Patricia was nowhere near the worst tropical storm

Patricia’s supposed 320 km/h wind speed over the ocean was not actually measured. It was merely predicted by computer models based on the measured speeds thousands of feet above the surface. The evidence that it was exaggerated is the rapidity with which the winds supposedly diminished after the storm reached land, where it could be measured.…

The Real ‘Consensus’: Global Warming Causes FEWER Hurricanes

Scientists project fewer hurricanes in the future that may be slightly stronger. Research also suggests that even though hurricanes may become slightly stronger, wind patterns will drive them further out to sea, meaning fewer storms hitting Americans.

“I would characterize ‘mainstream’ science on global warming and hurricanes as thinking that there will be a slight decrease in frequency of storms but a slight increase in intensity on a global scale,” climate scientist Chip Knappenberger with the libertarian Cato Institute told The Daily Caller News Foundation Thursday.

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The e United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered the world’s top climate authority by environmentalists and scientists,found “it is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates.”

But IPCC notes the “future changes in storms are likely to be small compared to natural interannual variability,” meaning scientists won’t even be able to detect global warming’s influence on storms for some time.

“By and large, the projected changes will be pretty small compared to natural variability so may not be detectable for a long time,” Knappenberger said. “Recent trends, in whatever direction, are dominated by natural variability and thus very likely do not display a detectable global warming signal.”

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Analysis: Hurricane Patricia: ‘The most that can be claimed is that Hurricane Patricia is the strongest hurricane in Eastern Pacific in last 30 years or so’

Hurricane Patricia

By Paul Homewood Despite apocalyptic forecasts, what has been touted as “the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Americas”, has made landfall in Mexico with relatively little damage so far. According to the Telegraph: Hurricane Patricia, the record-breaking category 5 hurricane, rumbled across western Mexico early on Saturday, uprooting trees and triggering some landslides but causing less damage than feared for such a massive storm, officials said. But almost five hours after landfall, President Enrique Pena Nieto addressed the nation on television, saying that the first reports “confirm that the damages have been smaller than those corresponding to a hurricane of this magnitude.” Fortunately, no deaths have been reported yet, although the storm remains a danger as it moves inland. Claimed “record wind speeds”, of course, rely on satellite measurements that we have only had for a few decades. Prior to that, we had to rely on ship and airplane measurements that were at best patchy, and tended to underestimate wind speeds as pilots were reluctant to fly into the centre of the most powerful hurricanes, understandably! Similarly, wind speeds on landfall relied on anemometors, which weren’t always where the highest speeds were, and too often were destroyed by high winds. About the most that can be claimed, therefore, is that Hurricane Patricia is the strongest hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in the last 30 years or so. However, any suggestion that Patricia is somehow unprecedented in recent history ignores the “Mexico” hurricane of 1959, also referred to by NOAA as “the Great Hurricane of 1959”. Ironically, this hurricane made landfall at the exact same place on the coast, Manzanillo. According to Wikipedia: The hurricane had devastating effects on the places it hit. It killed at least 1,000 people directly, and a total of 1,800 people. At that time, it was Mexico’s worst natural disaster in recent times. Most of the destruction was in Colima and Jalisco. A preliminary estimate of property damage was $280 million (1959 USD). The storm sank three merchant ships, and two other vessels. On one ship, the Sinaloa, 21 of 38 hands went down. On another, the El Caribe, all hands were lost. As many as 50 total boats were sunk. A quarter of the homes in Cihuatlán, Jalisco, were totally destroyed, leaving many homeless. In Manzanillo, Colima, 40 percent of all homes were destroyed, and four ships in the harbor …