Tuesday, January 31, 2023
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Warm, Cold, Dry,Wet? It’s All your Fault Anyway! – UK Guardian: ‘Climate change will make UK weather too wet and too dry, says Met Office’


Warm, Cold, Dry,Wet? It’s All your Fault Anyway!


By Paul Homewood

As Tallbloke has pointed out, this report seems to have been leaked to the Met Office’s friends, the BBC & Guardian, even though there is nothing on their own website.
There is, in fact, nothing new in the report, which has no doubt been wheeled out to frighten us all. It simply repeats previous forecasts, such as the UK Climate Projections Report and DEFRA’s Climate Change Risk Assessment.
Meanwhile, despite the last few months, UK winters have been growing steadily colder since 2007, and the long term trend is lower than in the 1920’s.

While summer temperatures remain stable.

As for rainfall, the long term trend has been towards drier winters, even despite the recent wet spell. The wettest decade remains the 1910’s.

And summer? It probably won’t surprise you by now to find that summers have been getting noticeably wetter, since the dry interlude in the 1960’s and 70’s. Again, we see that conditions have returned to those seen in the 1920’s.

Finally, I notice that the Guardian has wheeled out the “Extreme Rainfall” graph, although it is not clear if this is part of the new report.

As I have shown before, for instance here and here, the 1960’s and 70’s were an unusually dry interlude, and any conclusions drawn about extreme rainfall trends, using these years as a starting point, are misleading and meaningless.
Analysis of data from earlier decades suggests that there is no long term increase in extreme rainfall. The Met Office have all this data, and more, available, so why do they persist in making misleading claims, based on such a short and unrepresentative dataset?

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