Polar Bear Population Is Rising, Despite ‘Global Warming’ Fears
Polar bears are much more resilient to changing levels of sea ice than environmentalists previously believed, and numerous healthy populations are thriving.
Predictions that bears would die due to a lack of sea ice have continuously not come to pass. A new study by Canadian scientists found “no evidence” polar bears are currently threatened by global warming.
“We see reason for concern, but find no reliable evidence to support the contention that polar bears are currently experiencing a climate crisis,” Canadian scientists wrote in their study, published in Ecology and Evolution.
Polar bears became an icon for environmentalists who claimed that melting Arctic sea ice could kill thousands of bears. Former Vice President Al Gore heavily promoted this viewpoint by featuring polar bears swimming for their lives and drowning in his 2006 film on global warming.…
NYT: Global Warming Is Turning Polar Bears Into ‘Refugees’
The New York Times believes Arctic-dwelling polar bears are “climate refugees,” fleeing for their lives from melting sea ice caused by man-made global warming.
Polar bears are migrating away from their traditional hunting grounds and toward areas in Canada, Russia, and Alaska, The NYT wrote Sunday, because sea ice is melting at a record pace.
Polar bears may seem healthy and at ease in their environments, the paper noted, but those that travel inland “are climate refugees, on land because the sea ice they rely on for hunting seals is receding.”
Their extinction does not appear to be as eminent as The NYT implies
Environmentalists have worked for years to place polar bears on the CITES’ “Appendix I” list, which includes animals considered threatened by immediate extinction.
But regulators have continued to balk at the campaign earlier this year, when they announced polar bears would remain on “Appendix II”– a list declaring a species to be endangered but otherwise fine for the time being.
[dcquiz] Polar bears are protected by the Endangered Species Act because they could potentially be harmed by global warming.
The NYT even admits that the species may not be that close to extinction, as only three groups of the 19 polar bear populations in the Arctic are considered at risk.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/18/nyt-global-warming-is-turning-polar-bears-into-refugees/…
‘If experts had been right about sea ice, there would be no polar bears in Churchill’
he simple fact is that if polar bear experts had been right about the threat to polar bears from the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, there would be no polar bears in Churchill this fall. No bears for tourists to photograph, none for biologists to study, and certainly none for the BBC to film for an upcoming three-part TV special called “Arctic Live.”
The low-ice future that biologists said would doom polar bears to extinction by 2050 has already happened in 8 out of the last 10 years. The sea ice future has been realized.
Polar bears have experienced those supposedly deadly low-ice summers for almost a decade but the global population did not drop by 2/3 as predicted and not a single one of the ten subpopulations predicted to be extirpated under those conditions has been wiped out.
How much more wrong can you be than that? Will the BBC mention this conundrum in their show? Will the polar bear experts they consult share this fact with viewers? We’ll all have to watch and see [show times and summaries of each program here, 1-3 November] but here are some background facts that might enhance your viewing experience.…
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 – they were wrong
Dire predictions that the Arctic would be devoid of sea ice by September this year have proven to be unfounded after latest satellite images showed there is far more now than in 2012.
Scientists such as Prof Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, and Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Moderey, California, have regularly forecast the loss of ice by 2016, which has been widely reported by the BBC and other media outlets.
Prof Wadhams, a leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, has recently published a book entitled A Farewell To Ice in which he repeats the assertion that the polar region would free of ice in the middle of this decade.
As late as this summer, he was still predicting an ice-free September.
Yet, when figures were released for the yearly minimum on September 10, they showed that there was still 1.6 million square miles of sea ice (4.14 square kilometres), which was 21 per cent more than the lowest point in 2012.
Scientists: The Arctic Was Sea-Ice-Free,19°C Warmer 4 Million Years Ago — And Yet Polar Bears Somehow Survived
“Whether polar bears are 350,000 years old or 6 million years old, unless we take action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, they face a future where the climate will continue to warm. And this warming will be unlike anything polar bears have survived before.” — Polar Bears International
Image: NoTricksZone
During the Pliocene, or from about 3 to 5 million years ago, subarctic regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Norway, Iceland, Canada) were up to 10°C warmer than they are now, and the Arctic region itself was as much as 19°C warmer than now, with sea-ice-free summers and no permafrost. All this warmth occurred while CO2 concentrations were well below today’s levels. Polar bears somehow managed to survive in these balmy Arctic and subarctic climates.
