ago, did anyone at COP21 know Uber was coming? Did any of those foreign ministers know how popular drones would become? That new supersonic passenger planes would be in development? That four different private companies would be launching space flights? That two companies would be going forward with tests of “hyper-loop” transportation?

Now: you tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it’s even worth thinking about. Our [emissions] models just carry the present into the future. They’re bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives it a moment’s thought knows it.


In 1900, the John Kerrys of the world might have been talking about global horse-manure accords, but a few bright-eyed non-bureaucrats had an idea of the direction transport was moving:

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428780/climate-change-predictions

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428780/climate-change-predictions

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428780/climate-change-predictions

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