Excuse #52 for ‘the pause’ in global warming – natural climate variability as secular trends

Excuse #52 for ‘the pause’ in global warming – natural climate variability as secular trends

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/11/excuse-52-for-the-pause-in-global-warming-natural-climate-variability-as-secular-trends

Earlier we added this to the list, now here is the description of the excuse. Basically what they are saying is that natural climate variability has overtaken the posited powerful effects of CO2 on climate. From the EU’s JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE Last decade’s slow-down in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly: A hiatus […]

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WATCH: Paul McCartney Wants You To Take the Meat Free Monday Pledge

WATCH: Paul McCartney Wants You To Take the Meat Free Monday Pledge

http://www.ecorazzi.com/2014/09/11/watch-paul-mccartney-wants-you-to-take-the-meat-free-monday-pledge/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=watch-paul-mccartney-wants-you-to-take-the-meat-free-monday-pledge

Former Beatle and famous vegetarian Paul McCartney is asking us to ‘come together’ to take the Meat Free Monday Climate Pledge. Read MoreThe post WATCH: Paul McCartney Wants You To Take the Meat Free Monday Pledge appeared first on Ecorazzi.

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New study finds drought 1100 years ago in southwest US was much more severe & extreme than any drought since – Published in PNAS

Paper finds drought 1100 years ago in southwest US was much more severe & extreme than any drought since

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/paper-finds-drought-1100-years-ago-in.html

A paper published in PNAS reconstructs droughts of the southwest US over the past 1,200 years and finds the natural drought ~ 1,100 years ago [during the low-CO2 Medieval Warm Period ~1,300 to ~900 years ago] was far more severe and longer lasting than any droughts since. 

The paper also reconstructs solar activity and finds similar very high levels during the Medieval Warm Period as during the second half of the 20th century. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period are also found to be almost the same as at the end of the 20th century. 

Fig. 2.

Global, hemispheric, and regional proxy and model data documenting medieval period conditions.A Solar irradiance (69),B two estimates of Northern Hemisphere land temperatures, departures from 1850–1995 (32), C ECHO-G (60) modeled average annual temperature for 34°–40° N, 104°–124° W, and departures from 1890–1990,D reconstructed Colorado Plateau mean maximum temperatures (13),E reconstructed water year streamflow, Colorado River at Lees Ferry (41) and Sacramento Four Rivers index flow (40), percent of average based on AD 901–1977, and F reconstructed Southwest Drought Area Index (5). All series except (A) were smoothed with a 20-year spline. Light Shading indicates medieval period, Dark Shading indicates mid-1100s period.

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Connie A. Woodhousea,b,1, 
David M. Mekob, 
Glen M. MacDonaldc, 
Dave W. Stahled, and 
Edward R. Cooke

Author Affiliations

Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved December 11, 2009 (received for review September 28, 2009)

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Abstract

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought …

Christopher Monckton in Australia on climate change tour

Christopher Monckton in Australia for a low key Visit

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2014/09/christopher-monckton-in-australia-for.html

Christopher Monckton in Australia for a low key Visit – one-on-one media interviews welcome.Announcement – Loyal Visit to AustraliaChristopher Walter Monckton, the Third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley; Lord Monckton for short; Christopher to his friends all over the world, has landed in Australia for a Loyal Visit.Lord Monckton is in Australia for a low key (in terms of public presentations) visit, meeting up for private functions, to meet some politicians and for some party faithful political rallies and to catch up with friends across NSW, VIC, SA & QLD. He hopes to bring people up to date on how Australia is now viewed around the world following the repeal of the Carbon Tax.In addition he wants to warn Australians of the UN plans in Paris in 2015 (or before) for a Global Bureaucracy Managed Climate Agreement. This UN plan for Paris, will amount to a world government along the lines of the unelected, unaccountable EU Commissars who run Europe, where Australia and other signatories will irreversibly sign away some key elements of our nation’s sovereignty on the pretext of saving the planet from global warming which as you can see above stopped some 18 years ago.See HERE for Alan Jones interview Sept 10th 2014See HERE for Andrew Bolt and Steve Price interview Sept 9th 2014Contact Chris Dawson on 0409 805 425 for information and media interviews.…

