#Matthew takes aim on Florida, likely to end 4000 day major hurricane drought for USA
…US Atmospheric Scientist Sees No Link Between Hurricanes And Global Warming Over Past 30 Years
Atmospheric research scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach at Twitter here tweeted a chart showing that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has not risen at all in 30 years, despite earlier massive hype and hollering by climate scientists and media, who insist “man-made” global warming is causing more frequent and intense cyclones.
In fact Klotzbach’s plot above shows that there has even been a modest decline.
So I tweeted a question to Dr. Klotzbach, and he was kind to answer as follows:
As the reader will note, Klotzbach does not see any link between cyclone activity and global warming over the past 30 years.
If we roughly plot CO2 levels vs ACE, no statistical analysis is needed to tell us that there is no correlation, except of course that rising atmospheric CO2 concentration might be causing a little bit less cyclone activity (which is the OPPOSITE of what is claimed by alarmists):
Plot of ACE since 1980 vs atmospheric CO2 concentration. ACE has dropped a bit. CO2 chart from NOAA.
Global temperatures have also risen since 1980 (many arguing it has more to do with ocean and solar cycles, and less so with CO2). Yet, here as well a temperature increase over the period has not led to a rising trend in cyclone activity.
The paper Dr. Klotzbach refers to can be seen here. He writes in the abstract:
Ten years ago, Webster et al. documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well as the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for all global basins from 1970 to 2004, and this manuscript examines whether those trends have continued when including 10 additional years of data. In contrast to that study, as shown here, the global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend while the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant upward trend between 1990 and 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally has experienced a large and significant downward trend during the same period. The primary reason for the increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes noted in observational datasets from 1970 to 2004 by Webster et al. is concluded to be due to observational improvements at the various global tropical cyclone warning centers, primarily in the first two decades of that study.
Globally, the year 2015 saw
Meteorologist Bastardi: Hurricane Hermine a Poor Example to Push Man-Made Global Warming
I read this article with great interest, given what I do for a living:
“Clinton says Hurricane Hermine was caused by climate change as hurricane drought persists.”
I have watched and forecasted hurricanes on a professional level for almost 40 years. So what Mrs. Clinton is asking people like me to believe is that a storm that took 15 days to develop and then hit Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, and then never re–strengthened off the Mid-Atlantic in spite of record warm water, is a sign of extremes. Actually, I am sure she doesn’t care that people like me show the facts, since the idea is to get it out there and rely on the idea that the media will gladly pick it up, publicize it and, once the horse is out of the barn, know there is no way to get it back. In reality, portraying Hermine as some kind of climate change demon is either ignorance as to the history of hurricanes or deceit.
Let me show the reader why I make these statements. I will go to a time when CO2 was much lower to illustrate my point. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so I will keep this short. Let’s just cherry pick the track of Florida hurricanes from 1950-1974 when CO2 was well below what it is now.…
Flashback NOAA 1974: ‘Extreme weather events blamed on global cooling’
In the 1970s, extreme weather events were blamed on global cooling
Interestingly, in the 1970s it was common for severe weather anomalies (for example, the deadly catastrophic drought plodding throughout the continent of Africa) to be linked to the global cooling occurring at that time. In 1974, NOAA acknowledged that many climate scientists had linked the drought and other extreme weather anomalies to the -0.5°C drop in temperatures that had occurred from the 1940s to 1970s.
“In the Sahelian zone of Africa south of the Sahara, the countries of Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Upper Volta are enduring a drought that in some areas has been going on for more than six years now, following some 40 previous years of abundant monsoon rainfall. And the drought is spreading—eastward into Ehtiopia and southward into Dahomey, Egypt, Guinea, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and Zaire. … Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world. … Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes. A drop of only one or two degrees Centigrade in the annual average temperature at higher latitudes can shorten the growing season so that some crops have to be abandoned. … [T]he average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries. … Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in India—indeed, through much of Asia, the world’s hungriest continent. … Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an “ice age.”
But, like now, there were still a collection of scientists willing to reconsider the common-knowledge “beliefs” of the time. For example, Boer and Higuchi (1980) investigated the “belief” that more extreme climate variability accrued as temperatures cooled, concluding that …
25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…
25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires…
It has by now become common practice for just about any and every unusual weather occurrence, extreme temperature anomaly, or seismic event to be somehow, someway linked to the human practice of using energy derived from fossil fuels. No hurricane, flood, drought, storm, wildfire … is spared from potential anthropogenic implication.
Last week, a named hurricane (Hermine) that ultimately devolved into a tropical storm landed along the Florida coast — the first landfall in 11 years. As expected, the usual suspects reflexively blamed the storm on humans.
When a volcano erupts, the headliners are quick to point out that humans have made volcanic eruptions more likely.
When wildfires consume the landscape, human-caused warming is claimed to be fueling them.
In one year, human-caused warming can be said to be a cause of catastrophic drought in Texas.
“2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says”
A few years later, human-caused warming leads to catastrophic flooding in Texas.
