Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Answers AP’s Seth Borenstein’s questions on Typhoon Hiayan: ‘The scientific evidence does not presently support claims of attribution of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on tropical cyclone behavior with respect to century-long trends ‘much less the behavior of individual storms’

Special to Climate Depot

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Also a Research Fellow, Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University

Dr. Pielke responded to questions about Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda from Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press on November 11, 2013. 

Pielke Jr.: Seth Borenstein of AP sent me an email asking some questions, my quotes didn’t make it into his story, but here they are in 2 comments:

Here are ten questions:

1. What human factors do you see in play here in Typhoon Haiyan?

Roger Pielke Jr.: If you are referring to the physical qualities of Haiyan, then I will defer to the recent IPCC AR5: “In summary, this assessment does not revise the SREX conclusion of low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.”

That means that the scientific evidence does not presently support claims of attribution of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on tropical cyclone behavior with respect to century-long trends (much less the behavior of individual storms). The IPCC AR5 cites some of our peer-reviewed work in its report (Weinkle et al. 2012, Journal of Climate).

Our peer-reviewed work suggests that assuming model predictions for future changes in tropical cyclone behavior are perfectly accurate (for a range of models) that it will be many decades, even centuries, before such a signal can be detected in trend data. More generally, I have written: “In practical terms, on timescales of decision making a signal that cannot be seen is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist”

Of course, there are scientists willing to go beyond what can be supported empirically to make claims at odds with the overwhelming scientific consensus on this subject — e.g., Mann, Francis, Masters are always good for inscrutable and unsupportable quotes. Such outlier views are welcomed, as help to push science forward. But they are also a minefield for journalists, politicians and activists who may cherry pick them as if they are somehow representative.

2. What about poverty and coastal development? How much of those were as factors?

RP: In general there is an inverse relationship between loss of life and property damage. The wealthier nations become the less loss of life in big disasters (again, in general). …

In wake of Typhoon Haiyan, Actor George Clooney declares global warming skeptics to be ‘stupid’ and ‘ridiculous’ – Watch Video

Actor George Clooney declared the arguments of global warming skeptics to be “stupid” and “ridiculous.” Clooney made the remarks to reporters on the eve of Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines. He was attending the BAFTA Britannia Awards in Beverly Hills on Saturday night November 9.

“Well it’s just a stupid argument,” Clooney said on the red carpet, referring to the dissenters of man-made global warming.

“If you have 99 percent of doctors who tell you ‘you are sick’ and 1 percent that says ‘you’re fine,’ you probably want to hang out with, check it up for the 99. You know what I mean? The idea that we ignore that we are in some way involved in climate change is ridiculous. What’s the worst thing that happens? We clean up the earth a little bit?”

“I find this to be the most ridiculous argument ever,” Clooney explained.

Clooney added that he was unsure whether global warming was responsible for the Typhoon that devastated the Philippines.

A Climate Depot special report has found scientists have rejected any link to man-made global warming. See: Media/Climate Activists ‘Hype False Claims’ About Typhoon Haiyan As Scientists Reject Climate Link – Claim of ‘strongest storm ever’ refuted

Clooney’s claim of “99 percent” of scientists agreeing about man-made global warming has been challenged in peer-reviewed studies and other analyses. See: Contrary to reports, global warming studies don’t show 97% of scientists fear global warming: ‘The 97% figure represented just 75 individuals’ – – Another study’s ‘results add up to little more than ‘carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas’ and ‘mankind affects the climate.’

Related Links: 

Analysis: 97% of warmists cite a 97% that’s false

Contrary to reports, global warming studies don’t show 97% of scientists fear global warming: ‘The 97% figure represented just 75 individuals’ – – Another study’s ‘results add up to little more than ‘carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas’ and ‘mankind affects the climate.’

SPECIAL REPORT: More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Challenge UN IPCC & Gore

CONSENSUS? WHAT 97% CONSENSUS? — ‘The consensus revealed by the paper by Cook et al. is so broad that it incorporates the views of most prominent climate skeptics’

Warmist Mike Hulme: “The “97% consensus” article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed…it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country that