‘No global warming for 17 years 3 months’ — A Monckton Analysis

Special to Climate Depot

No global warming for 17 years 3 months

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley 

The Long Pause just got three months longer – it’s now 17 years 3 months

The RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies for November 1996 to October 2013 had shown no global warming for exactly 204 months – the first dataset to show the full 17 years without warming specified by Ben Santer as showing the models got it wrong.

After the sharp global cooling in November, the RSS data for September 1996 to November 2013 show no global warming at all for 17 years 3 months, despite a continuing record rate of increase in CO2 concentration.


The models are badly underestimating the magnitude of natural influences on global temperature, not the least of which is the recent decline in solar activity. They are also badly overestimating the warming effect of CO2.

Since CO2 does cause some warming. it is more likely than not that global warming will return eventually. Not at anything like the predicted rate, but it will return.

It is prudent, then, to look not only at the now embarrassingly lengthening Long Pause, which a sufficiently energetic El Niño could bring to an end, but also at the now embarrassingly widening Gaping Gap between the +0.23 Celsius/decade the models predict for the first half of this century and the –0.02 Celsius/decade that is actually happening. The Gaping Gap is likely to remain, and to widen, even if global warming resumes.

How much warming does the IPCC predict?

Before we get to the Gaping Gap graph and the Global Warming Prediction Index that is calculated from it, we first establish exactly how much global warming the most recent IPCC Assessment Report predicts.

It is this prediction that will be benchmarked against measured real-world temperature change.


The diagram above is an adaptation of Figure 11.33ab of the IPCC’s 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, which backcasts to January 2005 the combined global-warming projections of up to 34 computer models under each of four radiative-forcing scenarios.

The diagram shows the models predict the world will warm till 2050 at a rate equivalent to 0.13-0.33 Cº/decade (central estimate 0.23 Cº/decade), or 1.33-3.33 Cº/century (central estimate 2.33 Cº/century).

The range of projected warming, 0.4-1.0 Cº over 30 years (again equivalent to 0.13-0.33 Cº/decade or 1.33-3.33 Cº/century), is also explicitly stated at paragraph of the Fifth