Renewables Crisis: Brazil Scrambles To Avoid Blackouts As Energy Costs Soar
Renewables Crisis: Brazil Scrambles To Avoid Blackouts As Energy Costs Soar
http://www.thegwpf.org/renewables-crisis-brazil-scrambles-to-avoid-blackouts-as-energy-costs-soar/
Brazil is fighting against time to avoid crippling power blackouts and electricity rationing as a drought prevents the world’s most water-rich nation from recharging its hydroelectric dams. Without the new gas, coal and oil capacity built since 2002, Brazil would already be turning off the lights.
A decade of growth has diversified the electricity system away from hydropower, but policymakers, industrial companies and investors in the world’s seventh-largest economy may find little cause to relax.
Rio de Janeiro-based energy consultancy PSR puts the odds of rationing at nearly 1 in 4.
“Rationing or not, the drought’s impact on Brazil will be large,” said PSR Director Jose Rosenblatt. “There’s no way to avoid it.”
Hydro reservoirs, which generate two-thirds of Brazil’s power, are at near-record lows. To keep the lights on and factories open, all of the country’s main thermal power plants are running full throttle as an estimated 600,000 visitors prepare to arrive for the June start of the soccer World Cup.
The situation is already testing the government of President Dilma Rousseff as October’s presidential election nears.
The risks of rationing and costs associated with the drought threaten growth and investment in the country, Standard & Poor’s said on Monday when it downgraded the credit rating on Brazil’s foreign currency debt.
The administration said on March 13 that it will cost 12 billion reais ($5.2 billion) in 2014 to rescue utilities forced to pay record-high prices to replace cheap hydro with more-expensive power from natural gas, coal and oil plants.
That will probably drive up inflation this year and next. At nearly 6 percent, the rate is close to the top of the government’s target band. If the 2001-2002 drought is any guide, Brazil’s expected 1.7 percent 2014 growth rate could fall to 1 percent or less, according to Brazilian bank BTG Pactual SA.
Rationing, the bank says, is the worst option, but higher power prices for a steel mill or mine would cut corporate profit almost as surely as assembly lines or shops shut by rationing.
For Rousseff, even more is at stake. Without rain, her re-election chances may narrow despite a strong early lead in polls.
“The credibility of the government rests on Rousseff’s handling of the drought,” said Guilherme Schmidt, an energy industry lawyer and partner at L.O. Baptista in Rio de Janeiro “For …
Coldest October-March In The U.S. In 102 Years
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/coldest-october-march-in-the-us-in-102-years/…
David Letterman Pushes Jimmy Carter To Agree That A ‘Global Mandate’ Is Needed ‘To Do Anything About Climate Change’ – Carter Supports Carbon Tax
New paper finds no effect of ‘acidification’ on plankton from CO2 levels 8 times higher than today – Published in Biogeosciences
New paper finds no effect of “acidification” on plankton from CO2 levels 8 times higher than today
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/03/new-paper-finds-no-effect-of.html
A paper published today in Biogeosciences finds that prior claims about the effects of ocean “acidification” on calcifying plankton are highly exaggerated because the artificial laboratory conditions utilized do not correctly simulate the effects in natural seawater. The authors find exposure of the plankton to “acidification” from elevated CO2 concentrations of up to 3247 ppm [over 8 times higher than the present] had no effect on the life cycle (population density, growth and reproduction) of calcifying plankton when natural buffering sediment was present in the experiment.
The paper adds to several others invalidating the vast prior literature on the effects of “acidification” as overblown due to biased, artificial laboratory conditions [often just putting sulfuric acid in an aquarium] that don’t correctly simulate the buffering effects of a natural environment.
Calcifying plankton [foraminifera]
Needless to say, the effects of increased CO2 on non-calcifying plankton are 100% positive due to CO2 fertilization.
Biogeosciences, 11, 1581-1597, 2014www.biogeosciences.net/11/1581/2014/doi:10.5194/bg-11-1581-2014
Response of benthic foraminifera to ocean acidification in their natural sediment environment: a long-term culturing experiment
K. Haynert1, J. Schönfeld1, R. Schiebel2, B. Wilson3, and J. Thomsen41GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, 24148 Kiel, Germany2University of Angers, Laboratoire des Bio-Indicateurs Actuels et Fossiles, LPG-BIAF, UMR6112 CNRS, 2 Boulevard Lavoisier, 49045 Angers, France3Petroleum Geoscience Programme, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago4GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Hohenbergstrasse 2, 24105 Kiel, GermanyAbstract. Calcifying foraminifera are expected to be endangered by ocean acidification; however, the response of a complete community kept in natural sediment and over multiple generations under controlled laboratory conditions has not been constrained to date. During 6 months of incubation, foraminiferal assemblages were kept and treated in natural sediment with pCO2-enriched seawater of 430, 907, 1865 and 3247 μatm pCO2. The fauna was dominated by Ammonia aomoriensis and Elphidium species, whereas agglutinated species were rare. After 6 months of incubation, pore water alkalinity was much higher in comparison to the overlying seawater. Consequently, the saturation state of Ωcalc was much higher in the sediment than in the water column in nearly all pCO2 treatments and remained close to saturation. As a result, the life cycle (population density, growth and reproduction) of living assemblages varied markedly during the experimental period, but was largely unaffected by the pCO2 …
New paper finds ‘surprisingly, there are many US weather stations that show cooling’ over the past century – Published in the Journal of Climate
New paper finds “surprisingly, there are many US weather stations that show cooling” over the past century
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/03/new-paper-finds-surprisingly-there-are.html
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds, contrary to popular belief, that US “monthly maximum temperatures are not often greatly changing — perhaps surprisingly, there are many stations that show some cooling [over the past century]. In contrast, the minimum temperatures show significant warming. Overall, the Southeastern United States shows the least warming (even some cooling), and the Western United States, Northern Midwest, and New England have experienced the most warming.”In essence, this paper is saying the weather/climate has become less extreme, with little to no change in maximum temperatures “and even some cooling” of maximum temperatures in some stations, and warming of minimum temperatures. Thus the temperature range between minimum and maximum temperatures has decreased, a less extreme, more benign climate.
