Russian Scientists Dismiss ‘Global Warming’, Predict Decades Of Cooling

Via: http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/23/russian-scientists-dismiss-co2-forcing-predict-decades-of-cooling-connect-cosmic-ray-flux-to-climate/

Scientific Papers Predict Cooling In Coming Decades


A new scientific paper authored by seven scientists affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences was just published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics.

The scientists dismiss both “greenhouse gases” and variations in the Sun’s irradiance as significant climate drivers, and instead embrace cloud cover variations — modulated by cosmic ray flux — as a dominant contributor to climate change.

A concise summary: As cosmic ray flux increases, more clouds are formed on a global scale.  More global-scale cloud cover means more solar radiation is correspondingly blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface (oceans).   With an increase in global cloud cover projected for the coming decades (using trend analysis), a global cooling is predicted.


Stozhkov et al., 2017

Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, and Changes in the Earth’s Climate

Stozhkov, Y.I., Bazilevskaya, G.A., Makhmutov, V.S., Svirzhevsky, N.S., Svirzhevskaya, A.K., Logachev, V.I., Okhlopkov, V.P.

“One of the most important problems facing humanity is finding the physical mechanism responsible for global climate change, particularly global warming on the Earth. … Summation of these periodicities for the future (after 2015) allows us to forecast the next few decades. The solid heavy line in Fig. 1 shows that cooling (a drop in ΔT values) is expected in the next few decades.”



“Figure 2 shows the dependence between the annual average changes ΔT in the global temperature in the near-surface air layer and charged particle flux N in the interval of altitudes from 0.3 to 2.2 km. We can see there is a connection between values ΔТ [temperature] and N [charged particle flux]: with an increase in cosmic ray flux N, the values of changes of global temperature decrease. This link is expressed by the relation ΔT = –0.0838N + 4.307 (see the dashed line in Fig. 2), where the ΔT values are given in °C, and the N values (in particle/min units) are related to the charged particle flux measured at an altitude of 1.3 km. The correlation coefficient of the line with the experimental data is r = –0.62 ± 0.08.”



“Our results could be connected with the mechanism of charged particle fluxes influencing the Earth’s climate; it includes, first of all, the effect charged particles have on the accelerated formation of centers

Blank Sun Transitions Towards Solar Minimum

A blank look to the sun on Monday, March 20, and it has now been blank for two weeks straight; image courtesy NASA/GSFC

The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch since April 2010 according to spaceweather.com . A blank look to the sun on Monday, March 20, and it has now been blank for two weeks straight; image courtesy NASA/GSFC Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum.

Source: Blank Sun Transitions Towards Solar Minimum

Third weakest solar cycle since 1755

The Sun has been spotless for two weeks straight, says meteorologist Anthony Watts. This makes it the longest stretch with zero sunspots since April 2010 Solar cycle 24, the solar cycle we are now in, has been historically weak, says Watts. “There have already been 26 spotless days in 2017 (34% of the entire year) and this follows 32 spotless days last year which occurred primarily during the latter part of the year. “The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum – probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.” Third weakest solar cycle since 1755 “By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. “One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.” https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/20/solar-slump-the-sun-has-been-blank-for-two-weeks-straight/ The post Third weakest solar cycle since 1755 appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Source: Third weakest solar cycle since 1755

Cloud-Forming Cosmic Rays Above Average More Than One Year As Sun Begins Slumber

Translated/edited from wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de . A huge hole in the magnetically hot corona of the sun in the coming weeks will lead to a powerful solar wind and initiate hefty polar lights in the earth’s magnetic field. This will be a brief pause in the solar activity slumber that has taken hold over the past year and thus allowed cosmic rays to penetrate almost freely into the earth’s atmosphere.

Source: Cloud-Forming Cosmic Rays Above Average More Than One Year As Sun Begins Slumber

20 New Papers Affirm Modern Climate Is In Phase With Natural Variability

20 New Papers Affirm Modern Climate Is In Phase With Natural Variability

Natural Variability Dominates Climate



Last week, the newly published Gagné et al. (2017) paper received some attention  because the authors pointed out that Arctic sea ice grew substantially between 1950 and 1975, consistent with the in-phase cooling trend during that period.

Gagné et al., 2017     Updated observational datasets without climatological infilling show that there was an increase in sea ice concentration in the Eastern Arctic between 1950 and 1975, contrary to earlier climatology in-filled observational datasets that show weak inter-annual variations during that time period.”

The AARI [Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute] and Walsh & Chapman sea ice data sets used in the paper (see graph above) included exclusively observational evidence  — “climatological infilling were not included … we only used observed data”.   Both observational data sets indicated that Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies were as low or lower in the early 1950s than they have been during recent decades.

During the early 1950s, CO2 concentrations hovered between 310 and 315 ppm.  Today, atmospheric CO2 has reached 400 ppm.  And yet early 1950s sea ice extent was similar to or lower than today.   This would imply that the Arctic sea ice recession observed in recent decades is well within the range of natural variability, or within the range of what has occurred without human interference or high rates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

In the recently published scientific literature, distinguishing between a presumably human-caused influence on climatic trends and natural or internal variability (or “noise”) has not only become more and more difficult, scientists are increasingly pointing out that an anthropogenic signal in climate trends “has yet to be detected above the level of natural climate variability.”

