New paper finds excuse #8 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Strengthening Pacific trade winds

New paper finds excuse #8 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Pacific trade winds

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/02/new-paper-finds-excuse-8-for-pause-in.html

A paper published today in Nature Climate Change adds the eighth excuse for the ‘pause’ in global warming: strengthened Pacific trade winds, which according to the authors, were “not captured [simulated] by climate models.” On the basis of those same highly-flawed climate models, the authors predict rapid global warming will resume in a decade or so when those trade winds abate.Climate Depot Analysis: ‘There have been at least seven separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ – 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor09.02.2014Trade winds may be a significant cause of the so called global warming pause, according to new research.

An article published online today in Nature Climate Change investigates how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for 0.1C- 0.2C of cooling through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake – this is enough to account for much of the temperature slowdown in the so called global warming pause.Global average surface temperatures rose sharply during the second half of the 20th century before leveling off since the late 1990s despite a continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Scientists have yet to fully explain the recent slowdown in the rise of air temperatures attributed to the so called global warming pause that, on at least one measure, has lasted for over 17 years.Although cool surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean have been identified as a key component of this feature, it has so far been unclear how this occurs. The paper published online in Nature Climate Change this week investigates how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for 0.1–0.2°C cooling — much of the temperature slowdown — through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.Matthew England from the University of New South Wales and co-workers used observations and climate models to investigate the impact of increased trade winds on climate.They showed that when the model is forced by the irregularly strong winds, the sea surface response matches observed trends. The shallow ocean circulation loops are sped up by the intensified winds, causing increased equatorial upwelling of cool waters and the subduction of warm water, or heat drawdown, to the subsurface layer.They find that around 80% of the surface temperature cooling occurred after …

Gore: ‘Fertility management’ is needed to reduce the number of Africans to help ‘control the proliferation of unusual weather’

Excerpt From CNBC article:

Former Vice President Al Gore during a World Economic Forum session in Davos on Jan. 24, 2014 – Stopping overpopulation is one way the dangers of climate change can be mitigated, according to two of the most prominent believers in global warming.

Former Vice President Al Gore and Microsoft founder Bill Gates said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that contraception is a key in controlling the proliferation of unusual weather they say is endangering the world. “Depressing the rate of child mortality, educating girls, empowering women and making fertility management ubiquitously available … is crucial to the future shape of human civilization,” said Gore, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his work on global warming. Gore said Africa’s population is expected to surpass India’s and China’s by the mid-21st century and will be more than both combined by the end of the century.

End excerpt

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Related Links:  Flashback 2011: ‘Fertility Management’: Al Gore Calls on Women to Have Fewer Children…to Curb Pollution Reality Check on Overpopulation claims: Slate Mag on the new population problem — UNDERPOPULATION! ‘And in the long term—on the order of centuries—we could be looking at the literal extinction of humanity’ – ‘That might sound like an outrageous claim, but it comes down to simple math. According to a 2008 IIASA report, if the world stabilizes at a total fertility rate of 1.5—where Europe is today—then by 2200 the global population will fall to half of what it is today. By 2300, it’ll barely scratch 1 billion. Extend the trend line, and within a few dozen generations you’re talking about a global population small enough to fit in a nursing home’

Paging Ehrlich! Slate Mag: ‘About That Overpopulation Problem. Research suggests we may actually face a — declining world population in the coming years’ – ‘The rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today. And then it will fall’ — ‘Population decline is a very familiar concept in the rest of the developed world, where fertility has long since fallen far below the 2.1 live births per woman required to maintain population equilibrium’

Climate Depot’s Factsheet on Overpopulation – ‘Is too few people the new ‘population problem?’

PAUL EHRLICH

No Antarctic Warming Since 1979

Chris Turney is, apparently, Professor of Climate Change at the University of NSW. He is also a Director of Carbonscape Holdings, which has “developed technology to fix carbon from the atmosphere and make a host of green bi-products, helping reduce greenhouse gas levels.”

Carbonscape, a company based in New Zealand, is funded by several government bodies there, such as the Ministry of Science & Innovation, the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries, and New Zealand Trade & Enterprise.…

Warmists slapped with a cold sardine: ‘As far south as California the fishermen are complaining of cold water’

Pacific sardine populations fluctuate with water temperature. Colder water means fewer fish. Temperatures last fell in the 1940s, but heavy fishing continued, devastating the stock and ending fishing until sardines returned when waters warmed in the 1980s.

“We think this is set to happen again,” says Zwolinski, who tracked the population over the past century. He found that sardines have reproduced less since waters cooled in the 1990s.

As far south as California the fishermen are complaining of cold water:

Federal fisheries managers slashed upcoming West Coast sardine harvests by two-thirds while scientists try to get a better handle on indications the population is significantly dwindling… Populations typically drop when ocean temperatures get colder, as they have lately in conjunction with a climatic condition known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

New paper finds sea level rise has decelerated 44% since 2004 to only 7 inches per century – Published in Global and Planetary Change

New paper finds sea level rise has decelerated 44% since 2004 to only 7 inches per century

A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds global sea level rise has decelerated by 44% since 2004 to a rate equivalent to only 7 inches per century. According to the authors, global mean sea level rise from 1993-2003 was at the rate of 3.2 mm/yr, but sea level rise “started decelerating since 2004 to a rate of 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.”
The authors also find “This deceleration is mainly due to the slowdown of ocean thermal expansion in the Pacific during last decade,” which is in direct opposition to claims that the oceans “ate the global warming.” This finding debunks alarmist claims that ocean heat uptake has increased over the past decade, demonstrating instead that ocean heat uptake has decreased during the global warming pause since 2004, and has gone negative since 2007, as shown by fig. 4b indicating steric sea level rise from thermal expansion has been negative since 2007.
The paper adds to several other peer-reviewed publications finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st century, and thus no evidence of any human influence on sea level rise:

JM Gregory et al Journal of Climate 2012
M Beenstock et al 2013
NOAA 2005-2012 Sea Level Budget
Dean & Houston 2011 & 2013
Scafetta 2013
Holgate 2007
Boretti 2012
Morner 2004
Jevrejeva et al., 2006 & 2008
Wöppelmann et al., 2009
Roemmich et al 2013

IPCC 2007:
“no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone.”

IPCC 2013:
“It is likely that GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010”

 
Figures from the paper & abstract:
Fig. 2.
The instantaneous rate of interannual variability of (a) the GMSL, (b) the global mean steric sea level, and (c) the global mean ocean mass, i.e. the first-order time derivative of third IMFs shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 3.
a. Regression of total sea level (observed by altimeters) during 1993-2012 on the third IMF of the GMSL given in Fig. 1a.
b. Same as Fig. 3a but for the steric sea level.
Fig. 4.
a. The intrinsic trend of the GMSL, i.e. the first-order time-derivative of the trend function of