Note these results are after the huge up-justments made to the US temperature data and urban heat island [UHI] artificial warming, which could account for all or most of the warming of minimum temperatures.
Journal of Climate 2014 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00283.1
Trends in Extreme United States Temperatures
Jaechoul Lee*
Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho
Shanghong Li and Robert Lund
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina
Abstract
This paper develops trend estimation techniques for monthly maximum and minimum temperature time series observed in the conterminous 48 United States over the last century. While most scientists concur that this region has warmed on aggregate, there is no a priori reason to believe that temporal trends in extremes and averages will exhibit the same patterns. Indeed, under minor regularity conditions, the sample partial sum and maximum of stationary time series are asymptotically independent (statistically). Previous authors have suggested that minimum temperatures are warming faster than maximum temperatures in the United States; such an aspect can be investigated via our methods. Here, statistical models with extreme value and changepoint features are used to estimate trends and their standard errors. A spatial smoothing is then done to extract general structure. The results show that monthly maximum temperatures are not often greatly changing — perhaps surprisingly, there are many stations that show some cooling. In contrast, the minimum temperatures show significant warming. Overall, the Southeastern United States shows the least warming (even some cooling), and the Western United States, Northern Midwest, and New England have …
‘The Turning Of The Tide’: ‘Supporters of the CO2 driven theory of anthropogenic global warming are in full panic mode’
Massive Nor’easter bigger than Hurricane Sandy expected to bring winds, snow, cold blast to Northeast for late March
Massive Nor’easter bigger than Hurricane Sandy expected to bring winds, snow, cold blast to Northeast for late March
March came in like a lion, and it looks like the lion isn’t leaving, can’t blame polar vortex this time. As a massive winter storm at sea known as a Nor’easter prepares to skirts the Northeast coast of the USA, bringing with it high seas and bitterly cold weather in its wake, Dr. Ryan Maue […]
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Record ‘January-like Cold’ Headed for U.S. Midwest and East
Record Cold Headed for U.S. Midwest and East
http://iceagenow.info/2014/03/record-cold-headed-u-s-midwest-east/
“January-like Cold” in Wake of Blizzard
“Frigid air will pour in across the Midwest, South and mid-Atlantic into Wednesday,” warns Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist with accuweather.com.
The “unusually cold air for late March” will challenge record low temperatures Wednesday morning in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.
(Yes, I guess record cold could qualify as “unusually cold air.”)
Freezing temperatures will also dip into the Deep South Wednesday morning, including Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and northern Florida, causing damage to some tender plants and blossoms.
“January-like Cold”
January-like cold will persist across the Midwest and East through the middle of this week, agrees Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist with accuweather.com.
Temperatures will average 15-30 F below normal in many locations including North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York City and Boston.
The cold could force cancellation or postponement of some sporting events.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-cold-a-freeze-and-bitin/24852920
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/arctic-cold-returning-to-midwe/24687912
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UN IPCC Lead Author ‘asks for his name to be removed from the document’ – Over ‘silliness’ – Dissent among scientists over key UN IPCC climate impact report
UN IPCC: impact of climate change small, either beneficial or not
IPCC: impact of climate change small, either beneficial or not
Media write about the report of the Second Working Group of the IPCC (focusing on “impacts of the hypothetical climate change”) that will release its fifth report next Monday. Most of the sources tell us about the catastrophes that will cripple Asia, Australia, and any other random piece of the globe. You have seen this stuff 1,000 times in the past so you may imagine what they have to offer.But there are some notable exceptions. The BBC chose an interesting title, Dissent among scientists over key climate impact report. But The Sydney Morning Herald has the most upbeat article.Their environment editor states thatIPCC report downplays economic impacts of climate change, reviewer saysand some proclamations in the article are even better.Most of them are based on the words of Richard Tol, a sensible guy working in the group. If he is right, the IPCC report should contain the following remarkable sentence:Estimates agree on the size of the impact (small relative to economic growth) but disagree on the sign.This is exactly what I have been saying for a decade. The impacts of AGW are very small so you may ignore them. Moreover, if you academically want to think about the impacts, regardless of their smallness, you will find out that the sign is uncertain. Well, any modest enough warming is more likely to be beneficial than harmful.Last September, when the First Working Group (Physical Basis) released its fifth report, I was sort of optimistic (on TV and in a newsletter), suggesting that we may be nicely surprised by Spring 2014. The other parts of the IPCC may very well see the light before WG1 and they may conclude that there is no problem before others do.This description of the situation is perhaps too optimistic but we may get pretty close to it so next week, I will be watching what is actually in the report and the summary.The Sydney Morning Herald discusses various errors and non-errors and sign errors and quotes Richard Tol, a chapter’s coordinating author, who has described Bob Ward, an IPCC reviewer, as Nick Stern’s attack dog. If the IPCC concludes that the effects of climate change are small and potentially beneficial and that the alarmists are attack dogs, erroneous inkspillers, and unhinged crackpots, it will represent some progress from the fourth IPCC report that has omitted these …