Even shifting plates beneath the Earth’s crust (earthquakes) can be creatively connected to human-caused climate change.
Those who may dare to question the link between humanity’s growing oil, gas, and coal consumption and a weather or tectonic event are swiftly called “climate deniers,” and the substantive discussion that never happened (and was never going to happen) ends then and there.
In the 1970s, extreme weather events were blamed on global cooling
Interestingly, in the 1970s it was common for severe weather anomalies (for example, the deadly catastrophic drought plodding throughout the continent of Africa) to be linked to the global cooling occurring at that time. In 1974, NOAA acknowledged that many climate scientists had linked the drought and other extreme weather anomalies to the -0.5°C drop in temperatures that had occurred from the 1940s to 1970s.
“In the Sahelian zone of Africa south of the Sahara, the countries of Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Upper Volta are enduring a drought that in some areas has been going on for more than six years now, following some 40 previous years of abundant monsoon rainfall. And the drought is spreading—eastward into Ehtiopia and
Rare Event! Millions of Children Under 12 See First Ever Hurricane Hit Florida!
‘Floods are not increasing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘global warming’ link to floods & extreme weather – How does media ‘get away with this?’
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), slammed the linkage of global warming to the recent Louisiana floods and other types of extreme weather. (See: Bill Nye: Climate change is reason for Louisiana floods)
Pielke authored the 2014 book “The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.”
“Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either,” Pielke Jr. declared on August 23. Pielke rebuked New York Times columnist Paul Krugman for linking floods to climate change. Krugman blamed “climate change” for ‘a proliferation of disasters like the one in Louisiana.’
“How does Krugman get away with this?” Pielke asked while showcasing this scientific graph.
“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage is sharply down over 70 years,” Pielke explained.
In a message aimed at climate activists and many in the media, Pielke cautioned: “Remember, disasters can happen any time and they suck. But it is also good to understand long-term trends based on data, not hype.”
“In my career I’ve seen the arguments go from: 1- ‘Drought increasing globally’ — To — 2- ‘OK, not globally, but look at THIS one drought.’ I’ll stick with the UN IPCC and the USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program) consensus rather than selected studies. Both of those agree there is no global or U.S. trend though literature is diverse,” Pielke wrote.
Extreme weather is NOT getting worse
Pielke also pointed to the hard scientific data that shows other types of extreme weather are not getting worse and may in fact be improving.
“Is U.S. drought getting worse? No,” Pielke wrote and revealed this EPA graph:
Professor Pielke Jr. also noted: “US hurricane landfalls (& their strength) down by ~20% since 1900” and provided this graph.
“Recent years have seen record low tornadoes,” Pielke Jr. added with this data from NOAA.
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Related Links:
New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.
Al …
Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: ‘Will We Reach 4,000 Days Since a Major Hurricane Strike?’
In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S., which was Wilma on October 24, 2005.
Wilma was a record-setter, being the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with peak estimated sustained winds of 183 mph and lowest surface pressure of 882 mb. That surface pressure corresponds to a 13% removal of atmospheric mass in the core of the hurricane compared to normal sea level pressure.
But after the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, with a whopping 27 named tropical storms, the bottom pretty much dropped out of hurricane activity since then.…
WaPo: ‘The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying’
Warmist Tries to Justify 11-year Hurricane Drought in New York Times Op-Ed
The New York Times ran an op-ed today by Adam Sobel, an “atmospheric scientist at Columbia.” The gist of Sobel’s article: Since 2005, the United States has been experiencing a hurricane “drought” (i.e., no category 3 or higher hurricane has made landfall in 11 years.) But don’t worry, Sobel says, there will be more hurricanes soon, and the fact that they will be coming is proof of man-made climate change.
Yes, that’s what he’s saying.
The question is whether Sobel is writing the op-ed to buck himself up, or hoping to cheerlead the rest of the alarmist crowd. After all, the computer models that have predicted global warming have also predicted more hurricanes. But real-life observations continue to divergefrom what computer models have actually predicted.
It’s somewhat baffling that the New York Timeswould publish such an essentially meaningless opinion. But the mainstream media have long since thrown in its lot with the alarmist crowd.
Regardless, there are problems with Sobel’s op-ed…
Sobel says that “significant global warming, over a degree and a half Fahrenheit, has already occurred since preindustrial days.” That’s essentially accurate. The Earth has warmed by roughly 0.8 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s. But whether one views it as “significant” depends on context. Given the accumulatingevidence of global climate changes over the past few thousand years, such a net increase over a span of roughly 130 years seems relatively mild—and typical of the climate variations seen during the latter part of the current interglacial epoch.
There’s also the greater issue of cause. Sobel naturally assumes that this increase in temperatures is driven entirely by increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). But many climate skeptics would argue that this mild uptick is the result of a large-scale increase in solar output over the past 130 years. And while solar irradiance has increased in that time, it is the associated variations in solar winds and the solar magnetic field that contribute significantly to changes in global climate, thanks to their influence on atmospheric ionization and cloud formation.…