Study: Cold 17.36 Times More Hazardous to Mankind Than Heat

A paper in a recent edition of the Lancet attempts to determine what percentage of deaths in thirteen different countries – Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the UK and the USA – are associated with changes in the weather.

What will perhaps be most interesting to the average reader is the disparity in the numbers of deaths caused (according to the authors’ calculations and on the assumption that the relationship is indeed a causative one) by heat and cold. The latter is by far the worse villain of the piece, accounting for 7.29 of the 7.71 percent of deaths allegedly caused by ambient temperature, that is to say 5,411,017 of the 5,722,763 deaths cause by temperature variation, leaving heat a cause of “only” 311,746 deaths. To put it another way, cold is in current circumstances 17.36 times more hazardous to mankind than heat.…

The hidden but important UN IPCC foundation for Obama’s ‘Clean Power Plan’

Obama’s sweeping Clean Power Plan rests on a finding in Chapter 10 of  Working Group I of the IPCC’s latest report, AR5 — something important and little known. See page 884, emphasis added…

“We conclude, consistent with Hegerl et al. (2007b) {i.e., chapter 9 of AR4}, that more than half of the observed increase in GMST {global mean surface temperature} from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in GHG {greenhouse gas} concentrations.”

AR4’s statement about the effect of GHGs was similar (although put in its Summary for Policy-makers, not page 884): “Most of the observed increase is global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

In both AR4 and AR5 the IPCC defines “Very likely” as having a “likelihood of the occurrence/outcome” at “>90% probability”. That’s below the 95% standard usually used in both science research and making of vital public policy decisions (e.g., by the EPA and FDA).…

Antarctic Glaciers Were Retreating In The 19thC

By Paul Homewood


We are supposed to believe that Antarctic glaciers have only recently started to recede.

Back in 1932, they knew that the process had begun in the 19thC.


Sir James Ross undertook his expeditions to the Antarctic in the 1840’s.

Interestingly, Bernacchi accompanied Scott on the 1901-04 Antarctic expedition. and Scott was best man at his colleague’s wedding in 1906. Bernacchi was invited to go on Scott’s ill fated second expedition, but declined due to family commitments.

Mid-August, and Scotland’s winter snow STILL hasn’t melted

Mid-August, and Scotland’s winter snow STILL hasn’t melted

“Is this how glaciers get started?” asks reader. A stunning world of snow tunnels, caves and bridges towering higher than a double-decker buses still lingers after a cold summer in the Cairngorms National Park. The Scottish mountains have seen a growing number of snow patches remaining since 2007, but more snow has lingered this summer than in at least 20 years. The results are these vast caverns, sometimes so big that people can walk underneath. Back in April, Glencoe ski resort received a late dump of around 70cm of fresh snow prompting some to claim that, at the time, it offered the “best powder on the planet”. See photos: Thanks to George Martinez, Adoni, Dawn Horn and Kurt Strom for these links “Hmmm,” says Dawn. “Is this how glaciers get started?” The post Mid-August, and Scotland’s winter snow STILL hasn’t melted appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzen’s Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot

New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzen’s Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot

As part of a DOE grant we are testing climate models against satellite observations, particularly regarding the missing “hotspot” in the tropics, that is, the expected region of enhanced warming in the tropical mid- and upper troposphere as the surface warms. Since 1979 (the satellite period of record), it appears that warming in those upper layers has been almost non-existent, despite some surface warming and increases in low-level humidity. For years I have claimed that the missing hotspot could be evidence of neutral or even negative water vapor feedback, which would also help explain weaker than expected surface warming. Climate modelers are all but certain that water vapor feedback is positive. I have discussed elsewhere (e.g. here) how that might not be the case, even as lower atmospheric water vapor increases, and it’s related to how precipitation efficiency might change with warming leading to drying of the troposphere above the boundary layer. This is also part of Lindzen’s “Iris Effect”. While water vapor at the lowest altitudes over the ocean is strongly tied to surface temperature, free-tropospheric humidity is controlled by precipitation microphysics, and we little information on how that changes with warming. So, I’ll get right to the subject of this post. We have analyzed 11 years of water vapor channel (183.3 GHz) data from the AMSU-B instrument on the NOAA-18 satellite, and compared it to the mid-tropospheric temperature data from AMSU channel 5 (the “MT” channel). Specifically, we computed monthly gridpoint anomalies in all channels over the 11 year period, and regressed the 183.3 GHz brightness temperature (Tb) anomalies against the channel 5 Tb anomalies. This should give information on how much the free troposphere moistens or dries when it changes temperature. The following image shows the gridpoint regression coefficients for the monthly anomalies during June 2005 through May 2015: Fig. 1. Gridpoint regression coefficients between the NOAA-18 AMSU-b 183.3 GHz channels Tb and AMSU-A channel 5 Tb during June 2005 through May 2015. Ch. 18 is 183.3+/-1 GHz, generally peaking in the upper troposphere; ch. 19 is 183.3+/-3 GHz peaking in the upper-mid troposphere, and ch. 20 is 183.3 +/-7 GHz peaking in the lower mid-troposphere. Yellow to red colors are where absolute humidity decreases with warming; green is humidity increasing to roughly maintain constant RH, and blue is where humidity increases …