Polar Vortex In 1976/77 & 1936: ‘USA had exactly the same pattern of weather in the winter of 1976/77’

Polar Vortex In 1936


By Paul Homewood
Tabloid climatologists continue to try to blame the America’s cold winter this year on global warming, but as WUWT and Steve Goddard have pointed out, the USA had exactly the same pattern of weather in the winter of 1976/77.

And if you go back to 1936, the second coldest winter on record in the CONUS, you also find something similar.
The GISS maps below compare the winter of 1935/6 with this year.


Although 1935/6 is colder, we can see very similar patterns:

Cold weather plunging down from the Arctic over the eastern half of the country.
Much warmer conditions in the West.
Milder air than usual over Greenland.
Warm weather over most of Europe.

They did not know they had a jet stream in 1936, but it still had the same effect on weather as it does now.

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Aussie Geologist Dr. Robert Carter: ‘The IPCC has accomplished the inversion of the null hypothesis, where the onus is now on disproving dangerous AGW’

Judith Curry Reflects


By Paul Homewood
Some reflections from Judith Curry.
iai TV has a series Philosophy for our times: cutting edge debates.  Frankie May of iai TV pointed me to this debate between Bob Carter, Michael McIntyre and Richard Cornfeld entitled What we don’t know about CO2: The science of climate change.  My attention was piqued in particular by the participation of Michael McIntyre, who is likely to be the smartest guy in any room with climate scientists in it.  The blurb for the debate is :
There is no question that CO2 levels are increasing due to human activity. But predicting the impact of this is less straightforward. Will our understanding of the world’s climate system remain mired in complexity until it is too late? Or is apocalyptic thinking confusing the science?
I listened to whole thing (its about 15 minutes), it is superb.  There are many gems in this, from each of the 3 participants. At the end of this, I don’t see much disagreement among the three participants. Some notes I took from listening to the debate.
We shouldn’t worry, we should just accept that this will happen and we should adapt to it and regard it as a business opportunity.
Its arrogant to assume that climate will remain static.
The whole language of climate change is designed to confuse the public and policy makers
Bob Carter says the IPCC has accomplished the inversion of the null hypothesis, where the onus is now on disproving dangerous anthropogenic climate change
We should focus on protecting people from natural hazards, and not worrying about what is causing them
It makes sense to encourage alternative energy and see what happens.
Bob Carter closed with this: no scientist can tell you whether it will be warmer or cooler in 2020, so we should prepare for both
JC reflections
It is gratifying to see leading scientists and thinkers ‘stepping off the reservation’ to provide interpretations of climate science and thoughts on how we should respond, that differ from the IPCC assessments and the more alarmist interpretations.
It is unfortunate that it seems to be primarily the independent scientists and retired scientists that are doing this; government employees in many countries would not do this (even if their personal convictions differ from the IPCC consensus), and the same seems to be true for most scientists employed by universities.  This is a …

New paper finds current abrupt changes in Arctic are typical of the past 66 million years – Published in Quaternary Science Reviews

New paper finds current abrupt changes in Arctic are typical of the past 66 million years


An important review paper published today in Quaternary Science Reviews demonstrates that the rapid changes in the Arctic which have been blamed on man by alarmists are in fact within the norm of frequent, large and abrupt changes for the entire Cenozoic Era [past 66 million years]. According to the paper, “Globally, the general trend of increasing air surface temperature over the last 15 years has slowed in recent years, and is currently four times less than predicted by simulations [of the latest IPCC climate models] (Fyfe et al., 2013). However, over the same interval, global atmospheric CO2 level has continued to increase (Francey et al., 2013) and the Arctic Ocean has experienced a rapid decline in summer sea ice extent and thickness (Stroeve et al., 2012) (Fig. 1). The lack of a strong correlation between global average air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and Arctic summer sea ice provides one example that shows that Arctic environmental changes are heavily influenced by complex interplays between different feedback mechanisms.” i.e. not the simplistic explanation by warmists that all changes in the Arctic are man-made. According to the authors, “Instead of interpreting changes almost exclusively as near linear responses to external forcing (e.g. orbitally-forced climate change [or man-made greenhouse gases]), research is now concentrated on the importance of strong feedback mechanisms that in our palaeo-archives often border on chaotic behaviour. The last decade of research has revealed the importance of on-off switching of ice streams, strong feedbacks between sea level and ice sheets, spatial and temporal changes in ice shelves and perennial sea ice, as well as alterations in ice sheet dynamics caused by shifting centres of mass in multi-dome ice sheets.”The paper states, “Perhaps the next paradigm shift is towards recognising the unstable nature of Arctic cryosphere and Arctic environmental change more widely? That instability likely makes predicting the future a real challenge.”
The dynamic Arctic

Martin Jakobssona, , , 
Ólafur Ingólfssonb, c, 
Antony J. Longd, 
Robert F. Spielhagene

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Research campaigns over the last decade have yielded a growing stream of data that highlight the dynamic nature of Arctic cryosphere and climate change over a range of time scales. As a consequence, rather than seeing the Arctic as a near static environment in which large scale changes occur slowly, we now view …