“Pollen from three subarctic sites in the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland and Labrador Sea indicate that mid-Pliocene January temperatures in Norway, Iceland and southeastern Canada were 4 to 10°C warmer than today (Willard 1994). … Evidence of both mixed deciduous/coniferous and coniferous forests placesmean July temperatures 10°C warmer than today [in Arctic Canada] (Vincent 1990). In addition, northwestern Alaska air and sea temperatures during peak Pliocene interglacials were considerably warmer than present, by 7 to 8°C, with no permafrost, and absent or severely limited sea ice (Carter et al. 1986; Kaufman and Brigham-Grette 1993).”
From the press release, Robinson states that Arctic summer sea surface temperatures were about 10-18°C (50 – 64°F) on average 4 million years ago, compared to 0°C (and lower) during summers today.
“The U.S. Geological Survey found that summer sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic were between 10 to 18°C (50 to 64°F) during the mid-Pliocene, while current temperatures are around or below 0°C (32°F).”
“The consensus among these proxies suggests that Arctic temperatures were ∼19 °C warmer during the Pliocene than at present, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼390 ppmv.”
…“Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice free conditions existed in some regions. … At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake ‘‘E’’) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8°C warmer than modern and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT [mean annual temperatures] were 11.8°C and 18.3°C higher than today.”
“[A] seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common … regionally during the early Holocene [6,000 to 10,000
The polar bear problem no one will talk about – the downside to large populations
The polar bear problem no one will talk about – the downside to large populations
A large polar bear population with lots of adult males – due to bans on hunting – means more survival pressure on young bears, especially young males. To blame more problems with young male bears on lack of sea ice due to global warming ignores the downside to the reality Norway asked for when it banned hunting more than 40 years ago. More hungry young males coming ashore looking for food is one of the potential consequences of living with a large, healthy population of polar bears. Biologist Ian Stirling warned of such problems back in 1974. Svalbard area polar bear numbers have increased 42% since 2004 and more hungry young polar bears almost certainly mean more polar bear problems, as folks in Svalbard (see map and quotes below) have experienced this year. According to a Yahoo News report this morning (28 September 2016, As Norway’s Arctic draws visitors, more polar bears get shot): “Halfway between the northern tip of Europe and the North Pole, the Svalbard archipelago of snow-capped mountains and glaciers is home to 2,654 people and 975 polar bears, according to a 2015 tally by the Norwegian Polar Institute. “Four polar bears have been shot so far this year,” Vidar Arnesen, a chief police inspector for the governor of Svalbard, told Reuters. “In a normal year, one or two would be shot.” “There are more contacts between humans and the animals,” he said aboard the Polarsyssel, the governor’s ship, used for inspections and rescue operations.” Independent young male polar bears (2-5 years) are less experienced hunters and at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Older, bigger bears often take their spring kills of young seals away from them (Stirling 1974:1196) – potentially leaving the teenagers without enough fat to see them through until fall. The bear pictured above that was removed from Longyearbyen should not have been onshore in April posing a threat to people. April is the prime feeding season for polar bears and there was lots of sea ice available on the east coast, as the sea ice map below shows: Competition with bigger, stronger bears likely drove the young male ashore looking for food that another bear wouldn’t take from him. Such issues were almost certainly among the problems Ian Stirling had in mind back in 1974 when …
5th-grader launches ‘youth ambassador program’ to teach kids about ‘global warming’
Via: http://woodtv.com/2016/09/26/boy-starts-site-to-teach-other-kids-about-global-warming/
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — A West Michigan 11-year-old is taking his knowledge of global climate change beyond the classroom.
Monday, Bryce Madder of Ada announced the launch of Polar Army, a nonprofit website to teach children about the impact global warming has on polar bears.
Bryce, a fifth-grader, spoke at the Grand Rapids Children’s Museum, announcing that kids of all ages can now be a part of the Polar Army by posting pictures and paintings of polar bears.
“I first learned about global warming about a year ago. I was in school and I found out by 2040, all the world’s sea ice will disappear. By 2050, we could actually lose two-thirds of polar bears, and that just really bothered me,” Bryce said.
Founded by 11 year old, Bryce Madder, Polar Army is an educational Non-Profit Company for kids dedicated to saving polar bears. Polar Army aims to educate children about global warming, its impact on the Arctic, and ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It does this through a global art initiative, youth ambassador program, school partnerships, brand/corporate sponsors, and business collaborations.
Founded by 11 year old, Bryce Madder, Polar Army is an educational Non-Profit Company for kids dedicated to saving polar bears. Polar Army aims to educate children about global warming, its impact on the Arctic, and ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It does this through a global art initiative, youth ambassador program, school partnerships, brand/corporate sponsors, and business collaborations.