New Attempt To Claim More Extreme Weather Not Supported By Data

New Attempt To Claim More Extreme Weather Not Supported By Data

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/09/09/new-attempt-to-claim-more-extreme-weather-not-supported-by-data

By Paul Homewood  
 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11084066/Winter-weather-is-growing-more-extreme-say-scientists.html
 
The Telegraph carry a report on the latest piece of work from Phil Jones and co. I have not tracked down the original paper yet, but this is what the Telegraph have to say:
 
Britons should brace themselves for more extreme winters as weather conditions become more volatile, scientists have warned.
A study of seasonal records dating back to 1899 found that while most seasons have not changed dramatically, winter has become much more unpredictable.
The results suggest the idea of a typical British winter is increasingly becoming a myth, with wide swings from mild but stormy conditions like those which hit the UK this year to extremely cold temperatures and snow in another year becoming more common.
Researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA), University of Sheffield and the Met Office found that seven out of the 10 most extreme winter conditions over the last 115 years have occurred in the last decade.
Professor Phil Jones, from the University of East Anglia’s climatic research unit, said: “This indicates that British winters have become increasingly unsettled.
If this trend continues, we can expect more volatile UK winter weather in decades to come.
Winter conditions are commonly defined using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a system of barometric pressure variations which indicates the strength of westerly winds approaching the UK.
When westerly winds are strong, Britain experiences mild, wet and often stormy weather – like last winter.
Weaker or reverse airflow typically brings cold, snowy weather, such as that experienced in 2009/10 and 2010/11.
The variations were particularly noticeable in early winter.
Mr Jones said: “When we look at the month of December in particular, our data shows that over the last 115 years, three out of five all-time record high NAO values and two out of five record lows took place in the last decade.”
Professor Edward Hanna, from the University of Sheffield’s department of geography, said it was too soon to say whether the increased volatility is linked to global warming.
But the study, published in the International Journal Of Climatology, states that it was extreme unlikely the clustering of extreme conditions had happened by chance.
The trend could be due to random fluctuations in the climate system but could equally be due to factors including changing pressure and weather systems over …

Analysis: Opinions of Climate Change: Related to Dependency on Government Money?

Opinions of Climate Change: Related to Dependency on Government Money?

http://www.cato.org/blog/opinions-climate-change-related-dependency-government-money

Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”
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In our post last week titled “Climate Alarmism: When is this Bozo Going Down?” we described how new research increasingly casts doubt on the validity of climate models and their projections of future climate change.  It is increasing clear that climate models simply predict too much warming from human greenhouse gas emissions. 
But the scientific community, or at least that part of it which makes its living off climate alarm, is slow to accept this.
Who can blame these folks?  More money flows from the government into universities (or government labs) to study the effects of climate change if we all agree that human greenhouse gas emissions are leading to climate change of a dangerous magnitude.
So it is left to the emeritus or retired profs to lay bare the truth.
A fine example of this can be found in a recent article in the New York Times’ DotEarth blog run by ex-Times science reporter Andy Revkin. In his story looking into the implications of new scientific findings concerning the potential impacts of ocean circulation variability on our understanding of the behavior the global average surface history (parts of which we described in our last post), Revkin interviewed four prominent climate researchers.  The level of confidence that each showed in the mainstream (climate model-driven) global warming meme (despite this new research suggesting that something may be rotten in the state of Denmark) appears proportional to how much professional advancement still lies ahead.

Josh Willis’ (a young scientist from the government’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory) views on climate change seemed unshaken by the new research:
In regards to your question, if you mean how robust is the “slowdown” in global surface warming, the answer is it just probably just barely statistically significant. If you are wondering whether is it meaningful in terms of the public discourse about climate change, I would say the answer is no. The basic story of human caused global warming and its coming impacts is still the same: humans are causing it and the future will …