The Tornado Report For 2014

The Tornado Report For 2014

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/03/18/the-tornado-report-for-2014/

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.

By Paul Homewood The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has now finalised the tornado count for 2014, giving a total of 888, of which 476 were the weakest EF-0 category. Changes in observation practices in recent years mean that many more of these weakest tornadoes are reported nowadays, as NOAA confirm: Today, nearly all of the United States is reasonably well populated, or at least covered by NOAA’s Doppler weather radars. Even if a tornado is not actually observed, modern damage assessments by National Weather Service personnel can discern if a tornado caused the damage, and if so, how strong the tornado may have been. This disparity between tornado records of the past and current records contributes a great deal of uncertainty regarding questions about the long-term behavior or patterns of tornado occurrence. Improved tornado observation practices have led to an increase in the number of reported weaker tornadoes, and in recent years EF-0 tornadoes have become more prevelant in the total number of reported tornadoes. In addition, even today many smaller tornadoes still may go undocumented in places with low populations or inconsistent communication facilities. With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) …

U.S. sees three quietest tornado years in a row since records began

Special to Climate Depot

Three quietest tornado years in a row in the record? 

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/three_quietest_tornado_seasons_in_a_row_in_the_history1/

By Boris Konon, Meteorologist and Storm Chaser

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Source

October average is 61 (69 preliminary) and November average is 58 (27 preliminary). Preliminary number for Dec so far is 27 and average is 24.
Although an isolated tornado or two this weekend along the Gulf coast is possible, that essentially appears to be it for theyear.  The 27 prelim count this month is about 10 less for a final count when you remove duplicate reports from 12/23.  Yearly avg is 1253.

I estimate the final count for 2014 will be ~835.  That is an extraordinary deviation from the mean.  67% of average, 6% lower than 2013 and 8% lower than 2012!  This is the lowest count since 1988 when 702 tornadoes occurred (1988 had a big CONUS drought as in heat and lack of rainfall and that keep the tornado count down).  1989 was second with 856.

Here is a graphic that shows “detrended” tornado counts over the years. This helps to account for the better detection and documentation over time.  Not perfect, but better than just the raw numbers.  Look at 2014…about two standard deviations below average!

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Look at the last 15 years…I see more well below average than well above.  Another way of looking at it, there are more wild swings in the past 15
years.  True, but the door swings both ways and unlike say precipitation (too wet or too dry) the lack of tornadoes is a good extreme regardless of how you look at it.  So with tornadoes, the more wild swing hypothesis due to climate change cancels things out more or less in the long run.  Yes, there will be big years and devastating outbreaks, but that is part of normal climatic variation.  As we have seen, for some reason the very occurrence even a single tornado is somehow “unusual” and makes national headlines routinely, even if it hits nothing or does minor damage with no harm to anyone.

Highlighting such an event only belongs on local news stations near the actual event and TWC/WxNation as a story, and perhaps briefly mentioned in the actual wxcasts on national news at times.

Another item, this is the third year in a row where U.S. tornado fatalities have decreased.  It is not just regression to the mean either due to the …

Tame tornadoes: Quietest 3 years for twisters on record

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/12/13/tornado-drought/20240063/
As this year comes to a close, about 150 fewer damaging tornadoes than average have hit the U.S., according to data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Explanations for the decrease in twisters the past three years range from unusual cold to unusual heat, or just coincidence.

Despite the calmer than average years, deaths due to twisters remain near the average of 60 each year, with 68 killed in 2012, 55 in 2013 and 42 so far this year, according to the SPC. That pales in comparison with the 553 Americans killed by tornadoes in 2011.…

Experts Busted Again: Three Consecutive Years Of Record Low Tornado Activity

Experts Busted Again : Three Consecutive Years Of Record Low Tornado Activity

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/experts-busted-again-three-consecutive-years-of-record-low-tornado-activity

Three years ago, climate experts blamed the tornado in Joplin, Missouri on global warming. Did Global Warming Destroy My Hometown? | Popular Science Each of the three years since that claim was made, have successively broken the record for record low tornado activity in the US. Storm Prediction Center WCM Page

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Tornado Count Remains Low: ‘Second lowest of the last decade’

Tornado Count Remains Low

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/tornado-count-remains-low/

By Paul Homewood A quick update on US tornadoes, which have continued to run at well below average levels. Based on provisional numbers, tornado numbers are the second lowest of the last decade, up to the end of September. (Tornado numbers are confirmed up to July). Last year boasted the lowest number, both at this stage of the year and for the full year. On a longer term, the “inflation adjusted” number is also close to the minimum. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data As for stronger tornadoes, there have so far been eight EF-4 tornadoes, and no EF-5’s. Last year there were also eight EF-4’s, for the full year, and one EF-5.

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