U.S. Government Scientist’s Shock Admission: ‘Climate Model Software Doesn’t Meet the Best Standards Available’

Two prominent U.S. Government scientists made two separate admissions questioning the reliability of climate models used to predict warming decades and hundreds of years into the future.

Gary Strand, a software engineer at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), admitted climate model software “doesn’t meet the best standards available” in a comment he posted on the website Climate Audit.

“As a software engineer, I know that climate model software doesn’t meet the best standards available. We’ve made quite a lot of progress, but we’ve still quite a ways to go,” Strand wrote on July 5, 2009, according to the website WattsUpWithThat.com.

Strand’s candid admission promoted WattsUpWithThat’s skeptical Meteorologist Anthony Watts to ask the following question:

“Do we really want Congress to make trillion dollar tax decisions today based on ‘software [that] doesn’t meet the best standards available?’”

Meteorologist Watts also critiqued the current climate models, noting, “NASA GISS model E written on some of the worst FORTRAN coding ever seen is a challenge to even get running. NASA GISTEMP is even worse. Yet our government has legislation under consideration significantly based on model output that Jim Hansen started. His 1988 speech to Congress was entirely based on model scenarios.”

Another Government Scientist Admits Climate Model Shortcomings

Another government scientist — NASA climate modeler Gavin Schmidt — admitted last week that the “chaotic component of climate system…is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically.”

Schmidt made his admission during a June 29, 2009 interview about the shortcomings of climate models. Schmidt noted that some climate models “suggest very strongly” that the American Southwest will dry in a warming world. But Schmidt also noted that “other models suggest the exact opposite.”

“With these two models, you have two estimates — one says it’s going to get wetter and one says it’s going to get drier. What do you do? Is there anything that you can say at all? That is a really difficult question,” Schmidt conceded.

“The problem with climate prediction and projections going out to 2030 and 2050 is that we don’t anticipate that they can be tested in the way you can test a weather forecast. It takes about 20 years to evaluate because there is so much unforced variability in the system which we can’t predict — the chaotic component of the climate system — which is not predictable beyond two

MIT Climate Scientist: ‘Ordinary people see through man-made climate fears — but educated people are very vulnerable’

MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen mocked man-made global warming fears in a July 2, 2009 radio interview on WRKO’s Howie Carr program. (Full audio of Lindzen’s interview available here.)

Lindzen noted that man-made climate fears were “divorced from nature” and he said the scientific foundation for climate fears is “falling apart.”

“How did we get a population that can be told something that contradicts their senses and go crazy over it?” Lindzen asked on the program. Lindzen recently co-signed an open letter to Congress with a team of scientists warning: “You Are Being Deceived About Global Warming’ — ‘Earth has been cooling for ten years.’

When asked about climate fears, Lindzen dismissed the notion that “ordinary” Americans are buying into former Vice President Al Gore’s climate views.

“We are too smart for that. You look at the polls, ordinary people see through this, but educated people are very vulnerable,” Lindzen quipped. (at 09:14 min. mark on audio)

Lindzen noted that people are being told that if they change a lightbulb, they are “saving the Earth”, they are “virtuous, they are smart.”

“Now you are told if you that if you don’t understand global warming is going on, you are dumb, but if you agree to it, you are smart,” Lindzen explained.

Climate Depot Note:

Current polling data reveals that the American people “get it” when it comes to man-made global warming fears. Given the wealth of recent polling data showing Americans are growing increasingly skeptical, Congressmen and Senators are simply not hearing any clamor from voters to “act” to “solve” global warming.

In fact, the opposite is true, voters are rebelling against the unfounded climate fears and the so-called “solutions” in growing numbers. Below is a small sampling of recent polling data on global warming.

1) Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – March 2009

2) Gallup Poll Editor: Gore has ‘Failed’ — ‘The public is just not that concerned’ about global warming – May 2009

3) Zobgy Poll: Only 30% of Americans support cap-and-trade — 57% oppose – April 2009

4) “Gallup Poll: Record-High 41% of Americans Now Say Global Warming is Exaggerated” – March 11, 2009

5) Rasmussen Poll found Only 34% Now Blame Humans for Global Warming – ‘Lowest finding yet’ — ‘reversal from a year ago!’

6) Rasmussen Reports: Congress Pushes Cap and Trade, But Just