In addition to the more than 20 new scientific papers affirming a robust connection between solar forcing and climate already published in 2017, there are another new 20 scientific papers that indicate natural variability and/or natural oceanic/atmospheric oscillations (ENSO, NAO, PDO) dominate as modulators of precipitation, temperature/climate, and sea level/flooding.


Natural Variability, Ocean Cycles Dominate And Modulate Precipitation Patterns


1.  Lachniet et al., 2017     [M]onsoon dynamics appear to be linked to low-frequency variability in the ENSO and NAO, suggesting that ocean-atmosphere processes in the tropical oceans drive rainfall in Mesoamerica. … Climate model output suggests decreasing

20 New Scientific Papers Link Modern Climate Trends To Solar Forcing

20 New Scientific Papers Link Modern Climate Trends To Solar Forcing

http://notrickszone.com/2017/02/20/20-new-scientific-papers-link-modern-climate-trends-to-solar-forcing/

A Robust Sun-Climate Connection Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists “The emerging causal effects from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperatures], especially for recent decades, are overwhelmingly proved” — Huang et al., 2017 (1) Yndestad and Solheim, 2017 “Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.” Below, the trends in Total Solar Irradiance for 1700-2013, which comes from the Yndestad and Solheim (2017) paper cited above, are shown to closely correspond to the temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere (NH, derived from “the mean of 22 regional reconstructions of instrumental JJA [June-August] temperatures“) as shown in Stoffel et al., 2015. (2) Rydval et al., 2017 “[T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s … All six [Northern Hemisphere] records show a warmer interval in the period leading up to the 1950s, although it is less distinct in the CEU reconstruction. [E]xtreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. … There is reasonable agreement in general between the records regarding protracted cold periods which occur during the LIA and specifically around the Maunder solar minimum centred on the second half of the seventeenth century and to some extent also around the latter part of the fifteenth century coinciding with part of the Spörer minimum (Usoskin et al. 2007).” . (3) Huang et al., 2017 (full paper) “Various scientific studies have investigated the causal link between solar …

If Greens cared about CO2 they would dump renewable targets

If Greens cared about CO2 they would dump renewable targets

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/02/if-greens-cared-about-co2-they-would-dump-renewable-targets/

Those who say they want a “free market” in carbon still don’t understand what a free market is. RET’s or Renewable Energy Targets are screwed (in the head): If Tony Abbotts Direct Action plan was useless, RETS are five times more useless. In Australia the Renewable Energy Target (RET) in theory, helps wind and solar, so we lower CO2 emissions and cool the world, slow storms, things like that. But Tom Quirk calculates it costs $57 a ton (at best) for those “savings”. Since the Direct Action plan cost $11 a ton, we could reduce five times as much CO2 if we blew up the RET scheme. The secret is that the Abbott plan tackled CO2 directly rather than picking winners (see “competition”, “free markets” that sort of thing). Predictably, the Greens hated it — who needs CO2 reduction if you can support big-government-loving industries instead? (Especially the kind who lobby for the side of politics that wants more bureaucrats, more handouts, and less independent competition?) Those who say they want a “free market” in carbon still don’t understand what a free market is. It’s pretty simple, if they want a reduction in CO2, they need to pay for a […]Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)

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New Paper: 14 Scientists Affirm Solar Forcing, Not CO2, Is ‘Dominant Control’ For Modern Climate Change



One of the oft-stated “truths” for advocates of the position that humans are predominantly responsible for climate changes is that the Sun could not have played more than a negligible role in the global warming of the last few centuries. Indeed, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) report theorizes that the long-term solar contribution to climate change has been slightly above zero.


IPCC AR5:


And yet today’s scientists have not been deterred in their quest to document a robust Sun-Climate link in the paleoclimate data… as well as in the temperature and climatic changes for recent decades.  In 2016 alone, for example, there were over 130 scientific papers documenting a non-negligible solar influence on climate.

Climate scientist Dr. Jianyong Li, who has himself authored over 300 peer-reviewed scientific publications, continues this trend of linking climate changes to solar forcing.  He and 13 other scientists just published a new paper in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews in which they have clearly affirmed the dominance of the Sun’s forcing on the climate of China (and for the Northern Hemisphere in general) during the past few thousand years, including the last century.  The authors assert that climate changes and solar activity are well correlated throughout the paleoclimate record, and that if there is a role for greenhouse gases to influence climatic trends, that role is merely supplementary, not dominant.  They also describe in detail how the Sun’s variance acts to influence atmospheric and oceanic heat oscillations, and how this may affect regional precipitation, weather, and temperature changes.


Li et al., 2017

Summary

“We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation (e.g., Haigh, 1996; Shindell et al., 1999; Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Dykoski et al., 2005).”


Climate Changes/Oscillations And Solar Activity Well Correlated For North China, Northern Hemisphere

“Spectral analyses indicate that the PANN [annual precipitation] record has significant periodicities at 100, 67, 57 and 23 years; and the TANN [annual

Flashback 1967 National Geographic: Sunspots Control Glaciers – ‘Ice masses advance & retreat in direct correlation’ with sunspots

You should, in science, believe logic and arguments, carefully drawn, and not authorities.

– Richard Feynman

Fifty years ago, National Geographic understood that the sun controls glaciers. But that was before they realized they could make money lying about the climate.

National Geographic : 1967 Feb, Page 194

This was back in the days when NASA could still put people in space.