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Day: May 26, 2014

WSJ: The Myth of the Climate Change ‘97%’ – What is the origin of the false belief that almost all scientists agree about global warming?

WSJ: The Myth of the Climate Change ‘97%’; What is the origin of the false belief that almost all scientists agree about global warming?

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/wsj-myth-of-climate-change-97-what-is.html

The Myth of the Climate Change ‘97%’

What is the origin of the false belief—constantly repeated—that almost all scientists agree about global warming?By JOSEPH BAST And ROY SPENCER

May 26, 2014 7:13 p.m. ET    THE WALL STREET JOURNALLast week Secretary of State John Kerry warned graduating students at Boston College of the “crippling consequences” of climate change. “Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists,” he added, “tell us this is urgent.”Where did Mr. Kerry get the 97% figure? Perhaps from his boss, President Obama, who tweeted on May 16 that “Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.” Or maybe from NASA, which posted (in more measured language) on its website, “Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities.”Yet the assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction. The so-called consensus comes from a handful of surveys and abstract-counting exercises that have been contradicted by more reliable research.One frequently cited source for the consensus is a 2004 opinion essay published in Science magazine by Naomi Oreskes, a science historian now at Harvard. She claimed to have examined abstracts of 928 articles published in scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and found that 75% supported the view that human activities are responsible for most of the observed warming over the previous 50 years while none directly dissented.Ms. Oreskes’s definition of consensus covered “man-made” but left out “dangerous”—and scores of articles by prominent scientists such as Richard Lindzen, John Christy, Sherwood Idso and Patrick Michaels, who question the consensus, were excluded. The methodology is also flawed. A study published earlier this year in Nature noted that abstracts of academic papers often contain claims that aren’t substantiated in the papers.

Another widely cited source for the consensus view is a 2009 article in “Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union” by Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, a student at the University of Illinois, and her master’s thesis adviser Peter Doran. It reported the results of a two-question online survey of selected scientists. Mr. Doran and Ms. Zimmerman claimed “97 percent of climate scientists agree” that global temperatures have risen and that humans are a significant contributing factor.The survey’s …

Antarctica: No Warming Since 1979

Antarctica: No Warming Since 1979

http://www.thegwpf.org/antarctica-no-warming-since-1979/

There has been no warming in or around Antarctica since 1979.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
 As can be seen, there were two major cooling episodes, centred around 1993/94 and 1999/2000, since which temperatures have recovered back to the levels of the 1980’s. Indeed the 120-Month running average is still not as high as it was in 1990.
This long term average has also been stable since 2011, implying that there has been little change since 2001.
Meanwhile, down at the pole itself, nothing much seems to be happening either, according to GISS.
 
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=700890090000&dt=1&ds=12
Finally, let’s check out the SST’s for the Southern Ocean, from Bob Tisdale’s website.
 
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/05/05/april-2014-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/
 Full post…

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