The IPCC, UFOs & Pseudoscience: ‘The head of the IPCC has written a novel in which the central character is infatuated with pseudoscience and in which UFO enthusiast Shirley MacLean is presented as credible’
The IPCC, UFOs & Pseudoscience
http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-ipcc-ufos-pseudoscience.html
The head of the IPCC has written a novel in which the central character is infatuated with pseudoscience and in which UFO enthusiast Shirley MacLean is presented as credible. The final installment of the Nobel Laureate Summer Reading series.Read the rest here. This blog has relocated. You can sign up to receive an e-mail each time a new post is added under the “Email subscription” bar a little below the photo.NoFrakkingConsensus has a Facebook page.
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Another Bust: Precipitation Forecasts Come A-Cropper: ‘Climate forecasts made by climate models running under scenarios of increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are blowing both their temperature and precipitation prognostications’
Another Bust: Precipitation Forecasts Come A-Cropper
http://www.cato.org/blog/another-bust-precipitation-forecasts-come-cropper
Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels
Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”
When people think about the weather, two variables are first to come to mind—temperature and precipitation. Unless it’s sunny when it’s not supposed to be (or vice-versa), near-term temperature forecasts tend to be pretty good. What messes up your day is when it rains when it’s not supposed to, and what really screws things up is when there is a significant unforecast snow, or a lot more (or less) than there was supposed to be. If whatever oracle you consistently consult, like The Weather Channel or Channel 9, consistently blows the precipitation forecast, you’ll soon be looking elsewhere for your forecast, and if changing forecasters doesn’t help, you’re going to sour on the whole weather forecasting business
Climate forecasts made by climate models running under scenarios of increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are blowing both their temperature and precipitation prognostications. They tend to predict far more warming to be taking place than is actually occurring, and when it comes to precipitation, the projections are all over the place—a characteristic dislexically summed up in the Second Assessment Report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Warmer temperatures will lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle; this translates into prospects for more severe droughts and/or floods in some places and less severe droughts and/or floods in other places.
So, according to the IPCC, whatever happens to precipitation will have been correctly forecast!
In some areas of the U.S., it is actually possible to pin down specific climate model expectations for precipitation changes. Unfortunately (for the models), the actual observations show little if any correspondence to the magnitude, or even direction, of the modeled changes.
We pointed out this disconcerting tendency in our comments made this spring during the public comment period for the current draft version of the government’s latest National Climate Assessment, and again in a presentation made earlier this summer at the Science Policy Conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
Now, there’s a new paper that has just been accepted in AGU’s scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters that …
Minnesota – July cold breaks 102-year-old record
Minnesota – July cold breaks 102-year-old record
http://iceagenow.info/2013/08/minnesota-july-cold-breaks-102-year-old-record/
“Weekend temperatures in Pipestone plummeted to lows not seen for 102 years,” says this article by Debra Fitzgerald.
“Temperatures of 39 degree and 38 degrees were recorded in Pipestone on Saturday morning, July 27 and Sunday morning, July 28 respectively, according to Mike Gillispie, National Weather Service meteorologist out of Sioux Falls, S.D.
“The lows broke the record of 42 degrees set in 1911.”
“It doesn’t happen often”
“When we’re setting records that have been around for 100 years, it doesn’t happen often,” Gillispie said.
http://www.pipestonestar.com/Stories/Story.cfm?SID=43732
Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link
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