New paper demonstrates climate models don’t even have the ‘basic physics’ of the greenhouse effect correct – Published in Geophysical Research Letters

New paper demonstrates climate models don’t even have the ‘basic physics’ of the greenhouse effect correct

A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters inadvertently demonstrates that climate models don’t even have the so-called ‘basic physics’ of the greenhouse effect correct. According to the paper, climate models show that “With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value [i.e. ~39 ppm], runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near – 30 °C.”

However, -30°C is much colder than the -18°C calculated* for an Earth with no atmosphere or oceans or greenhouse effect at all! Further, -30°C is much, much colder [i.e. 35°C colder] than the +5°C calculated using the IPCC formula** for CO2 forcing using a CO2 level of 39 ppm.

It is astonishing that the authors, who claim to be top experts on the physics of CO2 radiative transfer, did not realize that their computer model is outputting physically-impossible GIGO. 

Perhaps this is not surprising, since the paper is co-authored by Andrew “control knob” Lacis, who claims CO2 contributes 20% (alone) to the greenhouse effect. That means CO2 was responsible for 6.44C warming in 1850 [32.2*.2] and 6.6C now [33*.2], a warming effect of 0.2C despite a 40% increase in CO2 levels! [assuming a total ‘greenhouse effect’ of 33C].

Also using the same flawed climate model, the authors simulated the effect of 79,360 ppm CO2, 256 times the 1950 value [~310 ppm in 1950, current ~400 ppm], which would only take 39,480 years to reach at the current rate of 2 ppm/year, assuming unlimited fossil fuels and no intervening ice age of course. Despite the ridiculous 79,360 ppm levels of CO2, the authors state, “No water vapor induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined.”

The first 20 ppm accounts for over half of the alleged heating effect of CO2 to the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm, by which time carbon dioxide is tuckered out as a greenhouse gas. Source

Logarithmically declining CO2 forcing effect is greatest at the lower concentrations. Source

*note this simplistic calculation widely used in greenhouse effect calculations assumes a flat, stationary earth receiving 340 Wm-2 solar input instead of the physically realistic calculation using real-time differential thermal equations of a rotating Earth receiving 1362 Wm-2 solar input. Using …