NASA: Sahara Dust And “Below Average Sea Surface Temperatures” Putting The Brakes On Hurricanes
At the online Spiegel magazine here science journalist and geology major Axel Bojanowski features his “Photo of the Week”, which this week shows a dust storm blowing across the East Atlantic off the African Sahara. The above photo is provided by NASA Earth Observatory, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. It shows dust sweeping off the coast of Western Sahara and Morocco on August 7, 2015. NASA writes that this is just one of several outbreaks of Saharan dust that have occurred over the Atlantic this summer. The US space agency adds this is even a positive effect on the hurricane season, in combination with another factor (my emphasis): While several factors influence hurricane formation, some research suggests that plumes of dry Saharan dust may help suppress storms over the Atlantic Ocean. In a recent update to its hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said a below-normal season appeared even more likely than it did in May. A strengthening El Niño, an atmospheric environment conducive to strong wind shear, and below average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic were cited as the primary factors limiting hurricane development. Dust outbreaks were not included as a factor because of their unpredictability, according to reporting by The Palm Beach Post. Not only is the Saharan dust playing a role on dampening the Atlantic hurricane season, it is also transporting rich nutrients that are fertilizing the ocean, the Canary Islands and even the Caribbean and South American jungle, Spiegel writes.
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El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again
Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length for the ever-Greater Pause: 18 years 4 months – and counting.
This result rather surprises me. I’d expected even a weak el Niño to have more effect that this, but it is always possible that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will come through after a lag of four or five months. On the other hand, Roy Spencer, at his always-to-the-point blog (drroyspencer.com), says: “We are probably past the point of reaching a new peak temperature anomaly from the current El Niño, suggesting it was rather weak.” I shall defer to the expert, with pleasure. For if la Niña conditions begin to cool the oceans in time, there could be quite some lengthening of the Pause just in time for the Paris world-government summit in December.
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 4 months since December 1996.
The hiatus period of 18 years 4 months, or 220 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
Given that the Paris summit is approaching and most “world leaders” are not being told the truth about the Pause, it would be a great help if readers were to do their best to let their national negotiators and politicians know that unexciting reality continues to diverge ever more spectacularly from the bizarre “settled-science” predictions on which Thermageddon was built.
The divergence between the models’ predictions in 1990 (Fig. 2) and 2005 (Fig. 3), on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, also continues to widen, and is now becoming a real embarrassment to the profiteers of doom – or would be, if the mainstream news media were actually to report the data rather than merely repeating the failed predictions of catastrophe.
Figure 2. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), for …
The research, published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change, used data collected from the array of about 3500 Argo buoys from 2006-13 to show temperatures were warming at about 0.005 degrees a year down to a depth of 500 metres and 0.002 degrees between 500-2000 metres.
The ABC don’t even mention how small the theoretical temperature change is. It’s another chance to run their favourite headline “2014 hottest on record”. Reporter Bridget Brennan didn’t ask “how much warmer are the oceans”. She didn’t ask what the error margins are either. She mentioned “international data sets” but didn’t ask if the satellites (the two best data sets) agree that 2014 was the hottest ever (they don’t). She didn’t ask about “the Pause”. The pre-ARGO data has much higher, astronomic, uncertainties.…
New paper finds oceans warming only a tiny 0.002°C-0.005°C/year since 2006
A paper published today in Nature Climate Change claims “Unabated planetary warming…since 2006” of the world’s oceans of a tiny 0.005C/year from 0-500 meter depths and an even smaller 0.002C/year for the 500-2000 meter depths. This rate is equivalent to only 0.2°C to 0.5°C ocean warming per century, far less than the 3°C global warming by 2100 central estimate of the IPCC. Examination of the paper, however, reveals multiple questionable claims and contradictions to the claims of climate alarmists and IPCC: According to the authors, “the ocean heat gain over the 0-2000 meter layer continued at a rate of 0.4-0.6 W/m2 during 2006-2013.” However, according to the IPCC, net anthropogenic forcing is warming the planet at a rate of 1.6 W/m2 or ~3.2 times more than the central estimate of this new paper. This implies a climate sensitivity about 70% less than claimed by the IPCC. Alarmists claim “90% of the ‘missing heat’ from greenhouse gases is going into the ocean,” therefore, using the central estimate of this paper of a warming rate of 0.5 W/m2, total net anthropogenic forcing of oceans + atmosphere would be 0.5*1.1 = 0.55 W/m2, again far less (66% less) than the 1.6 W/m2 net anthropogenic forcing at present claimed by the IPCC. The above estimates falsely assume, for the purposes of argument only, that all of the ocean warming is due to increased greenhouse gases. However, IR radiation from greenhouse gases cannot significantly warm the oceans for at least 3 thermodynamic reasons as outlined here and here. Changes in solar insolation modulated by cloud cover and ocean oscillations are not even considered or discussed by this paper as potential mechanisms of the ocean warming patterns noted, but are far more likely to be the cause of any warming observed. Heat rises, and surface data indicate no global warming for 18+ years. How can zero degrees atmospheric warming cause the oceans up to 2000 meters depth to warm 0.002C/yr? It cannot, without violating thermodynamics. The uncertainties of measurement of individual ARGO floats are far greater than the claimed warming Table 1 below shows all of the warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere 0-60S, whereas the Northern Hemisphere 0-60N actually cooled from 2006-2013. This warming pattern is incompatible with anthropogenic forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases, which is alleged to be relatively uniform across the …
No Warming In Antarctica During Satellite Record
By Paul Homewood According to GHG theory, it is the poles which should be warming fastest. Apparently, nobody told the South Pole. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt Even in summer months, satellites show no trend. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt And to complete the picture, Southern Ocean temperatures have been way below average since 2005. https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/01/07/december-2014-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/
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New paper finds excuse #55 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Reduced warming in N. Atlantic subpolar gyre – Published in Journal of Climate
New paper finds excuse #55 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Reduced warming in N. Atlantic subpolar gyre
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds, “the sea level rise in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre developed at a reduced rate in the 2000s compared to rates in the 1990s” and “the heat content balance ([is assumed] equivalent [to] variations in the sea level)” and that this “low-frequency variability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre relates to the propagation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations from the deep-water formation region to mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic, which might have the implications for recent global surface warming hiatus.” Thus, a decline in the rate of heat content and thermosteric sea level rise of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre affected the propagation [speed] of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and might be a cause for the “recent global surface warming hiatus.” A prior paper has also related the “hiatus” to natural variability of heat content changes in the AMOC, but not specifically related to the North Atlantic subpolar gyre as in this new paper. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre has been linked to the natural North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], which in-turn has been linked to solar activity. The paper adds to many others attempting to explain the 18-26 year “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Journal of Climate 2014 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00670.1 Climate signals in the mid to high latitude North Atlantic from altimeter observations Feili Li1,2 Young-Heon Jo1,3 Xiao-Hai Yan1,4W. Timothy Liu5 1 College of Earth, Ocean and Environment, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 2 now at Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 3 now at Department of Oceanography, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea 4 University of Delaware/Xiamen University Joint Institute of Coastal Research and Management, Newark, DE 5 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 300-323, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA Abstract The variability of the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic for the period of 1993 – 2010 was investigated using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition to identify the dominant timescales. Sea level variations in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) are dominated by the annual cycle and the long-term increasing trend. In comparison, the SSHA along the Gulf Stream (GS) is dominated by variability at intra-seasonal and annual timescales. …