Boy starts site to teach other kids about global warming
http://woodtv.com/2016/09/26/boy-starts-site-to-teach-other-kids-about-global-warming/
…
Polar bears trap Russian meteorologists in remote Arctic circle – running out of options
Russian meteorologists are finding out just how well polar bears are doing in the harsh#Environment of the Arctic. Five scientists are trapped on a remote Russian island because of a surplus of polar bears roving around their habitat. The Lords of the Arctic have surrounded the Russian weather station and don’t appear to be leaving anytime soon. That can be a real problem if your instruments are outside and you can’t reach them.
Located a long way from Moscow, the weather station is on a remote island in the Arcticcircle. The scientists have since run out of flares to scare off the ursine creatures, and it’s against Russian law to kill or shoot a polar bear unless it’s self-defense. The station chief, Vadim Plotnikov, said that without the flares there’s no other way to scare off the bears.
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Russian Meteorologists Are Trapped By Polar Bears 2,800 Miles From Moscowflip.it/wVLBby…
Russian Meteorologists Are Trapped By Polar Bears 2,800 Miles From Moscow
The Izvestia CEC weather station is located on the island Sevgidrometa in the southern part of the Kara Sea. Since the polar bears are sleeping under the station’s windows at night it’s too dangerous for the meteorologists to go out and take instrument readings. So far they’ve counted about a dozen adult bears near the station, including a female with four cubs.
Polar Bear numbers ‘up spectacularly this year and all are looking very fat and healthy’
Polar bears off the ice in W. Hudson Bay are “well fed and in great shape” this year
Reports from Seal River, just north of Churchill at Churchillwild, at July 26 were crowing about seeing lots of bears onshore, with a veritable beehive of activity the weekend of 16/17 July:
“This has without a doubt been Churchill Wild’s most spectacular start to the summer polar bear watching season. …Bear numbers are up spectacularly this year and all are looking very fat and healthy, perhaps much to the chagrin of climate change “experts.” Our best day for the seductive white carnivores over the past week featured 21 polar bears sighted between the Lodge and our whale swim spot!
…
The ice pack, which was still visible a week ago [i.e, 17 July or so], has finally dissipated and pushed a large number of bears on to our coastline here at Seal River, with the end result being many very happy cameras!” [my bold]
And in Churchill proper, the Polar Bear Alert program has issued three reports so far this season (courtesy the Town of Churchill), which confirm that bears in the Polar Bear Capital of the World are also in great shape.
For the week of July 11-17, 2016:
“Bears are off the sea ice and on land. They are looking well fed and in great shape.”
See all three PBA reports below, compared to one from last year at this time (as well as a map and some ice charts).
More fat, healthy bears than last year, enough to keep the Polar Bear Alert folks hopping and tourists in the north happy. Sure doesn’t sound like a suffering population to me.
Map (courtesy Churchillwild):
WEEK 1, 2016
WEEK 2, 2016
WEEK 3, 2016
EARLY JULY, 2015 (FOR COMPARISON), NO MENTION OF CONDITION:
LATE JULY 2015:
SEA ICE COMPARISON GRAPH FOR THE WEEK OF 9 JULY, 1971-2016:
SEA ICE MAP FOR 17 JULY 2016:
Critical spring feeding for polar bears is over – sea ice levels are now irrelevant
Polar bears in virtually all regions will now have finished their intensive spring feeding, which means sea ice levels are no longer an issue. A few additional seals won’t make much difference to a bear’s condition at this point.
The only seals available on the ice for polar bears to hunt in early July are predator-savvy adults and subadults but since the condition of the sea ice makes escape so much easier for the seals, most bears that continue to hunt are unsuccessful – and that’s been true since the 1970s. So much for the public hand-wringing over the loss of summer sea ice on behalf of polar bear survival!
The fact is, most ringed seals (the primary prey species of polar bears worldwide) move into open water to feed after they have completed their annual molt, which occurs by late June to mid-July for adults and subadults; newborn pups leave the ice soon after being weaned, usually by the end of May in southern regions (like Hudson Bay) and by late June in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, aka “CAA” (Kelly et al. 2010; Smith 1975, 1987; Whiteman et al. 2015).
Thus, the most abundant prey of polar bears is essentially unavailable after mid-July (and earlier than that in Hudson Bay).
Adults and subadults of the similarly-distributed but much larger (and less abundant) bearded seal tend to remain with the ice over the summer (Cameron et al. 2010:11-12) and are most likely to be available to polar bears that remain on the sea ice over the summer throughout the Arctic. Some adult harp seals (an abundant, strictly North Atlantic species) may also be available to bears on the pack ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, as well in the northern sections of the Barents and Kara Seas, and northern East Greenland (Sergeant 1991).
However, research on polar bear feeding has shown that from June to October, bears are rarely successful at catching seals because broken and melting ice affords so many escape routes for the seals. Bears may stalk the seals but they often get away (see video snapshot and video below)…